103
FXUS63 KDMX 171932
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
232 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Muggy conditions into Monday, then more comfortable in the
  low to mid 80s mid to late week.

- Thunderstorms across northern Iowa this evening and overnight,
  becoming scattered across much of Iowa on Monday. Severe
  chances are low, but a few stronger storms may produce gusty
  winds or hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Convection early this morning largely remain north of the area aside
from a few isolated thunderstorms that crept into northern
Iowa. These have dissipated this afternoon, but with the warm
front a little further south the temperatures across northern
Iowa have remained in the low 80s. Into central and southern
Iowa temperatures have again soared into the upper 80s to low
90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Similar temperatures
are expected on Monday, however there is some uncertainty how
much lingering convection (discussed next) will impact highs.
Right now it appears there will be a lull in convection from
late morning through the afternoon, allowing for plenty of
warming. Should showers hang around longer, temperatures will
likely be several degrees cooler than currently forecast.

Next up are convective trends. Right now the warm front is draped
across north central Iowa roughly near the highway 20 corridor. As
this lifts north there`s a chance for isolated convection to develop
on the boundary, aided by more than sufficient instability (3000+
J/kg MLCAPE). Shear remains the limiting factor at under 30 kts and
should prevent more robust storm organization this afternoon and
evening.

Later tonight the wave with ongoing convection across South Dakota
slides into northwest Iowa. Initial convection is expected to be the
most robust with gusty wind the primary hazard. This line pushes
east through the overnight across northern Iowa as a secondary low
lifts into the area out of Nebraska and merges with the line. This
wave will progress across Iowa through Monday morning, diminishing
in strength through the morning as support from the low level
jet tapers off. By afternoon diurnal heating is expected to
reignite convection along the boundary. Right now this placement
looks to be across southeast Iowa, however placement could
shift towards central Iowa depending on haw quickly the boundary
progresses.

Temperatures cool behind the wave with highs in the low 80s
middle to end of the week. It`s also quiet with the next chance
for precipitation not arriving until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

Morning convection has tapered of across northern Iowa, though
scattered cloud cover remains in place. VFR conditions are
expected to last through the afternoon and much of the evening.
Late tonight storms move into northwest Iowa, expanding south
and east through Monday morning. Visibility and ceiling
reductions are likely within thunderstorms, in addition to gusty
winds. Thunderstorms are expected to be strongest in northwest
Iowa where a few severe storms may occur. As the line of storms
moves east on Monday morning convection is expected to become
more scattered in nature, eventually tapering off late morning.
Additional redevelopment is possible Monday afternoon beyond the
current period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff