815
FXUS63 KDLH 151350
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
750 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog this morning. A fog bank may develop on Lake Superior
  and move into the North Shore this afternoon

- A light wintry mix is possible (40%) for far northern MN this
  evening and overnight. There is also a chance (15%) for some
  light rain to move across NW WI tonight.

 -An impactful winter system will move into the Upper Midwest
  late Tuesday and continue through early Thursday. This system
  will be bringing an initial wintry mix and then the potential
  for moderate to heavy, wet snowfall. Travel impacts are
  likely to occur.

- The active weather pattern continues late this upcoming week
  with additional chances for snowfall and more seasonal
  temperatures.&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure remains in place this morning with a shallow
upper level trough moving in from the west. This trough is
introducing some increased cloud cover and while we do see some
radar returns the amount of dry air in the lower levels will
evaporate any falling hydrometeors. This cloud cover is likely
hindering fog development this morning but upstream we can
still see some dense fog in the clearing areas of the Red River
Valley. Closer to sunrise we may still see some areas of dense
fog but widespread impacts look unlikely given the clouds
streaming aloft. Any fog that does develop will erode through
the latter morning hours.

Southwesterly winds through the day will continue to promote warm
air advection and the eastern half of our CWA should see a fair bit
of sunshine. Cloud cover will start roaming in from the west in the
afternoon. We still opted to bump temperatures above suggested
guidance given the trend over the last couple days but cloud cover
may temper those temperatures a bit. For now, expect highs in the
40s with isolated pockets in the low 50s. Additionally, there is a
fairly consistent signal for fog to develop over Lake Superior later
this morning. If this fog bank materializes it will slowly
migrate north as southerly winds usher it to the North Shore
during the afternoon hours.

Tonight:

A low pressure system moving across central Ontario will have it`s
trailing cold front slide through northern MN leading to some
precipitation chances. A warm nose extends across most of the region
and surface temperatures will likely take awhile before dropping to
below freezing. Light rain is the most likely outcome until after
midnight when the profile cools, but even then it will likely be a
rain snow mix. Accumulations will be minimal. This forecast package
does introduce some new PoPs for NW WI tonight as well. A few of the
CAMs have picked up on a weak surface low moving across southern MN
increasing lift and leading to some rain chances as well.

Monday:

Quiet Monday with surface high pressure over the region. High
temps are expected to be in the 40s. Would not be totally
surprised if we need to bump these temps up a few more degrees.
Especially considering the higher sun angle and the low albedo
of our forested region.

Mid Week Winter System; Late Tuesday - Thursday

Setup:

A deep upper level trough digging into the West Coast will send a
strong upper level jet gutting through the Four Corners spawning a
low pressure in the Northern Rockies on Tuesday. This low will
then proceed to accelerate and strengthen as it travels across
the Northern Plains and towards the Great Lakes. The low then
looks to either retrograde over Ontario or make a beeline for the
Hudson Bay depending on the model.

High Confidence Portion:

Confidence is high in the system moving in late Tuesday with
lingering impacts into early Thursday. The system will also boast
some impressive PWATs upwards of 0.75" which is over the max of
climatology for this time of year. While certainly an anomaly it
seems very plausible given an atmospheric river heading into Baja
that the low will be able to siphon off of, plus some added Gulf
moisture to boot. Another interesting tidbit with this system is the
sheer strength it is projected to have. A few clusters have the
low sitting at around 986mb which would be the at the minimum
of the CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of year.

So what does this mean for the Northland and what else do we have
high confidence in? Given the plume of moisture and strong forcing
associated with this low the worse conditions for heaviest
precipitation are lining up to be Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. The strength of the low pressure system will also see
strong winds across the region, especially along the North
Shore. The latest EFI values continue to trend upwards for
northern MN with an area of 0.95 over the North Shore, the area
also has a SoT of 2 indicating a higher boom potential for snow
amounts. QPF plumes for the North Shore do show some good
clustering in excess of 10" based on a 10:1 SLR. Overall,
northern MN stands the best chance at seeing some heavy snow
with 6" in 48 hrs probabilities of 50-80%.

Uncertainty Portion:

But what are we less certain off? Low track still remains highly
contested between the GEFS and EPS. Previously they had stopped
feuding and had some good consensus with clustering lows over
southern MN by Wednesday morning. Unfortunately there has been some
division with latest trends. The GEFS remains firm with its stance
but the EPS is opting for a split low system with a low in the Red
River Valley and another in Southern MN. Looking at the 850mb temp
trends over the past 6 model runs also shows a slow shift towards
the north with each run. This all leads to a question of how far
will the warm front extend into the Duluth CWA producing more rain
then snow? For now, we have stuck with the NBM solution which has
the warm front crossing through the inland portions of NW WI. But
given the recent trend in the Euro that may be shifting north into
the Twin Ports.

Second Half of the System:

With such high uncertainty on the low track the forecast Wednesday
and beyond is very muddy. Wednesday should see a lowering in
intensity as the low pressure starts to fill. QPF will also
decrease and more cold air will work in from the North. The
location of a warm nose remains highly contested and could lead
to some problematic freezing rain on Wednesday. This system does
look to exit late Thursday but there may be another low right
on its heels providing us with another dose of winter. Currently
we are carrying 30% PoPs for the second system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Another morning with lingering fog issues for portions of the
Northland. Primarily concerned with INL/BRD. High clouds moving
across the region look to have put the brakes on further fog
development at the other terminals. Satellite does show a fog bank
slowly advancing towards BRD this morning. INL is a little tricker
as high clouds still mask what is going on at the surface and most
of the guidance wants to drop the terminal to IFR or LIFR through
most of the morning. Looking at satellite there is a LIFR deck
in the far northwestern portion of Koochiching but the cloud
has remained stationary. Going to go against guidance and keep
LIFR conditions out of INL. Most the region should see a return
to mostly sunny skies today with clouds increasing in the
afternoon out of the west. A pair of passing lows could bring
some light rain fall this evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 748 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A fog bank is expanding southwestward into western Lake
Superior, with a small area of fog just northeast of the Outer
Apostle Islands, as well. There is some question as to how far
southwest the expanding fog bank gets before winds switch to
southerly today and stop the southward expansion of the fog
bank. For now, have issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory through
10 PM CST for Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where confidence
is highest in seeing dense fog through this evening. Expansions
to the advisory may be needed.

Previous Discussion: Light winds and minimal waves through
Monday. A fog bank could develop later this morning over the
Outer Apostle Islands and northeast into the open waters. If
this cloud does develop the southerly winds will push it towards
the North Shore in the afternoon hours. Beyond that there is a
lot of disagreement with fog going forward, several models
suggest it will expand and engulf the rest of the Lake through
Monday.

Northeast winds will ramp up Tuesday ahead of an approaching low
pressure system. Gales look likely across the Near Shore waters
starting Tuesday night with potential for storm force winds along
the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ033.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Rothstein