787
FXUS63 KDMX 152050
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
250 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fair, mild weather for the rest of Sunday. Highs in the low to
  mid 60s.

- Clouds increasing Monday and Tuesday, but with temperatures
  still well above average. Highs in the southwest Iowa could
  reach 70 degrees Tuesday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night, mainly
  north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mostly sunny skies and light winds made for a pleasant Sunday across
the state. Satellite imagery shows an area of stratus/fog in north-
central Kansas. This represents where our moisture plume is, and it
will be advected in on the LLJ tonight. The surface warm front will
bring in a blanket of stratus and accompanying fog, stalling
somewhere across the central or north Monday into Tuesday. Both fog
and clouds could be a feature throughout the day. In the warm
sector, the LLJ wind max continues through the day in Missouri,
primed for an additional push of moisture and stratus in the
evening and overnight. The most noticeable change is to the
high temperatures, especially in the north with the warm front.
Similar adjustments may be needed on Tuesday depending on where
the warm front lies then.

Eventually, the warm front will be picked up by a surface low
associated with a negatively-tilted shortwave trough ejecting from
the northern Rockies. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient
increases, leading to gusty winds, especially across the south. Dew
points in the NBM are likely running too high in the south Tuesday,
where some clearing may allow for better mixing and decreasing dew
points. This is when and where the chances for elevated fire weather
conditions are greatest. The EML will reach into Iowa, steepening
midlevel lapse rates. A trend this forecast issuance was a delay in
the occlusion mentioned yesterday, leading to an uptick in
precipitation for portions of central Iowa. Thunderstorms will be
possible given the midlevel lapse rates ranging from 7 to 8 C/km.
Depending on available boundary layer moisture, there could be more
CAPE available, increasing the chance of thunderstorms. The SPC has
a general thunder outlook for most all of Iowa.

A pattern change arrives behind Tuesday night`s system. Broad
troughing in the western CONUS will usher in cooler air in the
Plains, dropping temperatures closer to normal for mid February. Lee-
side troughing is favored in this pattern, indicating an active
pattern. Precipitation will be possible to end the work week (30-40%
chance on Thursday and Friday).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 6 hours with
mostly clear skies. Winds will remain under 10kts, switching
from northwesterly, then westerly, then finally southwesterly
after sunset. Marginal LLWS overnight, lasting longest for
northern sites, but is under 40kts at this time. Will continue
to evaluate.

Main change this issuance is the introduction of MVFR/IFR cigs
in the planning period, affecting all sites at some point after
06z and impacts lingering for the remainder of the period.
Uncertainty remains in coverage and placement of the front. Have
added SCT decks to reflect arrival time. Fog will once again be
possible overnight and may likely be patchy just as it was this
morning. Periods of MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions possible, but
confidence in placement precludes adding mentions at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Forecast and Record High Temperatures for Select Central Iowa
cities on Sunday and Monday...

===========================================================
           |    Sunday     |    Monday     |    Period
           | Fcst  Record/ | Fcst  Record/ |      of
City       | High   Year   | High   Year   |    Record
===========================================================
Mason City    56   53/1981    58   63/1981    1903-Present
Waterloo      56   71/1921    61   62/1981    1895-Present
Des Moines    61   75/1921    64   66/1981    1878-Present
Ottumwa       61   63/1984    65   65/2017    1923-Present
===========================================================

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Jimenez
CLIMATE...Lee