548
FXUS63 KDLH 170846
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
346 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers continue today and tonight, with minimal
  accumulations. A light wintry mix is possible early Sunday
  morning in the Arrowhead.

- Below normal temperatures expected this weekend, with highs in
  the 40s to mid 50s each day. A warming trend is expected
  through the upcoming work week.

- Will need frost and/or freeze headlines for portions of the
  Northland Sunday and Monday morning, and possibly further into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Vertically stacked low continues to slowly move eastward this
morning, currently centered over northwest WI. Light rain
showers continue to rotate around the system, pushing onshore
over the northern portion of the North Shore, with activity near
and west of Hwy 53 moving southward. Showers continue today and
tonight as the system slowly pulls away from the area.
Northerly flow will reinforce cooler air over the Northland,
with highs 10-20 degrees below normal this weekend. Overnight
lows will cool into the 30s tonight, with low 30s in the
Arrowhead. For Sunday morning, will be issuing a Freeze Watch
for portions of Lake and Cook counties, and a Frost Advisory for
Southern Cass and Crow Wing counties. If wind speeds trend
downward or skies clear, those products might need expanding.
For Monday night, a more significant area will fall below 30
degrees, and expect more widespread freeze headlines.

Ridging builds into the area early next week, with a push of
drier air southward from central Canada. Trended dewpoints down
Monday and Tuesday afternoons, dropping minimum RH values in
the low 20s for most of northeast MN and portions of northwest
WI. Breezy easterly winds of 10-15kts are expected those
afternoons. Strongest winds will be off the lake over areas
around the Twin Ports, where moisture will also be a bit higher.
Another nearly vertically staked low system will move eastward
across the Mid Mississippi River Valley early next week. The
Northland remains on the northern side of the system, and
latest guidance shows a more dominant dry airmass over the area,
preventing significant moisture advection northward. Will keep
low rain chances across the southern portions of the area,
through mid week, for now. Would not be surprised to see these
chances lowered over the next couple days. Temperatures do warm
through the week, with highs in the 60s for most of the area by
Thursday, and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs continue across the area tonight with
scattered light rain showers rotating under a low pushing
eastward through the region. Occasional light showers will
continue through the forecast period, with any sites not at IFR
falling to IFR around sunrise. Some improvement in cigs back to
MVFR is possible during the afternoon. Breezy northwest winds
overnight will increase with gusts of 20-25kts through the day
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Off and on light rain showers continue through tonight. Winds
through this afternoon will be northwesterly at 10 to 15 knots
with gusts to 20 knots for most of the South Shore, and up to 25
knots for the Twin Ports and up the North Shore where Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect. Winds then diminish a bit
and become easterly Saturday night and Sunday. Winds of 5 to 15
knots will be seen on Sunday, with some gusts to 20 knots along
the South Shore and at the head of the Lake. A period of
stronger easterly winds is expected for next week starting on
Monday which may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
     afternoon for LSZ141>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA