062
FXUS63 KDMX 040336
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1036 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue into the evening. A few
  strong to severe storms are possible, mainly in southeast
  Iowa.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms have spread across the state
through this morning. The cold front has cut southwest to northeast
across the state and convection on this axis will be the area to
watch for any stronger storm development the rest of today. While
soundings are fairly saturated with lapse rates limiting better
development, a pocket of 75-100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE in central to
eastern Iowa is providing low level stretching potential along
the boundary. With even marginally better instability this would
be a concern for quick spin ups along the segment there,
however so far the environment has been just stable enough to
prevent further development. In the last hour or so the line
has become less organized, but will be monitored closely through
the afternoon as it moves east. Some recovery is anticipated in
parts of southeast Iowa and into Missouri and Illinois within
CAM guidance ahead of locations that have seen convection
through the day today and where satellite indicates small
pockets of clearing. While small hail and gusty winds are
possible, the previously mentioned saturated profiles should
limit more robust convection in area. Rain amounts have been
generally as expected so far today with a widespread ~1"
expected with pockets of 2+" possible. The bulk of the
convection should push east of the area by around 6-7 pm as the
front slides east.

While rain has helped to clear out much of the upper level smoke
seen over the last several days, pockets of decreased air quality
exist in Iowa and the Iowa DNR has issued an Air Quality Alert
through Thursday morning. Behind the front temperatures are falling.
At noon temperatures in northwest Iowa were in the low 50s
while southwest Iowa ahead of the front was still in the low
70s. Temperatures through the rest of the week and into the
weekend will remain more mild in the mid 70s.

By late week an open wave will reach the midwest and bring the next
window for showers and thunderstorms to Iowa. Timing
differences exist with the GFS bringing precipitation by
Thursday with the EC delayed until Friday. Right now forcing is
not well defined into Iowa within the system and organized
convection for stronger storms is not anticipated. The wave
should lift out of the area by this weekend but timing will be
better refined in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Conditions have improved across the majority of terminals this
morning, with remaining patchy fog and low ceilings expected
until about sunrise at KOTM. Otherwise, high clouds are expected
Wednesday with light winds gradually shifting southeast to east.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Bury