


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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060 FXUS63 KDTX 221228 CCA AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED... National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and seasonable temperatures today. - Heat and humid increase Wednesday with heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s - Thursday will be the hottest day of the week with heat indices possibly exceeding 100F; some storms are also possible, especially overnight. - Warm and muggy conditions persist Friday with additional shower/storm chances into the weekend. && .AVIATION... A warm advection pattern aloft brings in scattered/patches of mid clouds (10-12 kft) today. Otherwise, low level moisture will be lean, but may be enough to support a few VFR (4500-5000 ft) based diurnal cu this afternoon. Clear skies expected this evening/tonight. Very light easterly or variable winds will veer to the southeast today, with a slight increase in speeds during the afternoon due to diurnal mixing, but still under 10 knots. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the TAF period. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure slides into the eastern Great Lakes today while the central CONUS ridge amplifies across the Midwest/Great Lakes through mid-week and set the stage for a notable warming trend. Surface winds will adjust accordingly this afternoon and become southeasterly. These lower level wind fields offer one more day of comfortable dewpoints that will be in the 50s today with most locations seeing daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Deep layer dry air and ridging will keep the weather dry today. Thermal ridge folds into the central Great Lakes tomorrow with flow becoming more south to southwest. This will usher in higher dewpoints into the 60s and the warmer 850 mb temperatures to near 20C are drawn across southeast Michigan. A muggy day will be in store with heat indices climbing into the upper 80s for most of southeast Michigan and low 90s achievable across the Saginaw Valley. Consensus is still to keep southeast Michigan free of precipitation as shortwave energy directs convection to the north across northern Michigan and/or northern Lower Michigan. Thursday will be more than likely be the hottest and most humid day of the week as 850mb temperatures climb above 20C. Latest guidance is offering dewpoints into the mid 70s, which is possible, but tend to be a little skeptical this far out to achieve these high of dewpoints of 75 to 76 while also seeing high temperatures into the mid 90s. If southeast Michigan in fact does see some of these high dewpoints, then the high likely be more low 90s. Feel that lower 70s dewpoints are more plausible, especially looking at current observations across the lower Midwest. Another factor to watch out for will be possible cloud cover nearby given the frontal features to our north and the associated convection that could mess with high temperatures. All that to say, outgoing forecast will continue to highlight heat indices topping 100 degrees on Thursday, but below the 105 degrees needed for Extreme Heat criteria. A heat advisory will be needed if greater cloud cover and convection appears like it will hold to the north through the bulk of the day. Canadian troughing and shortwave features will work to flatten the ridge into Thursday evening and overnight while supporting convection along a south sagging boundary. This will bring the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm on Thursday and through Friday. MUCAPEs remain supportive of thunderstorms through the overnight period with PWAT in the 1.75 to 2.00 inch range supporting heavy rainfall potential. Only minor relief from the heat and humidity on Friday with high temperatures holding in the 80s. Zonal flow into the weekend will continue to offer an unsettled pattern with shortwave features streaming in from the west bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. MARINE... Winds shift to the SE this morning as the center of high pressure slides into Quebec though remaining light (less than 15kts). Low pressure over the northern Plains then lifts a warm front through the central Great Lakes Wednesday. Storm chances look to be confined to the northern half of the Lake Huron Wednesday-Thursday owing to closer proximity to the low. These chances then expand over the rest of the region Thursday night through late week as the attendant cold front sags through the Great Lakes. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SF DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......KDK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.