830
FXUS63 KDMX 031652
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1152 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm and windy conditions this weekend leading to
  elevated fire weather concerns, especially Saturday.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms Sunday
  afternoon/evening through early next week.

- A return to more seasonal conditions next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Quiet conditions remain across Iowa early this morning, with
relatively warm nighttime temperatures through the 60s, thanks to
low-level southerly flow into the state. On the synoptic scale, the
western fringe of the mid-level ridge is slowly moving over the
Midwest with surface high pressure extending to the East Coast,
and a defined mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest and a
rather elongated area of surface low pressure into the Dakotas.
The aforementioned ridge will continue to primarily drive the
forecast today and into the weekend as it slowly translates
eastward, which will result in the continuation of dry and above
normal temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. Increasing 850mb
southwesterly flow with a tightening surface pressure gradient
over the region is expected to extend into western Iowa today,
which will result in breezy conditions, and even more so
Saturday over much of the state. With mostly sunny and warming
conditions today and Saturday, mixing these winds to the surface
look more likely. A further look into model soundings for
Saturday indicates 35-40 knots around 850mb, with mixing values
roughly around 30-35+ knots across northern and western Iowa and
closer to 20-25+ knots further east and south, so kept the
trend on increasing winds towards these values into the
forecast. The increased mixing Saturday will aid to dry
conditions further as well, with guidance leaning towards
slightly lower dewpoints largely in the low to mid 50s Saturday,
which is reasonable, so adjusted lower in coordination with
neighboring offices. With the combination of dry, windy and warm
conditions Saturday, fire weather concerns are quite elevated,
particularity for cropland as it is fully cured and the harvest
continues. Extra caution will be needed in the fields, as any
fire starts can spread quickly in these conditions and pose a
safety risk. Keeping equipment cleaned up and taking breaks to
avoid overheating machinery in these conditions will help limit
fire starts. Outside of the crops, grasses are slowly curing,
with the driest fuels over western Iowa that could also burn
with fire spreading also possible. Burning of any kind should be
avoided until conditions improve.

Another breezy day is expected Sunday, as a deepening area of
surface low pressure within the larger trough over the western CONUS
lifts into the Upper Midwest, which will drape a boundary into Iowa
along with some return in moisture by Sunday afternoon to evening
that will result in an end to dry conditions with showers and storms
expected (50-65% chance). This boundary will generally remain over
Iowa at least into early next week, with additional showers and
storms possible at times. Please see the previous discussion
for more details on this.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds over
western Iowa will turn a bit breezy this afternoon from the
south averaging between 10 and 15 knots. Winds will not fully
drop off this evening with winds increasing after midnight into
the day Saturday. Winds from the south or south-southwest will
be between 15 and 20 knots with gusts 25 to 35 knots by the end
of the period with the strongest winds/gusts over western and
northern Iowa. The peak of the wind speeds and gusts will be
after 18z. Lastly overnight, have not included a period of
borderline low level wind shear as it barely reaches 30 knots,
but will pass along for future issuances to monitor.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Ansorge