600
FXUS63 KDLH 111042
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
542 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures today with another warming trend
  beginning Wednesday, but becoming more noticeable Thursday and
  Friday back into the 50s to 60s.

- Light snow of a dusting to half inch tonight.

- A potent Colorado low will bring widespread rain, localized
  minor flooding, and scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon
  into Saturday, and possibly some accumulating snow late
  Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

The warm temperatures yesterday creating melting snowfall and
light rainfall last evening could create a glaze of ice on
surfaces from the post-frontal temperature decrease early this
morning. Surface observations show many places in the low teens
to low 20s in northern Minnesota. The most likely impacted
places would be either elevated and/or untreated surfaces for
the morning commute hours today. High pressure builds into the
Northland by mid to late morning though so winds quickly
decrease and begin to back westerly then southwesterly in the
afternoon under clear skies. Lingering seasonably cold air aloft
aids in high temperatures today peaking in the upper-20s to
mid-30s in the Northland.

Weak low-level shortwave troughing aided by a mid-level jet
streak passes over the MN/MB/ON lands tonight to create another
round of light precipitation chances through Wednesday morning.
After the primary forcing and moisture exit the region though
Wednesday early morning around sunrise, lingering very low
moisture profiles indicate freezing drizzle possibilities for
the North Shore and inland Cook County Wednesday morning. One
factor will be how much ice aloft is lost as the dry air sets up
from 850-700 mb layer. At this point the higher confidence is
on low-level clouds occurring over the tip of the Arrowhead and
periodic snow chances before sunrise turning over the mainly
freezing drizzle after sunrise. A glaze of ice could not be
ruled out then for Cook County tomorrow.

Mid-level ridging enters and amplifies over the eastern
Continental US tomorrow afternoon, which creates a warmer
southwesterly flow pattern into the Northland. Expect slightly
above normal temperatures in the upper-30s to 40s for Wednesday
afternoon highs ahead of further increasing temperatures into
Thursday from upper-40s to low-60s. Weak impulses of energy
supported by a stationary front embedded in an inverted trough
from the ND/MB border into central Ontario Thursday may (10-20%
chance) create light rain shower potential mainly for northern
Minnesota Thursday into Friday.

A deepening Colorado Low pressure system on Friday further
advects in a notable warm nose aloft of 850 mb temperatures
shown in medium-range deterministic of 10 to 13 C and
precipitable water values in the column aloft in the 99th
percentile of climatology. Forecast temperatures have a low to
moderate potential for setting a new daily high temperature at
southern Northland Climate sites as current forecast calls for
highs in the mid to upper-60s. The more likely record breaking
temperatures would be the very warm compared to normal warm low
temperatures forecast in the upper-30s to low-40s. Specific
values for this forecast issuance can be viewed in the .CLIMATE
section below.

The primary period of rainfall associated with a warm front
lifting northward Friday PM is expected to bring slight chances
of thunder and a convective element to a light to moderate more
stratiform rain bands. Deterministic model soundings show signs
of the conditions supporting stronger thunderstorms in the late
afternoon and evening hours Friday as 600-800 J/kg of CAPE and
bulk shear around 40 knots set up south of US Hwy 2. Rainfall
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are possible (40-70% chance) by
Saturday morning, with the highest amounts for the MN/WI border
into the Brainerd Lakes and along the US Hwy 53 corridor in
northern Minnesota. As the low center lifts through central
Minnesota Saturday daytime, colder air that was back in the Red
River Valley region enters north-central Minnesota and prompts a
change over to a rain/snow mix first in the Brainerd Lakes. All
rainfall remains expected Saturday daytime for the Arrowhead
and South Shore snowbelts, which could be falling on top of a
steadily-melting snowpack depending on melt rates through the
rest of this week. Any of this moderate to localized heavy rain
on top of a primed snowpack in these more narrow basins could
cause minor flooding impacts along the South Shore and the
Arrowhead. One of the primary factors to watch will be the late
week snow-to-water liquid equivalent measurements at these sites
to better help assess any further possible minor flood
potential from a rain-on-snow event Saturday.

The upper-bounds of rainfall from this system, outside of any
very localized convective enhancement, is currently expected to
be 1 (40% chance of occurring) to 1.5 (10% chance of occurring)
inches along the Interstate 35 corridor and Brainerd Lakes.

The rain to snow transitions continues west to east Saturday
evening and may (20-30% chance) result in up to a few inches of
wet snowfall for north-central Minnesota as the low pressure
center lifts northeastward out of the Great Lakes by Sunday
morning. A tightened pressure gradient following the wrap-around
northwesterly flow will create blustery winds Sunday with
temperatures forecast in the 20s to low-30s.

Trailing clipper systems on Monday and Tuesday could (10-30%
chance) bring further very light precipitation to the Northland
as temperatures rebound to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Post-frontal northwesterly winds gusting to 30 knots persist
through 12Z this morning, but taper from northwest to southeast
beginning at 09Z near INL. MVFR ceilings are forecast to clear
last in northwest Wisconsin around 12/13Z this morning, with
some TAF sites seeing clear and sunny skies through 21Z for
much of Tuesday. Light northwest winds after 12Z today become
light and variable in the afternoon and to end this TAF period.
Another weak shortwave trough could enter the region from
northwest Minnesota after 03Z Wednesday to create an area of
light snowfall chances through 12Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Northwest winds gusting to 25 knots still along the far North
Shore keep Small Craft Advisories around through mid-morning
today. Around and after sunrise this morning, the pressure
gradient winds will decrease in speed and slowly become westerly
then southwesterly this afternoon. Winds then remain under 20
knots into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Record High Temperature

March 14:
KBRD: 64/2012 - Forecast: 63


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 14:
KINL: 38/2010 - Forecast: 39
KBRD: 43/2016 - Forecast: 48
KHIB: 41/2010 - Forecast: 39
KASX: 39/1995 - Forecast: 44

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
CLIMATE...NLy