906
FNUS73 KDLH 192055
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Grant-Hope Lakes Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
355 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 CDT on September 19.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and storms tonight expected to bring around a
tenth of an inch of rainfall this evening, with a reasonable
"worst case" scenario of around a half inch of rainfall depending
on the track and evolution of individual showers and storms. The
probability for receiving a quarter inch or more of rainfall is
35 percent. (Conversely, the probability of receiving LESS than
quarter inch at the incident site is 65 percent.)

On Friday morning some patch morning fog is possibly, otherwise
skies will start partly cloudy but clearing out by late morning
with sunny skies in the afternoon. Winds will be out of the west-
southwest around 10 mph with a few gusts to 15 mph. Relative
humidity values will fall around to 45 to 50 percent in the
afternoon. Smoke dispersal will be good through the afternoon.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight. Patchy fog early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1900, then 4 until 2100, then 5 until
                    2200, then 3 until 2400, then 2 until 0100,
                    then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around 21
                    mph in the evening and overnight becoming
                    light. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.15 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC SCH                 PTY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW                  FOG
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).40  50  50  60  40  30  20  10  10  10  10  0
LAL.............3   4   4   5   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............76  74  69  67  64  63  63  62  63  62  62  60
RH..............71  77  90  93  100 100 100 100 97  100 93  99
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   6   6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.21  19  19  18  16  16  14  14  13  13  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  16  16  17  17  15  14  12  12  12  12  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR CLR
Weather cov.....PTY PTY
Weather type....FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  59  58  62  65  68  70  72  73  74  75  74
RH..............100 95  100 97  86  77  69  63  59  58  53  56
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   5   5   6   7   6   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.11  11  12  13  14  14  15  16  16  15  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 2.2 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.5 4.6 3.9
Transp wind dir.SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  12  13  14  17  17  16  16  16  14
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Joe
Requested by...Joanie Lawrence
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422767.0/DLH
.DELDT 09/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joan.lawrence@usda.gov