490
FXUS63 KDTX 060950
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
550 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures with lower humidity with exist through
early next week.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure over the region will result in VFR conditions through
the day. Clear skies early this morning will become at least SCT
with diurnal cu with potentially on hour or two of BKN coverage
before the dry air can scour them out this evening. Clear skies and
calm winds tonight will again lead to patches of shallow fog but
we`ll monitor trends to see if vsby restrictions will be possible at
any of the taf sites. Winds will be light but out of the northeast
today before going calm tonight.

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

Sfc high pressure will strengthen as it expands across the Great
Lakes today through Labor Day amid rising mid level geopotential
heights across the region. Northeasterly low level winds circulating
around this sfc high have been advecting a drier airmass across Se
Mi, characterized by sfc dewpoints in the 50s. Mid level subsidence
will suppress diurnal mixing depths this afternoon capping afternoon
highs in the 70s. Steep low level lapse rates and flow off Lake Huron
will also result in a fair amount of diurnal cumulus this afternoon.
The influence of the sfc high and mid level ridging will sustain a
dry forecast through Tuesday. As the sfc high pressure departs across
the eastern Great Lakes Labor Day into Tuesday there will be a
gradual veering of the low level flow from easterly to southerly by
Tuesday, supporting a gradual warming trend. The influence of the sfc
high and broad subsidence will maintain relatively tranquil
conditions to end the holiday weekend and start the work week. Recent
rainfall, an easterly component to the surface winds off the lakes
and nocturnal boundary layer decoupling suggests some semblance of a
fog potential the next couple of nights.

Damping of the mid level ridge axis over the Great Lakes is forecast
mid week as a progressive longer wavelength trough originating from
the Pacific Northwest drives a cold front across the forecast area
in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame. A narrow axis of deep
layer moisture is forecast to advect into Se Mi along/ahead of this
front. While strong mid level wind fields will contribute to adequate
deep layer shear, GFS/ECMWF ensemble members indicate an overall
weakly unstable environment across Se Mi. This would potentially
limit the thunderstorm and severe weather risk. Shower chances will
still remain warranted, with ensemble members suggesting the higher
rain chances across the northern portions of the forecast area where
models indicate a little better kinematic forcing.

MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions are forecast through the rest of the
weekend as high pressure settles over the central Great Lakes. This
will promote stable and mainly dry conditions into early next week
with prevailing tranquility. The next chance for increasing winds
and waves arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a low
pressure system. Strengthening Gulf-modified southwesterly flow and
the low`s associated warm then cold fronts should lead to rising
thunderstorm chances midweek.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......KGK


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.