573
FXUS63 KDMX 251123
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
523 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold tonight through Monday morning with wind chills of -15
  to -30. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from midnight to
  9 am Monday.

- Highs in the teens and 20s through the upcoming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 207 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The primary weather concern upcoming is another bout of bitter
cold tonight through Monday morning. This evening a lobe of
vorticity will pinwheel around the parent trough and move across
Iowa. This will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air into the
area. This weak low with also serve to enhance the pressure
gradient across the area, allowing winds to stay up through the
overnight period. While not strong, winds of 10+ mph will
persist overnight and impact wind chills. The wind chill will
bottom out Monday morning around -25 to - 30 north and -15 to
-20 central and south. As such, a Cold Weather Advisory has been
issued for midnight to 9 am on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Afternoon analysis of features shows a large area of high pressure
centered over eastern Iowa through the Great Lakes, which has led to
the continued dry weather across at least the northern half of Iowa
today. However, the southern half of Iowa received light snowfall
throughout much of the morning, which is in relation to the large
winter storm that is ongoing across the southern CONUS today. Snow
reports have been quite sparse so far, but did overperform
expectations of how far north this snow would reach north into Iowa
today, as light snow was being reported as far north as Boone and
Ames around sunrise this morning. Snowfall totals were about a tenth
of an inch at the Des Moines International Airport at noon, with a
couple 1 inch reports over far southern Iowa at mid-morning. Since
then, conditions have become dry north of I-80 over central Iowa by
late morning, with light snow lingering mainly across far southern
tiers of counties as of 2pm. Given the very dry and cold airmass,
the snowflakes have been very small in size, so various ASOS/AWOS
sites have been reporting this snow as haze over the last several
hours in these areas. Since models did not handle the extent of snow
north this morning, and continue to struggle to have a good
handle on expected conditions for the rest of the day, have been
relying on current radar trends and comparing to model guidance
that closest represent current conditions. Given this approach,
the expectation is that the very light snow will generally
remain over far southern Iowa for the rest of the afternoon as
is currently being experienced, but will then be followed by an
area of higher radar returns indicating light snow over eastern
Kansas into northern Missouri lifting up into southern to south-
central Iowa into the early evening and remaining generally into
early Sunday, bringing additional snow into these areas. The
NAM/GFS seem to reflect these trends, with forecast soundings at
KLWD and KOTM showing better saturation though still relatively
weak lift through the deep isothermal layer. Further north at
Des Moines, the larger presence of dry air at this point should
keep any additional snow from occurring, so have left lower PoP
mentions in these areas. Additional snow accumulations through
the rest of today into early Sunday around an inch or less is
expected, with the higher values expected near the IA/MO border.
Outside of all the snow discussion, temperatures have warmed
above zero degrees across the majority of the state into the
single digits, though still below zero in the northeast where
the deeper snowpack remains. Only expecting temperatures to
improve another 3-5 degrees or across Iowa this afternoon,
before falling tonight around 0 to -10 degrees, coldest north,
along with wind chills slightly colder in the
-10 to -20 degree range.

The area of high pressure will continue to glide away from the
region into Sunday morning, along with the southern winter storm
eastward, with drying conditions returning across Iowa. Winds will
remain light and variable until late morning, then will gradually
shift north/northwesterly into the late morning through the
afternoon over the state. Another area of surface high pressure will
sink down from southern Canada and through the western portion of
the Central Plains Sunday afternoon to evening, with dry air keeping
conditions dry for the rest of the day. Despite the northerly flow,
temperatures will actually be the warmest we have seen over the past
few days, thanks to decreasing clouds, as highs are expected to
reach into the upper single digits north and in the teens south.
Despite the slight warming, another shot of cold air will arrive
into the Upper Midwest Sunday evening into Monday morning as a
stronger lobe of energy attached to a larger trough, centered over
Ontario, passes across the Midwest, sending temperatures back down
below zero for the majority of Iowa. Overnight lows will range in
the -10 to -15 range in northern Iowa and in the -5 to -10 degrees
south, along with breezy northwest winds leading to wind chill
values dropping in the -20 to -30 range north and -10 to -20 range
south. Will likely result in the issuance in a cold weather headline
at least over northern Iowa given these expected wind chills, which
will be determined later this weekend.

Following the frigid conditions to start the work week, temperatures
are expected to improve for the day as winds shift southwesterly,
with highs in the low to mid teens northeast and in the upper teens
to low 20s southwest. Dry conditions look to remain through Tuesday
as a ridge gradually builds across the western CONUS, resulting in
mid-level northwest flow into Iowa. This larger scale pattern change
will lead to the continued push of warmer air into the region at
least through Tuesday, with highs expected in the teens northeast
and in the 20s southwest. There is a signal some some clipper action
later Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave drops southeast across
Upper Midwest, though conditions look dry enough over Iowa to limit
any impacts over the area at this time. By Wednesday, there is an
indication per longer range guidance for another quick passing
boundary into the afternoon within the larger scale northwest flow,
paired with a more notable push of Pacific moisture to bring some
low chances for snow showers Wednesday. This would be accompanied by
falling temperatures through the afternoon to evening, with the
coldest temperatures into Thursday morning, with lows expected
around 0 to -10 degrees northeast and 0 to 5 degrees above zero
southwest. Surface high pressure over the area into Thursday looks
to quickly depart through the morning, with guidance continuing the
trend additional waves in the larger scale flow bringing additional
but low chances for precipitation into Iowa through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conditions are in place and will prevail much of the time.
An area of stratus currently across South Dakota and Minnesota
will slowly move into Iowa later this afternoon and evening.
There remains uncertainty as to how this will evolve with
guidance split as to weather the stratus deck will hold
together or dissipate. Have hedged towards stratus persisting
with MVFR impacts possible at KFOD/KMCW later in the period
around and after 00z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday
for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hagenhoff
DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Hagenhoff