700
FXUS63 KDTX 032344
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
644 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold weather will persist through early Monday. Wind chills are
forecast to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above zero.

- Light snow and flurries continue into the evening. Highest chances
for minor accumulations will be across the Saginaw Valley and
northern Thumb, with up to an inch possible.

- Accumulating snowfall is expected once again Sunday night - mainly
north of M-59. Greatest amounts, 1 to 3 inches, will be along and
north of I-69.

- A switch to warmer weather comes next week with temperatures near
or above 40 through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area of light snow will persist into the late evening period, before
steadily decreasing in coverage prior to midnight. Observational and
radar trends continue to indicate primarily VFR conditions
conditions in falling snow, but with some brief interludes of MVFR
possible at times. Winds remain relatively light from the west. VFR
cloud lingers into the early morning hours. There remains strong
indication for some degree of clearing to emerge late tonight and
Sunday morning as a ridge of high pressure transits the region.
Renewed expansion of lower cloud within the 2500 to 3500 ft layer
expected again Sunday afternoon. Warm front lifting through the
region will provide a focus for light snow development Sunday night,
with higher probability and longer duration potential from PTK
northward.

For DTW... Window for light snow through 02Z. Trace amount of
accumulation is the most likely scenario for the terminal area as
rates remain light.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet this afternoon and evening.

* High for snow as precip type.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

Pockets of light snow are working east-southeast through the central
Great Lakes region this afternoon. Hence, the mottled appearance on
the regional radar imagery. Plenty of mid/upper level forcing,
associated with an unbalanced exit region of an incoming jet streak,
for crystal production - however, the presence of a rather deep near
surface dry layer is challenging the flake survival to the surface.
In areas of better rates, greater concentration of flakes can make
it to the ground. Currently, occasional visibility reduction below 2-
mi in light snow is being observed - otherwise, just a few flurries.

A secondary impulse of forcing is expected this evening across
central Lower Michigan. A narrow / shallow ribbon of moist
isentropic ascent is expected aloft around the 290-Ks surface
supporting a little steadier production of light snow. This forcing
will be atop a zone of lower tropospheric cold advection settling
south across Lake Huron, which will contribute to frontal zone
sharpening and within-front increased saturation across the Saginaw
Valley and Thumb regions. Expect up to an inch across this region,
with lighter amounts to the south - managing maybe a dusting across
the Metro Detroit region.

Sunday will be cloudy, cold, and quiet. Meanwhile, a quick moving
system will emerge out of the central Rockies region early Sunday
and zip across the Plains into the Great Lakes region by Sunday
night. The wave will be flattening rather quickly as it enters the
downstream cyclonically curved geopotential field overhead.
Furthermore, the limited scale of the wave suggests that timing and
trajectory still have some opportunity for alteration. Given
Southeast Michigan will be along the southern periphery of the
precipitation shield, the degree of influence across the Metro
Detroit region and points south remains in question. A solid low-
level jet will be induced by the wave/upper jet interaction -
apexing across Northern Lower Michigan then folding anti-
cyclonically into the Saginaw Bay region. The veering nature
suggests the forcing will waning, as the system sweeps through the
immediate area. Snow field will be mainly associated with the
surging warm front and the period of accumulating snow will only be
few hours with the greatest intensity closest to the nose of the low-
level jet. A quick 1-3 inches is expected just after midnight from I-
69 north, with lighter amounts and shorter duration to the south -
may see only a few snowflakes near the Ohio border.

The warmer airmass poised to the west floods into Southern Lower
Michigan early Monday, with 850-mb temps jumping from around -10C to
near 0C. Surface temps will respond accordingly, climbing above
freezing. The higher ambient moisture in the near surface layer
sitting on the cold surface will result in plenty of low clouds and
light fog starting Monday afternoon and likely continuing into
midweek. Additionally, another quick moving wave in the westerlies
will act on this moist layer on Tuesday - offering a chance at some
light rain and drizzle.

The warmer conditions will continue through the balance of the
workweek - with highs eventually making it into the 40s. A rather
strong system will affect the Great Lakes region in the Friday
vicinity. Southeast Michigan will initially be on the warm side -
but a transition to colder weather looks to be following the system
to round out next weekend.

MARINE...

Diffuse pressure pattern over the next several days affords a quiet
stretch of marine weather. A series of weak clipper systems brings
waves of light to moderate snow this afternoon-evening and again
Sunday night into Monday morning. Weak nature of these waves however
ensures a muted response to the wind and wave fields, with the most
notable trend being a shift from northwest to southwest flow Sunday
evening. Warming temperatures into the work week transition
additional precipitation chances from snow to either all rain or a
rain-snow mix mid-late week.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...Mann
MARINE.......MV

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.