360
FXUS63 KDTX 101652
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1252 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of thunderstorms exists this evening into Tuesday and
  again on Wednesday, with greater potential near the Ohio border.
  Isolated storms may become severe, capable of producing damaging
  winds, large hail and heavy rainfall.

- Dry weather is expected to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Brief MVFR stratocu with limited coverage transitions to increasing
cumulus during the afternoon on the heels of weakening subsidence
that trailed the morning storm complex. Low end VFR ceiling is most
likely toward the weak front stalled near the Ohio border which also
provides a diffuse focus for a stray thunderstorm late in the day or
this evening. There is also a chance of storms again late tonight
and early in the morning, mainly near and south of DTW, as the
stalled front remains the focus and/or runway for activity that
develops upstream toward the mid MS valley. Trends even farther west
and later tonight also have a chance to carry eastward into southern
Lower Mi Tuesday afternoon.

D21/DTW Convection... Time windows for a chance of thunderstorms are
focused mainly late this afternoon, late tonight, and again Tuesday
afternoon.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms this evening, overnight, and Tuesday
  afternoon.

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

Little variation in the underlying environment will exist through
the early week period, as conditions remain governed by a seasonably
moist and unstable profile held within prevailing lower amplitude
west-northwest upper level flow. Convective expansion underway
upstream early this morning, tied to engagement of low level jet
forcing into a stalled frontal zone and deeper instability
reservoir. Observational and radar trends paired by latest CAMs
guidance confirm expectation for some form of this activity to
arrive locally thru mid morning, given sufficient elevated
instability now in residence. Strongest cores will be capable of
producing hail and brief heavy downpours.

Dry conditions otherwise favored for most, if not all locations
today. Tangible forcing remains elusive as greater evidence exists
for meaningful ascent associated with minor perturbations lodged in
the mean flow to hold just to the south late today and early
tonight. There remains a lower probability outcome for the northern
expanse of any northern Ohio valley activity to glance across areas
generally south of I-94, with this corridor most susceptible given
proximity to the main instability gradient. Enough bulk shear exists
to afford some convective organization should this scenario emerge,
with SPC highlighting this corridor for isolated strong wind/large
hail potential. Seasonable temperatures peaking in the mid 80s.

Conditional convective potential will exist both Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the forecast tenuously relying on proper allocation
of additional shortwaves and resulting MCS activity spilling east-
southeast and across the local area versus holding to the south.
Mixed signal exists each day on the possibility, with an
unsurprisingly wide range of outcomes offered within the model
spectrum. Outgoing forecast will continue to highlight a moderate
probability for rainfall, with a focus for the late day period and
greater potential with southward extent. Stagnant thermal profile
means a continuation of highs in the lower to mid 80s.

Amplified upper trough anchored over eastern Canada will lead to
broader confluent northwest flow developing across the great lakes
for the end of the work week. This will result in deep layer
subsidence and mid level drying as a broad 1020+ mb anticyclone
builds southeast into the region. This will provide a more
discernible shift in storm track south of the area. Highs will edge
slightly lower this period - highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

MARINE...

A slow moving, stalled frontal boundary will impact the region
through middle parts of the week, leaving varying wind directions at
times and winds generally less than 20 knots. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are possible through mid-week, especially across Lake
Erie where chances are greater for severe weather and strong
thunderstorm winds. By mid to late week, a weakly organized area of
low pressure becomes develops across the Northeast, followed by high
pressure of 30.1 inches gradually dropping southeast across the
central and eastern Great Lakes. This will favor an uptick in
northwest winds Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......JA


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