588
FXUS63 KDLH 051800
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
100 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for scattered rain showers expand across the Northland
through today into Friday. Light accumulations possible.

- Another system late Saturday through Monday brings another shot at
rain, with a 70-90% chance for a widespread 0.25"+.

- Near normal temperatures continue through the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Early this morning, a few stray rain showers are pushing into north-
central MN along the leading nose of moisture ahead of the next
incoming system. This system, a weak shortwave nestled in a long
trough aloft, is expected to bring a scattered rain shower chance
through the day today, gradually expanding in coverage this
afternoon with diurnal heating. Overnight into Friday we should see
the better synoptic support catch up into the Northland, leading to
some areas of more widespread rain from the Brainerd Lakes into NW
WI. It`s in that area that the highest rainfall totals are expected,
possibly up to 0.25". Elsewhere a couple hundredths to a tenth of an
inch are most likely. There are still pretty large spreads in QPF
ranges for this system, with a tenth or less on the low end, but
over 0.5" on the high end. We do have a little instability floating
around, so we could see some isolated thunderstorms, mostly in the
afternoons today and Friday. Additionally, today will be rinse and
repeat of yesterday`s environment with deep inverted-V soundings
which could lead to some gusty winds along the outflow boundaries of
showers and storms. This could also lead to some dry minimum
relative humidities this afternoon, especially along the
International Border where the chance of any rain is lowest, and RH
could get down into the 20-25% range, leading to some near-critical
fire weather.

We`ll have a brief quiet day Saturday before our next system
arrives. There continues to be good deterministic and global
ensemble agreement for a more wound up low to drop out of Canada
late Saturday into Sunday morning, bringing chances of rain through
Monday. This disturbance is currently making landfall in British
Columbia today, pulling some moisture from a Pacific atmospheric
river and then progged to deepen on the lee side of the Canadian
Rockies. Deterministic guidance shows a pool of higher PWATs across
the south-central CONUS which this system may be able to pull
northward as it arrives, making for some better available moisture
with which to develop widespread precipitation. However there will
likely be some dry air to contend with on the front and back side of
this system and model soundings are not fully saturated, making us a
little skeptical of higher precipitation forecasts until proven
otherwise. Currently looking at about 70-90% chance of a widespread
0.25" or more, with the 90th percentile of QPF at an inch or
greater. However, on the low end the bottom 10th percentile is only
a couple tenths or less, so there is still a lot of variability
remaining. The cut-off low nature of the system could bring at least
a couple days of cloudy conditions, but with NW flow coming in
behind it, some Canadian wildfire smoke could be dragged along as
well.

Longer range ensembles continue to show an increase in PWATs in the
second half of next week into the weekend, so another chance for
rain is on the horizon. In fact, CPC has actually put our area in a
slight risk of heavy precipitation for June 12-18 as a Bermuda High
sets up, allowing for a persistent southeasterly push of moisture
into the central CONUS that weak disturbances coming off the Rockies
may be able to turn into chances for good rains - it will just be a
matter of time to determine if our moisture-parched neck of the
woods will get to benefit.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

VFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the period. Showers
this afternoon will be fairly isolated and confidence on
location and coverage is overall low. Brief visibility
reductions will be possible if a stronger shower or thunderstorm
passes over a terminal. Better rainfall chances arrive overnight
at BRD and DLH, and HIB and HYR to a lesser extent. These
showers are expected to be a bit more persistent and bring MVFR
visibilities for a period. Winds will be light and variable
under 10 knots through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

WSW winds become mostly calm, with a light onshore lake breeze
expected this afternoon and early evening. Winds switch to come out
of the northeast Friday, but should stay on the light side, though
there could be some localized acceleration towards the head of the
lake in the late afternoon/early evening leading to some gusts up to
15 knots and waves of 1-2 feet for the Twin Ports. Sporadic rain
shower/isolated thunderstorm chances are possible today through
Friday, though no severe storms are expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Levens