188
FXUS63 KDMX 112022
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
222 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-30% chance of light rain or snow mix tonight into the first
  few hours of daylight Thursday. Little if any snow
  accumulation, but isolated slick spots could result with
  freezing on surfaces.

- Above normal temperatures persist into next week.

- Minimal precipitation chances late this week into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Early afternoon upper level analysis shows a low amplitude ridge
upstream of Iowa with a strong shortwave off of Baja California.
There is a plume of Pacific moisture being streamed out of this
trough into the central US with this best reflected as high clouds
that are seen in the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery from
GOES-East. At the surface, the center of high pressure is just
southwest of Iowa and will pass over northern Missouri this
afternoon. As Iowa gets into the southerly flow, low level theta-e
advection will begin while at the same time a northern stream
shortwave trough drops into the state tonight into Thursday. Cross
sections and forecast soundings show saturation slowly working its
way down from the top of the atmosphere, but the dry low levels
remain fairly stout. The question becomes whether the low level
forcing paired with departing kinematics will be enough to
precipitate through the dry low levels. QPF fields continue to show
a streak or area of QPF in the NAM, GFS, and RAP, but many other
models are zero. If it does precipitate, the next question is the
type. Soundings show the low level warm layer, which is warmer in
the data today compared to yesterday at this time, that would allow
for melting of hydrometeors. However, the dry subcloud layer results
in large dewpoint depressions and opens the door for wetbulbing
effects if the precipitation rate is high enough. As has been done
in previous forecasts, will continue with rain/snow mix for weather
type with any snow accumulation little if any. The only thing that
raises concern for more impact is surface and subsurface conditions.
Road temperatures, not surprisingly, are well into 50s and 60s this
afternoon, but these should cool down toward freezing later tonight.
4 inch soil temperatures are near or just below freezing as well.
The light precipitation falling on near freezing surface could
result in slick spots, especially on elevated surfaces such as
bridges. This is all dependent on precipitation falling and
temperatures of surfaces being supportive of freezing on contact -
not a slam dunk forecast by any means. All of the precipitation
activity moves out a few hours after sunrise Thursday.

The upstream low amplitude ridge will push over Iowa to end the week
and with more westerly flow into next week will result in
temperatures well above normal for mid-February. At the same time
late this week, the shortwave off of Baja will push over northern
Mexico and then into the southern states this weekend. Ensemble
means continue to spread light QPF over southern Iowa with the
latest NAM and ECMWF also reaching Iowa with QPF, but with other
global deterministic and AI models keeping the QPF south of the
state. Fortunately if precipitation were to reach the state this
weekend, it would be in the form of light rain. The next chance of
precipitation will come toward the middle of next week as a lead
shortwave trough ejects ahead of a more amplified trough over the
West.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A few filaments of high clouds will fly overhead this afternoon
before more widespread clouds spread and lower over the state
tonight. There does exist a low chance (20%) of light
precipitation, mainly rain, after midnight tonight into the
first few hours of daylight Thursday at FOD, DSM, and ALO;
however, this chance is too low to include in the official
forecast. Conditions therefore will remain in VFR through the
period as light winds from a westerly direction this afternoon
become from a southerly direction by daybreak Thursday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ansorge
AVIATION...Ansorge