843
FXUS63 KDLH 192341
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
641 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions for Sunday, with possible near-critical fire
  weather.

- Next system moves into the Northland Sunday evening, bringing
  rain and some snow, mostly to the eastern portions of the
  Northland through Monday.

- A couple opportunities for rain (30-50% chance) and maybe a
  few thunderstorms continue through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A few rain/snow showers continue across the far northeast
Arrowhead this afternoon as a trough continues to move through
the area. As drier air arrives from the west, the cloud deck
across much of northern MN has scattered and is slowly eroding
from west to east. Those showers in the Arrowhead will continue
through at least mid afternoon, with little to no snow accumulation
as temperatures are in the upper 30s.

Ridging will briefly build into the area tomorrow, with dry
conditions expected through the afternoon. Surface high pressure
will slide east of the Northland tomorrow morning, allowing for
southerly winds to return. Expect a tighter pressure gradient
than today, which is reflected in slightly higher wind speeds.
Should see good mixing, allowing for even drier air to mix to
the surface, and have trended dewpoints down from recent model
guidance. The combination of lower dewpoints, pushing minimum RH
values into the mid 20s for portions of the area, and wind
gusts in the 20-25mph range will allow for near critical fire
weather conditions for locations in north central MN.

A trough will swing across the Plains Sunday, with southerly
winds advecting moisture north from the Gulf. Model guidance is
fairly consistent with the track of the trough and its
associated surface low, with its center remaining to our
southeast. Moisture advection will be primarily to our
southeast, with drier air wrapping around the low across our
western counties. Expect a tight gradient in rainfall, with some
locations in the Brainerd Lakes region northward to the
International Border remaining dry with this system. The best
rain chances will remain across northwest WI where up to 1 inch
of rainfall is possible. Could see snow mix in at times Monday,
both in the Arrowhead and northwest WI. Best chances for snow
accumulation will be along northern portions of the North Shore,
where up to 0.5 inch of snow accumulation is possible early
Monday morning.

As that system moves off to the east, broad troughing takes
shape over the northern Rockies and Plains. A couple waves will
move through the trough, bringing chances for rain to the
Northland through the end of the week. On Tuesday, a shortwave
taps into Pacific moisture as it pivots from the northern Plains
into southern Manitoba. Initially there is low level dry air in
place across the Northland, and expect rainfall will hold off
until Tuesday afternoon. There could be some thunderstorms
across northwestern WI, with around 300J/kg of CAPE aloft.
However, lapse rates are poor and frontogenetic forcing along a
warm front is better across southern WI. For now, will not
include TS in the forecast.

Another wave is possible Thursday into Friday, although there is
disagreement on timing and moisture availability. It does look
like all rain would be expected as temperatures will be 50s for
most of the area Thursday, with lows above freezing outside of
the far northeastern Arrowhead. Next weekend looks dry with
ridging over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. High pressure
tonight will bring clear skies and light winds. Clouds increase
through the day Sunday as a system moves from the Southern
Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Some lower ceilings will
be possible late in the period at BRD and HYR, but will still be
VFR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Light winds back to the southeast tonight, and increase from
the northeast by Sunday afternoon. Rain will spread from
southwest to northeast Sunday night, and end through the day
Monday. Winds and waves may be hazardous to small vessels by
Monday morning as northeasterlies remain elevated.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...HA