009
FXUS63 KDMX 021137
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
537 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow chances up to 20% over the northern half of Iowa,
  mainly tonight. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow
  accumulation possible.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures near to below
  normal early in the week, then above normal by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The overall weather pattern will continue to feature northwesterly
flow, which will bring several clippers through the region. These
will largely be moisture limited so no significant precipitation is
expected through next weekend. While temperatures will be well above
where they were early in the weekend, they will be on the cooler
side of normal today and tomorrow before rising to above normal by
Thursday and then staying near to perhaps a bit above normal through
next weekend. Let`s discuss more of the details.

Clouds cover the state this morning per GOES-East Nighttime
Microphysics RGB imagery. These clouds will be stubborn today,
though some breaks will be possible over eastern Iowa. However,
upper level water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough/clipper
descending the Rockies over Montana this morning, which will race
towards Iowa and bring increasing clouds by this afternoon. Models
generally agree on some level of light QPF/light snow moving into
portions of northern Iowa with varied timing of arrival generally
after sunset this evening. The 0z NAM remains the more aggressive
model in terms of forcing and QPF with cross sections showing strong
lift in the not fully saturated dendritic growth zone, though the 6z
NAM is more muted in this signal. Given the signal in multiple model
camps, have expanded the PoP area over northern Iowa, which will
drift southward overnight and dissipate as lift weakens. Any snow
accumulation will be a dusting to maybe a few tenths of an inch.

Surface high pressure will push south over Iowa on Tuesday bringing
a cooler day with highs around 20 degrees over northeastern Iowa to
the low 30s over southwestern Iowa. As the high moves away,
additional weak shortwave energy will pass overhead into Wednesday.
While there is low level saturation per cross sections, there is
little if any lift so the forecast remains dry. Conditions will be
turning milder on Wednesday and more so Thursday when highs in the
40s are likely over the western half of the state. Late in the week,
low pressure will dive out of central Canada into the eastern Great
Lakes with a surface front pushing through Iowa on Friday. The trend
continues to focus this low farther away from Iowa with
precipitation chances now relegated to Wisconsin. Breezier winds
still look on track for Friday. Beyond the cold front, cooler
conditions are expected Friday and Saturday, but the mid-level
pattern in the ensemble data points to ridging trying to build into
the region late in the weekend or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR ceilings are widespread, though there is a clear slot
poking into north central Iowa at the start of the period. This
should not last long as there is an additional area of MVFR
ceilings that will fill back in shortly. Confidence in how long
the MVFR ceilings will last is medium given the spread in
guidance. Have generally kept restrictions toward the longer
side given climatology, but all sites should reach VFR at some
point in the daylight hours today. Thereafter, clouds will
return along with restrictions at some terminals over western
Iowa tonight. Light snow may occur as well, but confidence in
any impacts is too low to include any mention.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge