685
FXUS63 KDMX 051919
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later this
  afternoon into Friday with an additional round Saturday into
  Sunday. The severe potential through this period is low.

- Temperatures steadily in the mid to upper 70s through the end
  of the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Leading precipitation from the approaching wave is just
reaching far western Iowa on radar this afternoon. So far this
is not yet reaching the ground, with model soundings showing
quite a bit of dry air to overcome and surface observations with
15-20 degree dewpoint depressions. With weak forcing and dry
air to overcome, precipitation will be fairly spotty and light
and this trend is reflected in CAM guidance. This regime will
continue through Friday with diurnal heating helping with some
spotty redevelopment in the afternoon. These will be widely
scattered and many locations will remain dry. Northern Iowa will
see the higher chances for activity with a modest increase in
forcing thanks to a weak embedded wave to the north. A secondary
weak embedded shortwave will pass across the area overnight
Friday into Saturday with continued chances for scattered
showers. Instability is very limited into the area with the gulf
cut off from the area so thunder chances area low, but a few
rumbles can`t be ruled out.

And finally by late Saturday into Sunday a more robust shortwave
will will dig across the northern plains and into the midwest. The
best forcing will move north of the area across Minnesota with a
trailing front that will pass across Iowa on Sunday morning. This
will bring the last chance for scattered showers to mainly northern
Iowa this weekend. The shortwave will also enhance the pressure
gradient across the area on Sunday with northwest winds
becoming breezy and gusting 20-30+ mph at times through the
afternoon. As the shortwave evolves into Monday model solutions
diverge, with the GFS favoring more wrap around precipitation
into northern Iowa with the Euro pulled further north.

The upcoming week starts off dry with temperatures gradually warming
thorugh the mid to upper 70s and into the low 80s by the middle of
the week. The next window for precipitation looks to arrive
with a late week system which will be better refined in the
days to come.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the period. This afternoon
scattered showers will move into the area. Initial impacts are
possible near KDSM/KOTM, then shifting north near KMCW
overnight. With the widely scattered nature of the showers,
have leaned on prob30 groups at the most likely times/locations,
however widely scattered showers are possible through most of
the period and over much of the state. Amendments are likely to
reflect near term trends.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff