116
FXUS63 KDTX 020405
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1205 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool through Saturday with highs near/below 80F.

- Surface-level Canadian wildfire smoke returns Saturday afternoon
and evening.

- Mostly dry conditions expected through early next week with
temperatures returning to near-normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...

Extended stretch of dry and stable conditions through the upcoming
weekend governed by a sprawling area of high pressure. This ensures
VFR conditions through the taf period with limited cloud development
and light winds with some variability at times as the high drifts
through.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the
duration of the TAF period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

DISCUSSION...

Seasonably cool conditions today (5F to 6F below climo) with
dewpoints at their lowest levels in about 10 days (below 50F).
Diurnal cumulus field is expected to wane this evening with mainly
clear skies overnight. Decreasing northeasterly gradient winds and
low cloud fraction allow for sufficient nocturnal radiation cooling,
bringing overnight lows down into the low to mid 50s. Surface high
pressure continues to drift across the upper Midwest, settling over
Wisconsin by Saturday morning. A bit warmer on Saturday (highs near
80F) as the airmass gradually moderates into the back-half of the
weekend. Precipitation-free weather persists as a low-level
anticyclone builds eastward, into Lower Michigan. Main forecast
concern will be the renewed influx of Canadian wildfire smoke
(mainly from Saskatchewan and Manitoba) Saturday afternoon amidst
more favorable trajectories and increasing column subsidence. Added
a NDFD mention based on support for near-surface smoke per the HRRR
and RAP. See EGLE`s Air Quality Alert (AQA) for additional details.

Sunday ushers in a return to near-normal readings (highs in the
lower 80s) as surface ridging starts to break down, flipping light
winds southeasterly. This drives weak warm advection with 850 mb
temperatures climbing back into the (low) teens (Celsius). A dry
forecast is maintained to close out the weekend. Split-flow aloft
lends minimal dynamic support for any low-end convective potential
through the first half of next week as dewpoints climb back into the
60s. Temperatures eventually trend a bit warmer than average, back
into the mid 80s for weekday highs. Meager lapse rates aloft and
broader surface dewpoint depressions limit chances for storms
through Tuesday. Next opportunity for any appreciable QPF comes in
isolated to scattered fashion Wednesday as dewpoints ascend into the
mid 60s. Some storms are possible once a low amplitude shortwave
trough lifts in from the south.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to hold over the Great Lakes this
afternoon bringing light northerly winds and lower wave heights. The
high will settle over the region resulting in a period of benign
marine weather through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......DRK/SS


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