Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
733
FNUS73 KDLH 182056
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Evergreen...MN DNR
National Weather Service Duluth MN
356 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on October 18.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies this afternoon will slowly give way to increasing
cloud cover this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.
Min RH in the low 30 percent range will gradually recover through
the remainder of the afternoon and evening, holding steady at
55-60 percent from 8 PM into the early overnight hours. Breezy
southerly winds of 7-10 mph will continue to gust to 10-14 mph
into early tonight before weakening for the remainder of tonight
into early/mid Saturday morning. There is a very low chance (10
percent) for a stray shower mid to late evening, otherwise
scattered rain shower chances improve to 40-50% overnight into
Saturday morning. Total accumulations remain light, however, with
total expected rainfall between 0.1-0.2 inches. RH recovery to 80
percent is expected by early tomorrow morning.
Rain moves out by late Saturday morning. Expect winds to veer to
primarily southwesterly from late Saturday morning into Sunday as
the weakening cold front stalls out across east-central MN and
then pushes back north as a cold front on Sunday. These winds will
be around 6-8 mph with gusts to 10-14 mph from midday Saturday
through the afternoon hours before weakening overnight and then
gusting back up to 14-19 mph daytime Sunday. Min RH will be higher
on Saturday at 60 percent during the afternoon, recover to near
100 percent on Saturday night, and then drop back to 45-50 percent
on Sunday afternoon. Temperatures remain above average each day,
with highs even hitting the mid to upper 70s on Sunday afternoon.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 10 10 20 30 30 40 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............67 61 58 57 57 57 56 57 56 56 55 55
RH..............42 51 60 59 59 57 59 57 59 59 66 69
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..7 6 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5
20 FT wind gust.11 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S SW
Transp wind spd.13 12 14 13 14 15 15 15 14 15 14 12
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10009 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers early in the morning, then slight
chance of rain showers late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 2400 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3600-16400 knot-ft) increasing to
fair to good (24500-31400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40 50 40 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............53 53 53 55 57 59 62 63 64 65 65 65
RH..............74 77 80 80 75 72 65 65 63 60 63 63
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6
20 FT wind gust.7 7 7 8 8 9 12 12 13 13 13 11
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.0
Transp wind dir.SW S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.9 9 9 12 12 12 13 15 15 14 15 14
Haines index....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 4 8 9 11 16 25 27 27 31 25
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............63 59 55 54 52 52 51 50 49 49 49 49
RH..............67 78 93 93 96 96 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT wind gust.8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.9 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/10005 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph increasing to 17 to 23
mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3800-17600 knot-ft) increasing to
good to excellent (43300-80200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............49 49 53 57 61 65 70 73 75 76 76 74
RH..............96 96 89 82 75 66 59 53 50 49 50 54
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..4 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 7
20 FT wind gust.6 11 12 14 14 15 16 18 19 19 18 15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.9 2.9
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.10 12 13 14 16 18 22 23 23 23 21 17
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10004 4 7 11 18 30 48 62 73 80 70 43
$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Chris Henkel
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2424388.1/DLH
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher.henkel@state.mn.us