290
FXUS63 KDLH 222330
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly nights continue: Frost is possible again Friday morning as
  mostly clear skies and light wind drives temperatures down.

- Gradual warm up: Temperatures will slowly climb through the
  weekend, reaching into the upper 60s/lower 70s by Monday.
  Possibly even close to 80 by Thursday!

- No appreciable chances for widespread precipitation across
  the Northland through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Finally, after several dreary days, a near perfect spring day
arrived! Highs today are in the 60s across the Northland, with
an ob or two even reading into the 70s. The previous forecaster
did a great job of raising temps above guidance for the weather
pattern we are in.

If you`re looking for great weather for Memorial Day Weekend,
we have good news. We`re settling into a relatively uneventful
stretch of weather. Aside from a gradual warm up, we don`t
expect any significant changes to our sensible weather day to
day through the weekend. Primary concerns will remain to be if
overnight temps drop low enough for frost concerns, and
persistent dry conditions.

A large scale omega block remains over much of Canada, with its
eastern cutoff low centered over Ontario and Quebec. The pattern
is creating a split flow across the continent with the main
branch of the subtropical jet stretching from the northern
Pacific coast into the Carolinas. A subtle ridge will begin to
propagate eastward into the northern Plains and portions of the
upper Midwest tonight. While the blocking pattern will slowly
break down over the weekend, at the surface, high pressure will
drop south. This will continue to rush in drier air, especially
into NW MN, and warmer temperatures. Min RH values will reach
25-30% daily. Today, the wind is forecast to be the strongest
it will reach through the weekend. Regardless, we will have to
keep an eye on fire weather concerns through the weekend.
Temperatures will gradually raise through the weekend.

Tonight, a slug of 850 moisture will seep into the arrowhead
creating chances for a few sprinkles. With the dry air at the
surface, not much of anything that falls will hit the ground.
Areas that remain mostly clear through the overnight will drop
temperatures close to freezing. By morning, most of the region
should be affected, so a Frost Warning remains in effect. Have
held off on one for Friday night - there is a little more
moisture moving in that may keep temps from completely tanking.

Early next week, a split flow pattern returns. The northern
branch of the jet will be over N. Canada, while the southern
branch will be over N. Mexico, placing the upper midwest between
these two jets. All that to say, high pressure and warm temps
will remain the main story (possibly even widespread 70s by
Thursday!). Widespread precip chances remain almost null for
this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Quiet conditions at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Winds
will continue to decrease this evening before becoming light and
variable overnight. Signals for fog for BRD and HYR continue to
be too low to include in the forecast. Similar to today, winds
10-15kts are expected with SCT cloud cover at roughly 5-8kft
from diurnal cumulus at all terminals for Friday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 411 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A benign weather pattern will aid in sustained winds will
generally be 12 knots or less and gusts will be less than 16
knots for the rest of this afternoon and tomorrow. No hazardous
conditions are expected over the next 4 days.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for MNZ010>012-018-
     019-025-026-033>038.
WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...LR