558
FXUS63 KDTX 111739
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1239 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow/rain chances this today and tonight. Little to no snow
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures warm Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lake moisture release on the lead edge of strengthening southwest
flow has support widespread MVFR development late this morning. This
lower cloud is expected to gradually scatter through the afternoon
favoring lower VFR as moisture flux off the lake is advected north
of the region with modestly drier low level air pushing in from the
south. Elevated warm frontal boundary lifting through lower MI this
afternoon offers a low chance for an drizzle however with drier low
level air coverage/impact not anticipated to warrant mention in
TAFs. Southwest winds gust 20-25kts through the evening. With strong
winds aloft, an isolated gust towards 25-30kts can`t be ruled out
tonight though given the time of day, overall potential for frequent
gusts of that magnitude is low.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  High in ceilings aob 5000 feet early afternoon and again
   overnight. Moderate late afternoon-evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

DISCUSSION...

Troughing extends across the eastern CONUS today with a low
amplitude ridge expected to pass over Michigan early today. Low
level flow has turned more west to northwest early this morning,
which has pushed the more organized intense lake effect snow across
the northern Thumb offshore. Another cold start to the day as
temperatures are down into the 20s with wind chills in the teens.

Right on the heels of this ridge will be a low amplitude trough with
a 40+ knot low level jet nosing into southeast Michigan early this
afternoon. Strong southwest flow will drive warm advection and bring
isentropic ascent over southeast Michigan. Soundings pointing
towards a fair amount of dry air in the low levels. Near the onset
of precipitation, there looks to be enough saturation within the DGZ
for light snow. As the afternoon progresses, dry air starts to strip
moisture below -10C and we start to lose cloud ice. This would lead
to a transition to or a mixing in of light rain/drizzle. By the time
this transition occurs, surface air temperatures are expected to be
up at least into the mid 30s. The strong low level wind environment
will bring potential for some gusty conditions today. Though, the
warm southwest flow may keep mixing depths from increasing too much.
Expecting southwest gusts mostly in the 20 to 25 mph range with a
few gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Another shortwave will move into the central Great Lakes tonight.
Additional left exit region upper level jet support will maintain
low PoPs into tonight. Cloud ice appears lacking based on forecast
soundings for some spots, so isolated to scattered areas of light
rain/drizzle mixed with flurries will be possible. Overnight lows
drop to around freezing, presenting at least a low chance to see
pockets freezing drizzle. Very low confidence at this time in
occurrence, but the more the likely area would be along the Irish
Hills.

Back end of the trough with embedded shortwaves will keep low PoPs in
the forecast for Wednesday. Moisture depth continues to lack, but
light precipitation in the form of rain will be possible as warm
advection lifts temperatures up into the low-mid 40s. Heights begin
to rise Wednesday evening into Thursday, which will bring an end to
precipitation chances. Influence of a surface high pressure will
keep weather dry through the end of the work week as temperatures
warm each day and reach the low 50s for much of interior southeast
Michigan for Friday. Temperatures at 850mb are forecast to climb to
10C and above, which will allow daytime highs to make a run towards
60 degrees, especially for southern portions of the CWA on Sunday.
Troughing also starts to make a return this weekend. This brings the
next chances for rain with the highest chance currently focused
Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE...

Surface ridging briefly builds into the Great Lakes through the
morning, but will quickly be dislodged east by inbound surface
troughing anchored to Ontario low pressure. As this occurs,
southwest flow ramps up into the evening as a strong SW low level
jet (50-55 knots) surges across the Ohio Valley. With Lake Huron on
the northern fringe of the jet and short fetch over western Lake
Erie, it will be tough to get frequent enough gusts to gales to
warrant Gale headlines. Still, could see some isolated gusts in
excess of 35+ knots especially over Saginaw Bay and western Lake
Erie. Breezy southwest winds will be accompanied by a light rain-
snow mix as the trough moves overhead Tuesday night-Wednesday
morning. A second window of gale potential exists Wednesday evening
over northern Lake Huron on the backside of the trough as winds
shift W/NW. The wind field itself is not very impressive (35-40
knots), and will struggle to produce gale force gusts even in the
most well-mixed conditions. Conditions are too marginal to warrant a
watch at this time. Nearshore zones, however, will see an extended
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions as several episodes of
elevated wind/wave action are expected through Thursday. Quieter
conditions then prevail to start the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV


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