852
FXUS63 KDMX 090345
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1045 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and warm conditions are expected for the area this
  weekend, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A few light
  rain showers/sprinkles move through tonight, but no
  accumulations are expected.

- Additional light shower chances are possible south Saturday
  night into early Sunday along the Iowa/Missouri border. A few
  rumbles of thunder possible, but severe weather is unlikely.

- Warmer temperatures through next week, with the potential for
  mores showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday.
  Severe weather threat will be better determined in the coming
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Quite pleasant conditions are in place over much of central and
northern Iowa today, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s
early this afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing has allowed for
light to breezy winds and dry conditions this afternoon, especially
over northern and north central Iowa where gusts near 20 to 30 mph
are expected this afternoon. Farther south in southern Iowa,
radar and satellite imagery showed light returns within cloud
cover through mid-day. Dry sub-cloud air limited most of this
precipitation, but light rain was occasionally reported on
surface observations. Regardless, this are of light rain and
clouds has all but moved out of the area this afternoon, giving
way to clearer skies and warmer temperatures.

Our northwest flow pattern continues today as the Hudson Bay low
continues to churn. This will generally keep conditions status quo
through the weekend, with occasional light rain chances as weak
waves pass through the flow pattern. The first of these chances will
move through later today and tonight, as high resolution guidance
generates scattered light showers along a weak trough. With the very
dry low level air, it seems unlikely much, if any, of this will
reach the ground, but have maintained a 10 to 15% chance of rain as
it passes through.

A second wave moving through the plains to our west will bring some
better moisture advection northward ahead of a surface
boundary, resulting in light rain chances over southern Iowa
Saturday night into early Sunday. This precipitation will still
need to fight through the dry layer below, but will have
slightly better moisture depth aloft to help saturate down
through the layer. Likewise, some weak instability will develop
right along the Iowa/Missouri border, helping to provide lift
needed for hydrometeor production. Much of this activity seems
to stay along and south of the Iowa/Missouri border, so have
kept a 20 to 25% chance for rain focused in those areas. Some
high resolution guidance also has light rain as far north as the
Interstate 80 corridor, but moisture availability decreases
farther north and chances of saturating through the layer are
lower. With 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE present along and south
of the border, a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but the
severe weather threat is low.

Outside of the aforementioned light rain chances, most of the area
will experience warm and dry conditions through the weekend.
Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and 70s, with a few
locations pushing 80 in southern Iowa on Saturday before the front
arrives. Saturday will be a bit breezy as northerly winds bring cold
air advection and sinking air into Iowa. Lighter winds and partly
sunny skies develop on Sunday as surface high pressure moves in,
making for a pleasant Mother`s Day in Iowa.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The Hudson Bay low breaks up and departs east into the overall flow
through the beginning of next week, releasing the western CONUS
ridging eastward into the midwest. This will boost temperatures into
the 70s and 80s through the first part of the work week, while also
opening the state up to a better gulf moisture stream. Another wave
will pass through the upper mississippi valley region late
Monday into Tuesday, meeting with this moisture stream and
bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back to the area. The
progression of the system has slowed down a bit more into
Tuesday, which could open up the potential for better
instability as the front passes Tuesday afternoon. However,
current deterministic guidance still keeps most of the QPF tied
to the main wave north and east of the state, with little
occurring over Iowa where the better instability resides. A
deeper dive into model soundings shows a warm nose that is
likely inhibiting parcels being lifted into the unstable layer.
Therefore, capping, magnitude of instability, and frontal
passage timing will all be something to watch as more guidance
comes in through the weekend, especially with the healthy LLJ
and wind fields associated with this system. GEFS AI/ML guidance
isn`t sold on severe weather potential on Tuesday, likely due
to the questionable instability within guidance pulling
probabilities down. Regardless, the takeaway is that shower and
thunderstorm potential returns to begin next week, with a
potential for at least a few stronger storms, depending on the
mentioned factors. The stronger winds ahead and behind the
system will also lead to breezy conditions on Tuesday as the
front passes. Temperatures moderate some into Wednesday behind
the front, but warm considerably through the second half of the
week as thermal ridging builds back eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the end of this
TAF period. Skies will continue to clear over the next few hours
for terminal sites. Clouds will then begin to move in from the
north around 14z lowering ceiling heights between 10,000 and
8,000Ft. A few showers could pass over OTM and FOD during this
time but due to dry air, it  will limit rain reaching the
ground. Winds at all terminal sites will begin to increase late
morning and early afternoon to 12-17kts with gusts reaching
20-25 kts for all terminals. As we near the end of this TAF
period, ceilings are expected to improve with winds decreasing.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Ansorge/TDR