989
FXUS63 KDMX 052329
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
629 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms later this
  afternoon into Friday with an additional round Saturday into
  Sunday. The severe potential through this period is low.

- Temperatures steadily in the mid to upper 70s through the end
  of the week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Leading precipitation from the approaching wave is just
reaching far western Iowa on radar this afternoon. So far this
is not yet reaching the ground, with model soundings showing
quite a bit of dry air to overcome and surface observations with
15-20 degree dewpoint depressions. With weak forcing and dry
air to overcome, precipitation will be fairly spotty and light
and this trend is reflected in CAM guidance. This regime will
continue through Friday with diurnal heating helping with some
spotty redevelopment in the afternoon. These will be widely
scattered and many locations will remain dry. Northern Iowa will
see the higher chances for activity with a modest increase in
forcing thanks to a weak embedded wave to the north. A secondary
weak embedded shortwave will pass across the area overnight
Friday into Saturday with continued chances for scattered
showers. Instability is very limited into the area with the gulf
cut off from the area so thunder chances area low, but a few
rumbles can`t be ruled out.

And finally by late Saturday into Sunday a more robust shortwave
will will dig across the northern plains and into the midwest. The
best forcing will move north of the area across Minnesota with a
trailing front that will pass across Iowa on Sunday morning. This
will bring the last chance for scattered showers to mainly northern
Iowa this weekend. The shortwave will also enhance the pressure
gradient across the area on Sunday with northwest winds
becoming breezy and gusting 20-30+ mph at times through the
afternoon. As the shortwave evolves into Monday model solutions
diverge, with the GFS favoring more wrap around precipitation
into northern Iowa with the Euro pulled further north.

The upcoming week starts off dry with temperatures gradually warming
thorugh the mid to upper 70s and into the low 80s by the middle of
the week. The next window for precipitation looks to arrive
with a late week system which will be better refined in the
days to come.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Primarily VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with
the primary impact to aviation being rain showers in northern
Iowa this evening and overnight. This will be most likely at
KFOD and KMCW, with KALO being on the fringe of the better rain
chances. Have left rain mention out of KALO TAF for now, but
did time out the most likely periods for rain at KFOD and
KMCW. Did not include any visibility restrictions due most of
the rain being light, but a few upstream sites have shown brief
drops in visibility down to 4 or 5 SM. KDSM and KOTM should
remain dry through the night, barring the low likelihood of a
well placed shower or sprinkle.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Dodson