159
FXUS63 KDMX 050400
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1100 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon
  into Friday with an additional round Saturday into Sunday. The
  severe potential through this period is low.

- Temperatures steadily in the mid to upper 70s through the end
  of the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Weak high pressure has gradually built across northern Iowa today,
pushing the low that brought widespread rain to the area yesterday
further to the east. Associated cloud cover from this system still
continues to cover parts of far southeast Iowa while the rest of the
area has seen passing high clouds through the day. A plume of smoke
depicted in RAP/HRRR smoke models has passed across far eastern to
southeast Iowa as well, with some of that smoke mixing out to the
surface. In fact, Ottumwa has reported minor visibility
reductions to 4 miles with the haze. This is expected to
continue to diminish overnight and on Thursday morning. The Iowa
DNR Air Quality Alert remains in effect thorugh 6 am Thursday.

By Thursday afternoon the upper level trough across the area will
kick out an associated surface low from the Rockies and into the
midwest. Gulf flow remains cut off from the area, limiting better
instability across Iowa and the wave itself is only weakly forced.
Tangibly, this means that scattered showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and into Friday,
however any severe weather threat is quite low. Both GFS and Euro
indicate some scattered shower activity lingering into Saturday. By
later Saturday afternoon/evening (timing still to be determined) a
more robust shortwave will dig across the northern plains and
upper midwest. This will shove the lingering wave to the east
and bring another window for showers and thunderstorms to the
area overnight and into Sunday. With the Gulf still shut off
instability remains quite modest, but forcing is a bit better,
albeit largely focused north of the area across Minnesota. As
things currently stand, this looks like another window for
showers and non severe thunderstorms over the area.

Throughout the end of the week and weekend temperatures will remain
steadily in the mid to upper 70s.  Models due indicate at least weak
warm air advection into the area by the middle of next week which
may return the area to the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period, with light variable
winds this morning becoming more east to southeasterly after
sunrise. Scattered mid to upper level clouds will stream over
southern Iowa through the morning before more clouds increase from
west to east through the day. Occasional smoke is being observed at
KOTM still early this morning, so have kept 6SM through the morning
to account for this. There is also a weak signal for some fog
development at KOTM in the morning, although confidence for this is
low. Therefore, have included 6SM BR for hours where fog is
possible, but kept conditions VFR for now.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Dodson