730
FNUS73 KDLH 241709
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Brimson Complex...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1209 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 CDT on May 24.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers can be expected across the site through the
afternoon, ending around sunset. While thunder is not expected
with most showers, some heavier showers may certainly contain some
thunder and lightning. Rainfall amounts are tricky because of the
scattered nature of the showers, but in general, expect a few
hundredths of an inch of rainfall today and there is a less likely
scenario where up to a couple tenths of an inch of rain could fall
if showers happen to track perfectly over the site through the
afternoon, leading to localized and short-duration downpours. The
lake breeze boundary is expected to be fairly weak today, roughly
between Two Harbors and Wales. There could be some enhanced shower
activity around this boundary, and while this is largely expected
to remain southeast of the Brimson Complex, it`s still possible
that the lake breeze could move inland just a bit more later this
afternoon, leading to the best chances of rain around 3 to 4 PM.
Showers are expected to be on-and-off, lasting up to 10-15 minutes
with breaks in-between. Generally light winds from the east,
becoming southeast this afternoon as the lake breeze moves a bit
further inland. Showers and storms may produce changing wind directions
with some localized gusts up to 15-20 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
                    Chance of rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7800 ft AGL decreasing to 4700 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (44400-59400 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (32400 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.05 inches.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  40  40  30
Temp............59  59  60  60  60  59
RH..............40  39  37  39  41  40
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.7   8   7   7   7   8
Mix hgt (kft)...7.4 7.8 7.4 6.1 4.6 4.7
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  E   SE
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   7   8   8
SDspl kt-ft/100059  55  44  37  32  33

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening. Slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the evening.
                    Patchy frost after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL decreasing to 1500 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph shifting to the south 5
                    to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (10700-23500 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor (1000 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC                              PATCHY
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FROST
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     0      0      0      0
Temp............59     52     43     40     38     36
RH..............42     54     84     93     94     95
20 ft wind......S 3    SE 2   SE 2   SE 1   N 0    N 0
20 ft wind gust.8      6      7      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3800   1500   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..SW 7   S 8    S 7    S 7    S 7    S 6
SDspl kt-ft/100023     11     2      2      2      1

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy frost early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 3300 ft AGL late in
                    the morning, then increasing to 8200 ft AGL
                    late in the morning decreasing to 5300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 6 mph shifting to the west
                    around 3 mph early in the morning, then
                    shifting to the north in the late morning and
                    afternoon shifting to the west around 8 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1200-13300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (39500-57700 knot-ft) late in the morning,
                    then decreasing to good (36500 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     MCLEAR    MCLEAR    PCLDY
Weather cov.....PATCHY
Weather type....FROST     NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         10
Temp............37        54        66        66
RH..............95        57        32        30
20 FT wind......N 0G5     N 1G5     N 3G8     E 3G9
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1500      7400      7300
Transport wind..S 6       NW 3      N 8       NW 7
SDspl kt-ft/10001         5         51        46

$$
Forecaster...Josh
Requested by...Mike Locke
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2514051.18/DLH
.DELDT 05/24/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nwsduluth-slcrs@noaa.gov,milocke@paulbunyan.net