021
FXUS63 KDLH 082324
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal Thursday and
  again this weekend.

- Rainfall chances return for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

High pressure was in control across the Upper Midwest this
afternoon leading to mainly clear skies across the region. Winds
were light and variable across most of the Northland with more
southerly winds across central Minnesota near the periphery of
the high. As the high moves to the east tonight into Thursday,
southerly return flow will set up across the Northland with
winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph. This will also bring in warmer
air with highs reaching into the 60s. Dewpoints will trend
higher through the day as some low level moisture works in
helping to alleviate the very dry conditions and near-critical
fire weather conditions experienced today.

An upper low will drop southeastward from Manitoba into Ontario
Thursday night and then over Lake Superior on Friday. A cold
front will move through the Northland bringing chances for a few
showers, mainly across the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin
Thursday evening into Friday. Any QPF amounts are expected to be
light with this system. Cooler air will arrive behind the front
with near normal highs Friday in the middle 50s to middle 60s.
High pressure will dry things out for Saturday with highs
trending above normal once again in the 60s with upper 50s along
the North Shore with onshore flow off Lake Superior.

Low pressure will emerge from the northern Rockies into
Saskatchewan Sunday with a cold front extending into the
Northern Plains. Moisture advection ahead of this front across
the western Great Lakes will bring rainfall chances to the
Northland for Sunday into Monday morning when the cold front
passes. High pressure then returns to start the week before
another chance of rainfall returns for midweek. Temperatures
will trend near normal for the new week with highs in the middle
50s to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. High pressure in the
region will keep winds light and variable, briefly turning
southeast this evening and then southerly tonight into Thursday.
Can`t rule out a few gusts to 15 kt at INL and BRD tonight, but
an inversion should keep this potential minimal. Some LLWS is
possible at INL and HIB tonight into early Thursday morning.
Southerly winds on Thursday with daytime gusts to 15-25 kt
starting around 14-16Z, strongest near BRD. Scattered rain
showers are possible late Thursday afternoon and evening ahead
of a cold front, but have held off on any mention of rain in the
TAFs for late Thursday afternoon given probabilities are less
than 20%. Rain chances increase for east-central Minnesota, the
Minnesota Arrowhead, and northwest Wisconsin Thursday evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

High pressure will keep winds light and variable for the
remainder of the afternoon. As the high begins to shift east
tonight, winds will turn southerly/southwesterly and begin to
increase to 6 to 12 knots with gusts to 15 to 20 knots by
daybreak. Winds further increase for the afternoon and evening
hours, primarily along the North Shore east of Silver Bay and
across the Outer Apostle Islands, to 10 to 20 knots with gusts
to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories will be possible mainly from
Grand Marais to Grand Portage during the afternoon and into the
evening hours. These winds will generate waves of 2 to 5 feet.
Winds then swing around to the northwest early Friday morning as
a cold front passes.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH