546
FXUS63 KDMX 042333
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
633 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and breezy today. Scattered sprinkles/flurries.

- Few area rivers approaching minor flood stage due to rainfall
  through recent days. See hydro discussion for more details.

- Comfortable on Sunday, then cooler to start the week. Pattern
  turning active through second half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Cool and windy conditions prevail over Iowa today, as increasing
surface pressure and cold air advection drive the sensible weather
conditions. West northwesterly winds have been around 20 to 25 mph
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph common over much of the state. With the
steepened low level lapse rates, a shallow unstable layer is present
just above the surface, resulting in scattered flurries/sprinkles. A
few more prominent showers are possible in northern Iowa through
this afternoon and evening, but no impacts are anticipated. The
breezy winds will diminish some this evening, but remain light to
breezy through the night, especially in northern and northeastern
Iowa nearer to the low. Farther south and west, lighter winds will
develop overnight. Cool temperatures, light winds and clear skies
may introduce the potential for some frost development as
temperatures approach their dewpoint early Sunday morning. This will
be most likely over far southern and southwestern Iowa, while areas
farther north and east will be too breezy for frost. Temperatures
then warm under mostly clear skies on Sunday, pushing highs into the
mid to upper 50s. Winds will remain light to breezy on Sunday, but
not nearly as windy as today, making for a relatively pleasant
Easter Day.

A weak shortwave aloft will drop through the overall northwesterly
flow regime Sunday into Monday. The surface pattern responds with
subtle pressure falls, followed by a cold front and another push of
cold air advection and high pressure filling into the state on
Monday. As this occurs, weak low pressure over Colorado and the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles will advect warm, moist air up into Kansas
and Nebraska. Warm air advection aloft and weak frontogenesis
between the two airmasses will create lift over southern and
southwest Iowa Monday into Tuesday morning. Soundings and cross
sections show roughly -15 to -20 microbars of vertical ascent
through the dendritic growth zone, with a healthy amount of mid- to
upper-level saturation overhead. However, those same atmospheric
profiles also show a stout dry layer in the low- to mid- levels, as
the high pressure overhead advects drier air into the state.
Therefore, while hydrometeors will be produced aloft, expectation is
that any precipitation reaching the surface will be light. This is
especially true Monday morning, where soundings would suggest mostly
sprinkles/flurries, if anything occurs at all. Monday evening into
Tuesday morning could have slightly better low to mid-level
saturation to produce a brief period of snow overnight, but even
then, dry air remains a concern over Iowa and will be reliant on the
lift to saturate down through this dry sub-cloud layer.

As we get into Tuesday, return flow on the backside of the high will
begin to advect warmer, moist air up into the state. Depending on
the model, better deep layer saturation will be achieved by late
Tuesday afternoon/evening with broad scale lift being provided by
the increased theta-e advection. Actual moisture content still won`t
be overly high, keeping QPF rather low, but the better saturation
certainly indicates an increased potential for precipitation
later in the day Tuesday. With cooler temperatures initially,
this may begin as snow, before transitioning to rain as the
warmer air works northward. Of course, temperatures will play a
big factor in precipitation type on Tuesday, so we`ll want to
monitor temperature trends through the week as this warmer plume
moves into the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

With the state open to the gulf moisture stream, increased moisture
transport will allow for more precipitation chances through the
second half of the work week and generally into next weekend. A 500
mb trough passing over the northern CONUS will provide the synoptic
support for rain along a trailing cold front through the day
Wednesday and into Thursday. The upper level pattern transitions to
a southwest flow regime through the second half of the week and into
the weekend, as a trough digs in off the western CONUS. While the
signal for any individual system is fairly muddy at this lead time,
the overall deterministic and ensemble model consensus points toward
a wet pattern starting around Wednesday and lasting through the end
of the current 7 day forecast. In fact, NBM has over 50% PoPs
starting 18z Thursday and lasting through 00z Saturday, indicating
the overall model agreement for an active weather period. It`s
unlikely it rains non-stop through this entire period, but given the
healthy moisture stream, would not be surprising to see off and on
rain chances occurring over most of this period. Thunderstorms
are also possible through this period, but no strong signal
exists for severe thunderstorms at this time. Will assess this
threat in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions to begin the period with the stratus beginning to
clear over far northwest Iowa. A period of MVFR though is still
expected at KMCW/KALO this evening before returning back to VFR
for the remainder of the period. Breezy to gusty west/northwest
wind will settle slowly overnight however expect breezy
conditions to prevail much of the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Widespread rainfall over the last couple of days has resulted in
responses across multiple area rivers. Most of these rivers are
forecast to reach and crest within action stage, especially over
southwest into south central Iowa. However, rivers farther north and
east in the area are seeing a few sites forecast to near or exceed
minor flood stage within the next couple of days. These include
sites along the Cedar River, Iowa River, and Skunk River. The site
of most immediate concern is the Cedar River near Cedar Falls, where
minor flood stage is forecast to be reached Sunday evening and a
flood watch is now in effect. Sites along the Skunk River near Ames
are cresting now just below minor flood stage, and aren`t expected
to exceed flood stage at this time. The Iowa River near Tama is
expected to reach action stage Sunday morning and crest in minor
flood stage on Wednesday morning. Dry conditions over the next few
days should give rivers some time to route water out of the system,
but likely won`t fully recover to previous levels prior to
additional rainfall later this week. Therefore, rainfall amounts and
placement will be important to watch as we head into the second half
of next week.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dodson
LONG TERM...Dodson
AVIATION...Donavon
HYDROLOGY...Dodson