777
FXUS63 KDLH 050553
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1153 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread snowfall returns Wednesday afternoon through early
  Thursday, with 3-5 inches expected across the Northland.
  Locally higher amounts are possible along the North Shore.

- Gusty westerly winds are possible Thursday into Friday, with
  gusts of 30-40mph possible, especially along both the North
  and South Shores.

- Another chance for snow arrives Saturday, with best chance for
  accumulations over 2 inches along and south of Highway 2.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Surface high pressure will slide over the area tonight, with
only high clouds moving across the Northland. Despite light
winds, overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last
night. This is a result of moderating low level air, as winds
turn to the south and warm advection starts. Lows tonight will
range from the negative teens near the International border to
the single digits above zero across southern portions of the
Northland.

Tomorrow, a shortwave moving across the Rockies from the
Pacific Northwest will tap into Gulf moisture advecting
northward through the Mississippi River Valley. Isentropic lift
ahead of a weakly strengthening surface low will allow for
widespread snowfall to start across southwestern portions of
Northland by mid day and spread northeastward through the
afternoon and evening. Models continue to show drier air at the
surface that will erode through the afternoon, which could limit
accumulations initially. Sounding profiles show a deep,
saturated DGZ by early evening, with lapse rates of 5-7 C/km,
and PW values nearly double average values for early Feb. This
will lead to moderate to heavy snowfall at times, with rates of
0.50in/hr. With southwesterly low level winds and southerly
surface winds, there could be local enhancements along the North
Shore, of up to 7 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for a selection of counties across the area, generally
from the Brainerd Lakes area to counties along both the North
and South Shores. Widespread 3-5 inches is expected with locally
higher amounts, with most of that falling Wednesday evening and
overnight.

As the surface low exits to the east Thursday morning and high
pressure slides southward into the Plains, a tightened pressure
gradient will set up, leading to strong westerly winds across
the Northland. Currently, wind gusts are expected to remain
below wind advisory criteria.

Another system arrives Friday night into Saturday, with another
chance of snowfall across portions of the area. Best snow
chances continue to be along and south of Highway 2, as drier
air across the north, could limit snowfall closer to the
International border.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

High pressure over the region will remain in place early this
morning and will gradually push eastward with time late this
morning and this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected with
light winds gradually veering southeasterly through the day.
Light snow is forecast to move into the terminals this afternoon
and evening. Visibility and ceilings will lower into IFR after
06.00Z and may dip into LIFR before 06.06Z. Conditions should
improve quickly Thursday morning between 06.09Z and 06.15Z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 931 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Evening Update: Issued Small Craft Advisories for portions of
the North and South Shores starting Wednesday evening into early
Thursday as westerly winds increase ahead of approaching low
pressure. Confidence in gale-force wind gusts on Thursday has
increased to 50-65% since the previous update. Therefore, a Gale
Watch has been issued for all nearshore waters, excluding the
head of the lake, starting Thursday morning and continuing
through Thursday night.

Previous Discussion: Winds turn to the south then southeast
Wednesday, as a system moves into the area brining snowfall to
western Lake Superior. As the system exits to the east, winds become
NW with signals of much stronger gusts. Thursday into Friday, could
see sustained winds over 20 knots with gale force gusts. Currently a
30-50% chance of gale force gusts, with a small, non-zero (around 5-
10%) chance of storm force gusts along the South Shore. This could
also lead to heavy freezing spray along the South Shore as waves
build.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-034>038.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST
     Thursday for WIZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
     for LSZ140-141.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night
     for LSZ140>143-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...HA/Unruh