014
FXUS63 KDMX 121948
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
248 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some near surface smoke possible near the state line this
  afternoon (40% confidence) with much of the smoke remaining
  aloft this weekend.

- <20% chance of showers and storms across the north Sunday
  afternoon. Again in the northeast on Monday afternoon.

- Next best chance of rain arrives by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The low-level moisture fetch has been shoved to the south and east
this morning, leaving little for the passing wave to the northeast
to tap into. We`re left with some midlevel cloud debris as well as
smoke in the upper levels. Some of this will reach the surface
via post-frontal subsidence this afternoon near the IA-MN state
line, but much of this will miss much of IA and instead be
carried around the high pressure center and back towards the
north. There is another weak wave that will dive into the
Central Plains from Colorado this afternoon and reinforce the
block of Gulf moisture along with the redirection of smoke
mentioned earlier.

The aforementioned central Plains wave keeps the low-level moisture
away from the area for at least the first half of the week, but it
will also put the state in northwest flow and open us up to a series
of waves from Canada. The LLJ will also reemerge into the
Northern Plains later on Monday. It will intersect with a system
that is forecasted to impact Minnesota, later dragging its cold
front (and the main moisture axis) across Iowa on Tuesday night
into Wednesday. This front will then stall somewhere near
southern Iowa, hence the broad rain and storm chances for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

BKN deck across the southeast will become SCT and VFR this hour
as the atmosphere mixes. Short-lived MVFR from HZ possible at
times this afternoon. Transient enough to leave it out of the
TAF, but will monitor the short term. Additional smoke should
stay aloft across the north, hence the high-level ceiling
preserved for the period. KALO and KDSM may see fog tonight as
winds become light. Have left as BCFG for now, but will evaluate
for VSBY restrictions for the next issuance.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jimenez
AVIATION...Jimenez