001
FXUS63 KDLH 041008
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
508 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 25% chance for a scattered shower in north-central MN this
afternoon, but otherwise a mostly dry day across the Northland.

- Continued chances for scattered rain chances Thursday-Friday with
only very light rainfall accumulations anticipated. Near normal
temperatures persist.

- Better (50-80%) chance for some appreciable rainfall (quarter
inch or more) late Saturday through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Early this morning, moist air from yesterday`s rains and some extra
cloud condensation nuclei from near-surface smoke are hanging over
NW WI, leading to areas of smog and reduced visibility. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect through 8am. As the sun comes up, any fog/smog
should burn off quickly.

Through Friday, we should stay under fairly zonal flow towards the
base of a long trough over mid-CONUS. This should keep our
temperatures in a fairly normal range. A couple weak upper level
disturbances are progged to wiggle through this flow, popping off
areas of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, which should be at
their strongest in the afternoon/evening with a diurnal boost. Our
first minimal chance (~25%) at showers will be this afternoon mostly
over northern MN. However, with very dry model soundings and
afternoon relative humidities approaching 20-25% (leading to some
near-critical fire weather in the MN Arrowhead), some of these
showers may just end up being virga. There is some decent DCAPE
expected this afternoon with deep inverted-V low level soundings, so
we could see some brief gusty winds come out of any
showers/thunderstorms, with hi-res guidance suggesting some isolated
max gusts of 30-40mph possible. We could see a little resurgence of
some afternoon showers Thursday as well.

A weak upper level shortwave pulling PWATs of 0.75-1" (around
average for this time of year) could bring light rain Friday into
Saturday, with the best chance for the southern half of the CWA.
We`ll probably see some embedded thunderstorms here as well Friday
afternoon. However current ensemble guidance only shows about a 10-
40% chance of 0.25" of rain or more for areas along and south of
Highway 2, and coverage of rain may be spotty.

There continues to be better agreement for a more wound up low to
drop out of the Canadian prairies Sunday-Monday that might bring
better rainfall amounts. Currently looking at about a 50-80% chance
of 0.25" or more, with the highest chances in the MN Arrowhead and
across to the South Shore. It`s worth bearing in mind that the
Canadian Prairie isn`t exactly known as a tropical moisture source,
so its unlikely that this would be a super heavy rain producer, but
the cut-off low nature of the system could bring at least a couple
days of cloudy conditions with scattered areas of light rain.

Longer range ensembles continue to show an increase in PWATs through
next week, so perhaps we`ll continue to see passing chances for
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period for all terminals
except HYR. There, fog and lingering smoke are expected to lead to
LIFR conditions through sunrise when improvement back to VFR should
begin. Breezy west winds expected this afternoon across the
region.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

WSW winds of 5-15 knots through today. Some guidance is suggesting
some locally higher gusts up to 25 knots possible from near Grand
Portage to the SW tip of Isle Royale this afternoon. Mixed
confidence on this, so will watch observations yet today before
making a call on if a Small Craft Advisory is needed there. Winds
should calm for Thursday, with an afternoon onshore light lake
breeze. Winds switch to come out of the northeast Friday, but should
stay on the light side, though there could be some localized
acceleration towards the head of the lake in the late
afternoon/early evening. Sporadic rain shower/isolated thunderstorm
chances are possible Thursday-Friday, though no severe storms are
expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens