767
FXUS63 KDLH 031338
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
838 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible today,
  especially over the Arrowhead and BWCA, due to low relative
  humidity, dry conditions, and breezy south to southwest winds.

- Continued to slow down arrival of widespread showers tonight,
  due to dry air in place, with rainfall totals through Friday
  of 0.10 to 0.50 inch.

- A risk for isolated severe thunderstorms exists Thursday with
  large hail and damaging winds possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Updated forecast to lower RH`s today based on obs trending lower
than forecast. Went with the lowest guidance available in the
sneaky fire weather setup where RH`s tend to fall in advance of
an incoming system. Moisture content increases aloft, but
surface RH remains dry especially in longer periods of
dry/drought conditions. Also tried to account for outflow from
convection that will cross north-central Minnesota for some
improved RH values there this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The Northland sits between high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes and a weak, vertically-stacked low pressure over south
Central Canada. As the upper low pushes eastward today, the
upper level ridge over the area will retreat southward, and a
weak front will approach from the west. Ongoing convection to
our west this morning will lift to the northeast, with additional
convection remaining west of the Northland through much of the
day. Cannot rule out a few showers across northwest central MN
through the day, but drier air will limit coverage. Have pulled
back rain chances through the day, given the drier air, with
CAMs continuing to show limited rain coverage through the day
today.

Ahead of any rainfall today, winds will increase from the south
to southwest and be breezy at times, with gusts to 20-25 mph.
Low level moisture will be increasing, but minimum RH values
will still mix down into the mid-20 percent range this afternoon,
mainly across the Arrowhead and BWCA. There is some question
about cloud cover and how much high and mid level clouds will
prevent RHs from falling significantly.

A more robust line of showers and storms will approach the area
this evening, as the upper low moves eastward through southern
Manitoba and a weak front drops into the Northland. Better
forcing aloft will be rotating northeastward and out of the
area, with lapse rates weakening and wind fields aloft not being
particularly strong. While a thunderstorm or two is possible,
do not expect severe activity. Rainfall amounts through Thursday
morning of a few hundredths to a quarter inch are possible.
Higher amounts will be where a storm/heavier rain tracks, with
accumulations likely not being uniform across the area.

Will see additional showers and storms develop during the day
Thursday into Thursday evening, along that weak cold front.
Weaker lapse rates could limit storm strength, but dewpoints
will surge into the low to mid 60s from Pine Co, MN eastward
across northwest WI, increasing CAPE values to over 1000J/kg.
Add in 25-30 kts of shear, and cannot rule out an organized
isolated severe threat.

A secondary cold front arrives Thursday night, providing a wind
shift to the west then northwest. This boundary lingers across
the area through Saturday, providing a focus for showers and
maybe a storm or two, mainly south of US-2. Not much of a cooldown
is expected, as highs remain in the upper 70s and 80s Friday
and Saturday (away from the immediate shoreline). Light variable
winds turning easterly through the day Saturday. A drier and
much hotter airmass arrives early next week. Highs will climb
back into the upper 80s and low 90s for Sunday and Monday with
winds shifting to the southeast at 5 to 15 mph - though as
always this time of year cooler by the lake. Precipitation
chances will return early next week, although guidance varies
how much moisture will be available as the next weather maker
approaches the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions will be continuing across the region today with
breezy south winds. Expect cloud cover to increase this afternoon as
a cold front approaches the region, bringing chances for showers and
thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Thunderstorms will be most
likely over KBRD, with the potential for IFR visibility as decaying
strong to severe storms from western MN arrive. In addition to rain
arriving late, MVFR and later IFR cigs will be moving in from west
to east as the front continues to propagate through the area. One
final thing of note is LLWS potential early Thursday morning, mainly
across northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For Western Lake Superior, quiet conditions with waves around 1
foot or less and south to southwest winds at less than 10kts
are expected today. The exception will be near Grand Portage
where southwest winds at 10-20kts and waves of 1-3ft are
possible for a few hours this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. No
small craft advisories are currently in effect.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 838 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Updated forecast to lower RH`s today based on obs trending lower
than forecast. Went with the lowest guidance available in the
sneaky fire weather setup where RH`s tend to fall in advance of
an incoming system. Moisture content increases aloft, but
surface RH remains dry especially in longer periods of
dry/drought conditions. Also tried to account for outflow from
convection that will cross north-central Minnesota for some
improved RH values there this afternoon.

Today, another day of near-critical fire weather is expected,
especially across portions of the Arrowhead and BWCA, as
southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25
mph. Relative humidity will fall to 25 to 35 percent. A wind
shift to the west will occur across northeast MN, as a weak
cold front arrives overnight into Thursday morning. A second
cold front arrives Thursday night, with winds becoming
northwesterly over northeast MN. Rain chances increase this
evening through Friday, with 0.10 - 0.50 inch of rainfall
possible. Highest rainfall totals will be south of US-2 and
across northwest WI. Warmer temperatures expected early next
week, with more chances for precipitation.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolfe
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA