651
FXUS63 KDMX 292345
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
545 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures tonight into Saturday with wind chills in
  the -10 to -20 range Friday and Saturday mornings

- Breezy on Friday, with a few flurries possible north

- Accumulating snow chances return late Saturday into Sunday.
  Greatest chances (50 to 70%) and highest accumulations (1 to
  2 inches) over northern and western Iowa

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Weak high pressure dominates the weather today with light winds and
thin cloud cover. Light snow grazed the southern portions of the
state this morning, leading to brief visibility reductions in
southwest Iowa. However, this snowfall has since dissipated with
the mid-level clouds, allowing sun to shine through.

A rather jagged looking trough/wave will drop southward into Iowa
tonight into Friday, bringing arctic air down into the area. Surface
height rises and cold air advection with this air mass will bring
breezy winds during the day on Friday, as well as steepening lapse
rates. Low-level moisture will be lacking, but soundings do indicate
supersaturation with respect to ice at the top of the mixed layer,
coincident with a shallow layer of weak instability, suggesting we
could see some light snow showers. That said, despite the signal in
the soundings, QPF/reflectivity output really isn`t suggesting
much, likely due to the dry sub-cloud layer. Therefore,
accumulations don`t appear likely due to this dry air, but local
burst of flurries certainly can`t be ruled. Travel impacts are
not anticipated.

Of higher confidence and more widely observed, light to breezy winds
and falling temperatures will lead to frigid wind chills both Friday
morning and Saturday morning. Values are below cold weather advisory
criteria, but bordering on the edge in the teens below zero south to
near 20 below zero north. Wind chills remain cold during the day on
Friday as well, as the warmest values only get into the single
digits below zero for most. Fortunately, the really cold
temperatures won`t be long-lived as we see return flow increasing
Saturday night into Sunday and temperatures back near normal by
Sunday.

The return flow on Sunday will be evident of another weak wave
rotating through the northern US. The increasing theta-e advection
and weak synoptic feature will provide both lift and moisture
through the state, bringing our next chances for accumulating
snowfall. The lift associated with this wave isn`t jumping off the
page, but a fairly steady -3 to -5 microbars will be present in
proximity to the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). With the relatively
warm profile, snow won`t be efficient but should be enough to get at
least an inch or two of accumulation over northern and western Iowa
where deeper saturation occurs the longest. Farther south and east
into central and southeastern Iowa, light snow may still fall,
but accumulations will likely be hindered by drier sub-cloud air
moving in mid-day Sunday. NBM probabilities support this, with
chances for an inch or more of snowfall in the 50 to 70% range
over northern and western Iowa, then toward 30 to 50% in
central and south central Iowa, and falling below 30% in
southeastern Iowa. Of note, GFS soundings near Mason
City/northern Iowa also indicate a loss of ice introduction
above the low level saturated layer for a few hours Sunday
afternoon. This would suggest either freezing drizzle or a mix
of freezing drizzle and snow, assuming saturation holds through
the surface layer. Icing potential and expected impacts for
Sunday will be better assessed as we get higher-resolution
guidance in through the coming days, but something to keep in
the back of your mind if traveling Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Monitoring MVFR stratus coming in from the northeast tonight
which will affect at least the northern sites after 12z. Less
confident in stratus remaining BKN or OVC for KDSM or KOTM so
left SCT. Gusts over 20kts will be common after 18z, especially
south.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Jimenez