968
FXUS63 KDLH 192008
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers in northwest Wisconsin continue into the
  early evening hours today.

- Dry weather and high temperatures 15 to nearly 25 degrees F
  above normal are expected Sunday and Monday.

- Chances for mainly light rain return Tuesday into Wednesday
  primarily for northeast Minnesota.

- Behind a cold front Tuesday evening, a few flakes will be
  possible in far northern Minnesota with temperatures cooling
  into the 40s for most on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A stalled frontal boundary located over western Lake Superior
and southeastward into East River South Dakota is weakening
this afternoon and will dissipate overnight. The last few
straggling light rain showers along the boundary in northwest
Wisconsin exit the region into later this evening. Rainfall is
forecast to be around or less than a tenth of an inch of extra
rain showers over the next six hours.

Low-level winds just off the surface build overnight as a warmer
airmass enters the region for Sunday. Gusty southwesterly winds
are expected Sunday as high temperatures climb 15 to 25 F above
normal for mid-October. This translates into temperatures in the
low to mid-70s forecast for Sunday afternoon. While wind speeds
decrease into Monday, still very warm and dry weather persists.

Low pressure in the Canadian Rockies Sunday night moves into
the southern Canadian Prairies and deepens Monday. As the system
moves eastward a weak warm front lifts into the Northland Monday
night, but only with very light rainfall chances (10-20%). As
the associated cold front drags eastward Tuesday morning,
rainfall chances increase from west to east in north-central and
northeast Minnesota. The cold front finally moves over the area
and shifts southerly winds to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Cold air advection wrap-around showers keep precip
chances (10-40%) in the the forecast into Wednesday daytime. As
the coldest air down to -4 C is progged to enter the region,
very light snow showers cannot be ruled out for late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning before temperatures begin to
increase. The residual colder airmass is likely (80% chance) to
result in a notable temperature decrease by Wednesday with
forecast high temperatures in the low to mid-40s expected. Zonal
flow returns Wednesday night to increase temperatures on
southerly return flow back into the 50s Thursday and with dry
weather forecast. While weak embedded shortwaves could (40%
chance) rotate through the mean westerly flow late next work
week, no significant weather systems are expected Thursday into
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A stalled weak frontal boundary continues to produce a line of
showers moving northeastward from east-central Minnesota into
western Lake Superior early this afternoon. Post-frontal
trailing IFR to MVFR ceilings over north-central and northeast
Minnesota are forecast to dissipate from 21-02Z this evening.
Overnight fog is possible (40-50%) for those that cutoff from
the near-surface winds, but where that occurs is a bit
uncertain at this point with a low-level jet working into north-
central Minnesota later tonight. Have kept without vis
reductions for terminals tonight, but may be warranted if
confidence increases for any northeast MN terminals. Gusty
southwest winds quickly ramp up after 12-13Z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Low-level winds aloft increase in speed early Sunday morning
over the Upper Midwest. While gusty southwest winds to 25 knots
immediately along the South Shore are likely to be observed
Sunday late morning through evening, forecast thinking keeps the
strongest winds just off the surface of the nearshore waters
with the lake surface temperature around 50 F and warm air
advecting in with the southwest winds. Funneling between the
mainland and Isle Royale though keeps wind gust potential around
25 knots north of Grand Marais along the North Shore and wave
heights to 5 feet. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for that
Grand Marais to Grand Portage zone Sunday late morning to late
evening. Winds shift east northeasterly Monday ahead of an
incoming cold front Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy