352
FXUS63 KDMX 131716
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1116 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (20-40%) for light rain across southern Iowa
  Saturday.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to low 60s through the weekend.
  Warming to the mid 60s for parts of central to southern Iowa
  early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Main short term updates were to temperatures with efficient
cooling ongoing early this morning, especially in favored areas
of west central Iowa. Dropped low temperatures to account for
this radiational cooling. Similarly, increased highs slightly
for today with another few degrees of warming in the mid levels
and upstream observations from yesterday. Continuing to monitor
for patchy fog development into daybreak, especially in the east
to northeast. A few sites in eastern Iowa have started to see
visibilities dip at times, but fog so far has been highly
localized and transient. Still not expecting any widespread fog,
but localized patchy fog remains plausible. This patchy fog
will once again be possible in mainly northern Iowa Saturday
morning where skies are clear. Saturday`s system continues to
trend south so adjustments were made to precipitation chances on
the northern end to mainly south of I-80. May still need to
trim northern extent further today with a sharp northern edge in
the precipitation shield increasingly likely. Regardless, main
impacts with this system are light rain Saturday daytime for
mainly areas near the IA/MO border. Temperatures will be held
down slightly Saturday due to cloud cover, but otherwise looking
at temperatures in the 50s to low 60s through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light precipitation has tapered off across Iowa today with skies
clearing out quickly behind. Cloud cover will continue to diminish
into this evening. Overnight clear skies and light winds should
allow for a good radiational cooling night across Iowa. Drier air is
in place across southwest Iowa with dewpoints in the low 20s while
northeast Iowa is near 30 degrees. Patchy fog development is
possible overnight in this radiational cooling setup, especially in
northeast Iowa where there is slightly better available moisture.
Model soundings indicate a very shallow saturated layer in northwest
Iowa and the HRRR/RAP have indicated patchy development in northeast
Iowa. HREF indicates a small area in northeast Iowa with around
a 40% chance for visibility around 1/2 mile. Overall do not
anticipate widespread fog development, however a few isolated
pockets are possible.

Thermal ridging across the area will keep the area quite mild Friday
through the weekend with highs in the 50s. Saturday and Saturday
night a more robust upper level cutoff low will eject out of
the southwest US and into the central US. The northern edge of
this system may skim parts of far southern Iowa, however the
primary precipitation shield will remain south of the Iowa-
Missouri border. As this southern stream system lifts east on
Sunday southerly flow will increase into the area. By Monday and
Tuesday warm air advection is maximized into the area and
temperatures are expected to warm back into the 60s.

The pattern changes by the middle of next week with a large longwave
trough setting up across the western US. Models indicate several
robust surface lows may eject east out of the parent trough. Local
impacts to Iowa will be highly dependent on the track of these
dynamic systems. At this time confidence in the track and subsequent
details is low. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Mid and upper
level cloud cover will move across the state this evening, but low
ceilings are not anticipated. Winds will remain relatively light and
variable for the next 24 hours. Some patchy fog is possible in the
eastern part of the state, but impacts are expected to remain too
low to add to the TAFs.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff/De Bruin