821
FXUS63 KDMX 031136
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
536 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy and cool again today. Perhaps a few flurries
  this morning.

- Monitoring a system passing across Minnesota on Sunday. A
  slight south shift or more moisture into northern Iowa could
  lead to a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle.

- Warmer and mostly dry for early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Ridge of high pressure extends through much of Minnesota and into
northeast Iowa early this morning. Any precipitation associated with
the passing upper short wave and the incoming theta-e advection has
been mostly relegated to far southwest Iowa. Models have overdone
the low level moisture by underdoing the dry air associated with the
high pressure ridge. The lowest cloud bases across the forecast area
at 3 am is 5 kft. Radar returns have been eroding and there haven`t
been many reports of any precipitation reaching the ground outside
of the aforementioned snow in the southwest. Much lower cloud bases
are currently over South Dakota and Nebraska and the steering flow
for these clouds will become more westerly so expect another cloudy
day. At this point, much of the forcing will have departed by the
time these lower clouds arrive and those bases will begin to lift as
well. Temperatures will be impacted again though and have lowered
highs by several degrees.

The ridge of high pressure moves off to the east later tonight and
into Sunday leading to strong theta-e advection to lift across the
state while a area of low pressure moves east across southern
Minnesota. Additional clouds will develop in response to this theta-
e advection and a band of precipitation is expected east and
northeast of the surface low. Currently do not have any
precipitation into the forecast area but will need to monitor far
northern Iowa. A warm nose will be lifting across the state while
temperatures at the surface will likely be sub-freezing. Moisture
depth appears to be lacking while the forcing passes through. If a
bit more moisture is available then a brief period of freezing rain
may occur. A drizzle/freezing drizzle starter kit is possible after
the mid-level drying arrives with the passage of the short wave.
Again, the main uncertainty here is low level moisture depth, which
at this times appears to be 3500 ft or less which is not optimal for
drizzle. Vertical ascent from low level warm advection and
sufficient layer shear will promote condensation coalescense.
Therefore, need to monitor the potential of initial freezing rain
then the drizzle/freezing drizzle potential as each could lead to
some light icing far north. Elsewhere, the stratus may begin to
clear leading to warmer temperatures.

The warmer temperatures is the main forecast challenge for much of
next week as there will certainly be rounds of stratus at times. The
surface dew points look mostly in the 30s which could lead to some
fog at times but nothing like what occurred recently. Should sun
occur, then highs in the 50s are certainly possible. A deep long
wave trough with embedded short wave energy will move east towards
the state at the end of next week around Friday. That may lead to
the next system to impact the state and certainly will bring colder
weather and more precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

VFR cigs to start the period with the stratus lowering through
the day with MVFR expected at all sites. Still some uncertainty
how long the MVFR stratus will persist. While some variability
in conditions is possible, these conditions likely will continue
for much of the period. Light wind throughout the day then
becoming more east/southeast late.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon