835
FXUS63 KDMX 080332
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1032 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool tonight with a chance for some patchy frost in northern
  Iowa.

- Dry with seasonal temperatures the rest of today into
  tomorrow.

- Winds pick up again Thursday with a slight chance (15-25%)
  for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Today and Tomorrow... High surface pressure and northwest flow
aloft will advect additional cool air in overnight. With the
high pressure little pressure gradient and therefore light
winds and clear skies. All of this will create a good setup for
radiational cooling tonight. This could result in some frost in
parts of northern Iowa where the coolest temperatures are
expected. The general pattern will hold into tomorrow with a
very similar day expected. Tomorrow night though, the focus of
the coolest air should shift east to eastern Iowa.

Thursday into the Weekend... A change in the pattern arrives on
Thursday with a shortwave moving through. This will provide
enough synoptic forcing and a chance of some rain showers.
Model forecast profiles do not look favorable for instability
and this matches the SPC day 3 outlook with no general thunder
over Iowa. Warmer air moves back in Friday into the weekend with
highs back in the lower 80s once again possible. The low all
these air masses is associated with will also have frontal
passages associated with it. Along these fronts will be our next
chances for rain and gusty winds. Still a fair amount of spread
within global ensemble guidance (as expected). So will be
keeping an eye for future updates on where this trends to hone
in on forecast rainfall timing and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be
light from a northerly or northeasterly direction tonight
before becoming from the east or southeast by late morning into
the afternoon hours. Winds over northwest Iowa may near 12 knots
in the afternoon.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NC
AVIATION...Ansorge