567
FXUS63 KDLH 301141
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect today and this evening
  for a high risk of rip currents at Twin Ports beaches.

- An active pattern arrives Sunday night and continues into
  Monday with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  likely. A few storms on Sunday night into Monday morning may
  become strong to severe from the Brainerd Lakes to I-35
  corridor.

- Depending on the time of arrival of an occluded front on
  Monday, additional severe thunderstorms may occur over
  northwest Wisconsin on Monday afternoon. Uncertainty on this
  second round of severe storms is high at this time.

- A more benign pattern settles over the area around mid-week
  before additional chances for rain arrive later in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Strong northeast winds and increasing wave action will result in
a high risk for rip currents at Twin Ports beaches today and
this evening. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued.

Also seeing some potential for areas of dense fog development
early this morning if the current very low cloud heights
(300-700 ft above the ground) are able to build closer to the
ground.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Rain showers and maybe a few general thunderstorms are expected
this morning across the southern half of the area. No severe
weather is expected with this morning activity. As the day
progresses, conditions will remain quiet but humid, with skies
varying between overcast and partly sunny. Capping will keep
most of the region dry through the afternoon hours. Strong
northeast winds will lead to increased waves along beaches in
the Twin Ports, which will lead to an increased chance for rip
currents today through this evening.

Another round of showers and storms returns tonight. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with the highest likelihood
focused in north central Minnesota and extending east towards
Lake Mille Lacs to Hibbing to International Falls. Due to their
elevated nature from the cap aloft and a similar environment to
the previous discussion below, the main hazards will still be
large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging winds up to 60
mph. An abundance of moisture will also lead to periods of
heavy rain as a warm front lifts northward across our region.

Timing on the passage of the occluded front will determine chances
for severe weather Monday afternoon as well. Most models show
the front moving out of the area by time any convection is
initiated, but there is a low chance that they form before the
front exits the Northland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak amplitude shortwave has been propagating through today, with
scattered showers associated with isentropic ascent moving
downstream of the CWA this afternoon. In the wake of this precip,
skies have been varying between overcast in the southern half of the
CWA to mostly sunny near the International Border. Conditions stay
on the quieter side this afternoon into tonight as a 500mb ridge
briefly slides over the area. This ridge will be fairly messy though
with multiple vorticity maxima propagating through tonight into
early tomorrow morning, which could develop an isolated shower.
Despite these shots of vorticity coming through, keeping the
potential low at a 20-25% chance due to a significant cap expected
to develop around 800mb as southerly winds bring WAA to the area.

This WAA advection will usher in warmer temperatures on Sunday for
the southern edge of the CWA, with highs increasing to the low 80s
and dewpoint temps becoming sticky in the mid to upper 60 degree
range. The aforementioned capping inversion will likely inhibit
convective initiation through the daytime hours on Sunday with skies
varying between partly to mostly cloudy.

A warm front associated with vertically-stacked low pressure over
the Canadian Prairies is anticipated to lift north on Sunday night,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms that will continue
until Monday morning. A sizable amount of instability will be
associated with the warm front, with MUCAPE from CAMs indicating
potential values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range on Sunday night
around the Brained Lakes towards the I-35 corridor. This will
also be accompanied by favorable 0-6km bulk shear up to 40
knots. However, it`s worth noting that this is a large
divergence from global models, which put timing of peak
instability and shear later into Monday. This increases
uncertainty with this warm fropa. If timing of peak instability
happens more overnight, large hail to ping pong ball size is the
primary hazard with damaging winds being unlikely due to the
low-level cap. SPC has the southwestern corner of the CWA in a
Marginal Risk on Sunday night.

On Monday, the severe thunderstorm potential shifts into northwest
Wisconsin as the occluded front associated with the sfc low moves
through. Again, impacts on Monday will largely be dependent on
timing of this occluded fropa. If the earlier timing becomes
favored, most of the convection will likely be exiting by early
Monday afternoon and severe storms will be limited to elevated
hailers.

If the later timing favored in global models, such as the GFS,
occurs then this front will be sweeping through northwest Wisconsin
during peak diurnal heating and allow for 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
to develop. With 0-6km bulk shear remaining around 40-45 knots,
this could lead to supercell development. If supercells
develop, all hazards are possible including damaging winds to 70
mph, large hail up to golf ball size, and locally heavy rain
with PWAT to 1.6". A tornado or two also can`t be ruled out as
hodographs indicate a moderately favorable 60-100 m2/s2 of SRH
available to right-moving supercells. This is highly uncertain
at this time though given the discrepancies in timing between
the various models.

Following the occluded frontal passage on Monday, a more benign
pattern settles over the region for mid-week with slightly cooler
high temps. Low pressure, following a typical Colorado Low type
track, will bring a chance for additional showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday. Additional precipitation will be possible later in the
week as the 500mb pattern remains active.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Patchy dense fog at DLH and INL early this morning, with patchy
fog and light fog and IFR to LIFR/VLIFR ceilings in stratus
gradually improving this morning. Some scattered, light rain
showers in central Minnesota east to parts of northwest
Wisconsin slowly move north through the morning. Conditions
will improve this afternoon with ceilings at most terminals
improving to MVFR to VFR. Additional development of elevated,
scattered showers and thunderstorms occur later this evening
into tonight primarily associated with warm advection area north
of a surface warm front. INL and HIB have the best potential to
see these showers and thunderstorms. Expect deteriorating
conditions again starting this evening, with low ceilings and
fog returning tonight.

Easterly to southeasterly winds of 6-12 kt with gusts to 15-20
kt persist throughout today and this evening. Some stronger
onshore gusts up to 25 kt are expected for DLH and locations
near Lake Superior.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Northeast winds will strengthen today into Monday morning as
low pressure moves into the region. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for all nearshore waters starting this morning for
gusts to 25-30 kt and wave heights of 2 to 5 ft. Thunderstorms
are possible tonight into Monday as an occluded front moves
east. Winds ease below 10 kt late Monday before turning
southwest with gusts of 15-25 kt on Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low overall as minimum relative
humidity stays above 40 percent through the week. Easterly
winds become breezy today into tonight, gusting 15 to 25 mph.
Winds will shift to the west on Monday morning as a front sweeps
through. Strong to severe storms Sunday night and Monday could
produce erratic winds, hail, and lightning.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Monday for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT
     Monday for LSZ143>145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT
     Monday for LSZ146-147-150.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...KML
FIRE WEATHER...KML