911
FXUS63 KDTX 052300
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
700 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures with lower humidity with exist through early
  next week.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cold front has cleared much of the Southeast Michigan airspace.
Incoming high pressure is driving northeast flow with a substantial
amount of drying occuring in the surface layer.  Winds near the
surface will take some time this evening to calm out - thus duration
of fog formation window will be somewhat limited.  So, aside from
some ground fog formation - not anticipating impactful reductions in
visibility.  Diurnal cumulus will quickly develop Sunday - however
coverage is expected to remain scattered in nature.

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

DISCUSSION...

Broad area of surface high pressure continues to build south from
Ontario late this afternoon and will maintain influence throughout
the remainder of the weekend. Lingering axis of higher low level
moisture quality still extends from near Grand Rapids southeast into
the I-94 to Ohio border corridor late this afternoon. There remains
potential for a few isolated showers to emerge yet through peak
heating along this gradient through early evening. Otherwise, deep
layer stability and subsidence will dominate through this period.
Lingering late day diurnal cu will fade into the evening with the
loss of daytime heating and steady influx of drier air. Low
temperatures overnight will range from the mid-50s across northern
and rural areas to the lower 60s closer to the Detroit metro area.
High pressure anchors directly over the central Great Lakes on
Sunday. Mostly sunny skies during the day will yield seasonable
highs in the upper 70s with dew points remaining comfortably in the
50s.

Low-to-mid level ridging over the central Plains will drift eastward
directly over the Great Lakes early in the week. Broad subsidence
and a very dry atmospheric column will maintain abundant sunshine
and pleasant conditions across southeast Michigan on Monday. High
temperatures will remain at near seasonal norms in the upper 70s
with dew points remaining capped in the upper 50s to lower 60s. By
Tuesday, the high pressure center shifts east toward the Atlantic
seaboard, allowing low-level flow to veer around to the south-
southwest. Warm air advection across the Ohio Valley will lift
daytime highs back into the lower 80s. The daytime hours on Tuesday
are expected to remain mostly dry under warm return flow, though
high clouds will gradually thicken from west to east by late
afternoon.

A strong Pacific upper-level disturbance will traverse southern
Canada, flattening the Great Lakes ridge and driving a surface low
across Ontario. An accompanying cold front will sweep south through
lower Michigan Wednesday. Moisture return ahead of the boundary will
push dew points back up, supporting the next round of scattered
showers and rumbles of thunder starting late Tuesday night and
peaking on Wednesday. Temperatures will spike into the mid-to-upper
80s Wednesday ahead of the frontal passage before cooler, drier air
returns for the second half of the week.

MARINE...

Favorable marine conditions are forecast through the weekend as high
pressure builds south from central Ontario, eventually settling over
Lake Huron. This should promote stable and mainly dry conditions
into early next week as more tranquil conditions take root. The next
chance for increasing winds and waves arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday ahead of a low pressure system. The stronger Gulf-
modified southwesterly flow and the low`s associated warm/cold
fronts should lead to rising thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....Mann
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.