518
FXUS63 KDMX 070354
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1054 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower will persist into the evening and gradually end from
  northwest to southeast. Isolated non-severe storms possible
  south.

- Dry with seasonal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A cold front has been very slow to move across the state the past 24
hrs as the boundary has become nearly parallel to upper
west/southwest flow. The surface boundary has no reached far
southeast Iowa. The boundary at 850 mb though is lagging and remains
on the northwest half of Iowa side to begin the afternoon. Numerous
waves of theta-e advection continue to lift in vicinity of that
boundary. As a result, periodic showers along with some isolated
thunderstorms have been moving across a large portion of central
Iowa. All of these features will begin to accelerate to the
southeast later today and tonight as a 500 mb short wave trough
approaches from the west/northwest and moves through overnight.

High pressure will arrive on Tuesday and bring clearing skies along
with warmer than today temperatures, but still near to slightly
below normal temperatures with high temperatures generally in the
60s. The high pressure ridge will move slowly east the next several
days with return flow arriving on the backside of the system,
especially towards the end of the week. Expect high temperatures to
be similar with highs in the 60s and low 70s through Thursday.
Overnight lows may dip into the upper 30s Tuesday through Thursday
mornings over parts of northern Iowa where better radiational
conditions develop. A short wave moves through Thursday night and
could bring a few showers or isolated thunderstorms. Another high
pressure system follows this system with even stronger warm
advection for next weekend and perhaps a few areas with have highs
in the 80s once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

IFR conditions are common over southern Iowa including at OTM
where showers will continue off and on overnight. There remains
the chance for a thunderstorm and have continued PROB30 at this
site after 6z. At DSM after 6z, showers are rather spotty with
confidence too low to include more than PROB30. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions prevail and will expand to all sites by around
daybreak Tuesday. Winds from a northerly direction will prevail
under 12 knots with occasional gusts to around 15 knots possible
during the afternoon. VFR cumulus clouds move over northern
Iowa in the afternoon and have continued mention at MCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Ansorge