155
FXUS63 KDMX 140427
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1027 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential of patchy dense fog tonight.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures through at least
Saturday.

-Next system arrives early next week bringing rain and potentially
some snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The forecast continues to remain seasonably warm and quiet today as
temperatures have risen to the lower 60s across much of the state
this afternoon. Current temp observations look to be outperforming
the raw NBM thus had to mix in NBM 75th and 90th percentiles in
order to reflect this warmer trend. Meanwhile aloft, Iowa continues
to remain under the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge which
is moving at practically a snail`s pace eastward. Embedded within
this ridge at the h700 level, a region of lower pressure will
progress across the state of Iowa later this evening. The passage of
this mid-level wave will help influence some southerly moisture to
creep up into the central plains overnight. This added moisture
could potentially develop a few areas of patchy fog overnight into
the pre-dawn hours of Friday. Wind speeds this afternoon are
expected to decrease after sunset. Lows tonight should reach down
into the upper 30s mainly north of the I-80 corridor and mid-40s
across southern Iowa.

Tomorrow will be a similar forecast to today. Highs will reach the
upper 60s for most areas and perhaps a run at 70 across southern
Iowa again but given the performance of the NBM today, blending in
higher percentiles could be needed for tomorrow afternoon`s highs.
One caveat will be if the presence of morning cloud cover will
inhibit the warmest temperatures solutions from being met. Winds
will remain out of the south around 10 mph with gusts below 20mph.
As we head into the weekend, a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest. Conditions are expected to remain dry although winds
could be breezy between 20-25mph Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Saturday and then cooling
into the 50s Sunday.

Our eyes remains focused on the system early next week. Low pressure
off the California coastline will track across the PacSouthwest late
this weekend then enter the central CONUS by Monday as a 995mb
surface low. Current forecast tracks remain in fair agreement about
its center tracking somewhere across northern MO into southern IA by
late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Latest NBM QPF looks to keep
amounts on the lower end however, there is still time to solidify p-
types. A few ensemble members do hint at the potential of some light
snowfall accumulations. Temperatures for the remainder of the period
will range in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
There remains a low chance for patchy fog Friday morning, though
areal coverage is expected to remain limited. Trends are down
further from the 00z issuance and have again opted to keep from
TAFs.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Hagenhoff