252
FXUS63 KDTX 060009
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
809 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light scattered showers could continue into tonight mainly south
  of I-94.

- Dry tonight through Saturday, except a slight chance of showers
  near the southern Michigan border.

- Another chance of showers Sunday-Tuesday with slightly below
  normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure encroaching from the northwest as a frontal boundary
remains stalled across northern OH. This has brought a clearing
across the north at FNT/MBS with lingering MVFR clouds and pockets
of rain showers and haze this evening. Models continue to show the
low level moisture and clouds holding in place across the southern
metro terminals into tomorrow morning given proximity to the
boundary. Should begin to see better clearing into VFR by tomorrow
afternoon with a better push of dry air. Winds expected to hold out
of the northeast to around 5 knots.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings below 5000 feet through tonight. Moderate for
  Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

DISCUSSION...

The cold front has been southeast of the area all day but stay
fairly stationary. High pressure behind the front covers most of MI
outside of the far SE CWA from Port Huron down through Jackson which
is still dealing with deeper moisture and a weak region of
deformation from the most recent wave riding along the front through
Ohio. Though the drier air from the ridge is continue to work
farther southward through the CWA, there is enough forcing and
moisture (PWAT of 1.5 inches) to keep some light rain showers or
drizzle going a while longer through the day. Subsidence will
efficiently scour out the mid level moisture tonight across the area
leaving the residual low level moisture down mainly south of I94. So
with the front so close, and some potential for a weak shortwave to
ripple along, will leave the slight chance mention in for tonight.

Friday should be dry across most of SE MI but there is a signal for
a low to ripple along the front Friday afternoon which could push a
little more moisture back northwest into far southeast MI, but
confidence is low with all the dry air north of the front so will
keep the shower mention in just for the far south during peak
heating when lapse rates peak and hints of non-zero CAPE can
develop. Otherwise expect temps to rebound back into the mid 70s for
all locations with the ridge building over.

High pressure will hold over the region heading into the weekend
with mid level ridging also commencing on Saturday as the current
trough sliding across Canada pulls away from the Great Lakes. Its a
pseudo zonal pattern with the shortwave ridge over the region so not
expecting temps to change much through the weekend, remaining in
the mid 70s for the most part.

A weak shortwave trough tracks south of the MI border Saturday night
which is not supposed to impact SE MI, expect spreading clouds
across the area. Next notable chance of precipitation comes Sunday
night as a cold front sweeps through the region. Upper low then
parks over the region heading into next week with a second front
possible Monday night. Not expecting as dramatic of temperature
drops with this upper low as the 850mb temps are only expecting to
drop to around 8C. So temps should remain just below climate normals
for early June.

MARINE...

Shower coverage continues to wane across the southern marine areas
this evening, while points north maintain clear skies. A weak low
pressure system develops and glances across the Ohio Valley on
Friday, but with little fanfare aside from pop up showers during the
afternoon again for the southern marine zones. Winds take on a
northerly trajectory with sustained speeds holding under 10 knots.
High pressure then fills in to the Great Lakes this weekend which
supports seasonable temperatures and dry conditions Saturday and
most of Sunday. An upper low then drifts out of northwest Canada
toward the Midwest Sunday night, bringing unsettled conditions to
the area early next week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......MV


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