158
FXUS63 KDMX 022029
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
229 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow chances (up to 20%) across Iowa tonight into
  Tuesday morning. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow
  accumulation possible.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming
  into the 40s by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Cloud cover has been persistent across much of the central to
southwest portions of Iowa today, due to low stratus associated with
an incoming shortwave and high cloud streaming in from a surface low
to the southwest. The embedded shortwave has our attention as it
rotates south across the area this evening through Tuesday morning.
This currently sits across South Dakota into Minnesota where radar
notes light precipitation occurring. As the wave sinks south into
Iowa it loses strength with very modest lift and will battle dry
air. Model cross sections and soundings indicate a shallow layer of
saturation through the dendritic growth zone with a substantial
wedge of dry air below. This will limit accumulations and have kept
this to around a tenth or so across the area. With dry air in place
there are periods where the DGZ de-saturates, resulting in a
loss of ice introduction. There are scenarios where this would
result in light freezing drizzle, however with dry air in place
through the rest of the column the more likely scenario is that
precipitation would end completely rather than transition from
snow to freezing drizzle. This wave will progress to southern
Iowa by Tuesday morning, sinking south of the area by mid
morning.

High pressure keeps the area dry and cooler on Tuesday with
highs in the 20s across the area. Another weak embedded
shortwave rotates across the area on Wednesday, though at this
time precipitation looks to remain east of the area. The western
US thermal ridge then begins to shift into the central US for
the middle of the week, kicking off a warming trend with 850 mb
temperatures in the +5 to +7 C range. Temperatures this week
peak Thursday with 40s across much of the state as southwest
Iowa makes a run at 50 degrees. A cold front pushes across Iowa
Friday, sending highs back to the 30s. Temperatures begin a slow
rebound back through the 30s to 40s this weekend into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR stratus is impacting much of central and southwest Iowa
today. While this afternoon a few sites may see ceilings rise
near VFR, expect to see MVFR conditions most of the day. KMCW
has cleared the stratus deck for now with KALO expected within
the next 1-2 hours. Both will see stratus return later in the
period. Light snow or flurries are also possible this evening
and overnight, mainly at sites KFOD/KDSM, however with dry air
in place confidence in occurrence is low so have not included in
TAFs at this time.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff