600
FXUS63 KDLH 102026
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
326 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southeast winds are forecast Saturday afternoon
  through Sunday night. Wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph are likely.

- A few degrees above normal for Saturday and Sunday, then
  cooler with temps a few degrees either side of normal for the
  remainder of the period.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Sunday night.

- Winds turn northwesterly behind a cold front Sunday night and
  Monday morning and will be gusty again during the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Not much change in the forecast this afternoon. A compact
upper-level trough was propagating southeastward over the
central Great Lakes with a building ridge over the northern
Plains. Surface high pressure over the Dakotas will progress
east-northeast tonight and pass over the Northland. Gusty
northwest winds will quickly subside tonight and become light
and variable. Opted to nudge temperatures colder than the
determinist NBM guidance closer to the NBM10th percentile. The
combination of clear skies, light winds, and plenty of darkness
should allow for efficient radiational cooling. Look for low
temperatures to bottom out in the middle 20s to low 30s. Areas
with 10 or so miles of Lake Superior may stay a bit warmer, in
the middle to upper 30s.

High pressure scoots to the east quickly on Saturday. Sunshine
will persist most of the day although clouds will begin to build
during the afternoon as isentropic ascent develops over western
and central Minnesota. There is a slight chance of a few rain
showers clipping central Minnesota during the early evening with
a better chance of showers later in the night. Southerly winds
will usher in warmer temperatures with highs a 5 to 15 degrees
above normal, in the upper 50s along the North Shore to the
middle 60s over NW WI and central and north-central Minnesota.
Temps may push into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees in some
spots. Winds will strengthen during the afternoon and ample
mixing will allow relative humidities to drop into the 25 to 35
percent range. It won`t take much more drying to get into
critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning may be
needed for portions of central and north-central Minnesota
tomorrow should the forecast or actual conditions trend drier
than currently expected.

Shower chances with a few thunderstorms expand eastward in the
broad isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching cold front on
Sunday. The front will provide additional forcing for ascent
and storm chances may be limited to the immediate cold frontal
zone. That scenario will be similar to what we saw last night
with a few storms or short line segments mixed in among a
broader area of scattered showers. Highs will be warm once again
with temps similar to Saturday. Most areas will see a few
hundredths to around half an inch of rain.

The cold front pushes east of the area Sunday night and Monday
which should provide an abrupt end to rain chances. Temperatures
trend cooler, though they will stay within a few degrees of
normal. Highs Monday will range from around 50 degrees near
International Falls to around 60 degrees near Phillips, WI.
Continued cool for most of the week with the area under
southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. A large blocking cutoff low
is forecast off the Pacific Coast which will create a split flow
pattern over western North America. The northern and southern
streams will merge in the vicinity of the Great Lakes thus there
is a potential for a few rounds of showers in the latter
portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Northwest winds will continue to subside this afternoon. Surface
high pressure will drift over the region tonight. Expect winds
to become light and variable this evening. Temperatures tonight
at INL and HIB should drop below freezing, which should limit
the fog potential there. There is about a 5-10 percent chance of
fog/mist impacting flight categories at INL, HIB, and BRD
tonight. Winds veer southeasterly for Saturday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

North and northwest winds will continue to diminish through
this evening. We pared back the Small Craft Advisory over the
southwest arm since winds and waves were not as strong/high as
expected. The remainder of the advisory looks on track for a 10
PM expiration if not earlier. Gusts may persist from Taconite
Harbor to Grand Portage and it would not surprise me if the
advisory is extended later in time tonight. Winds veer
southeasterly east of the southwest arm and Bayfield Peninsula
while they turn northeasterly in the southwest arm Saturday.
Winds will strengthen as the pressure gradient tightens between
high pressure moving off to the east and developing low pressure
in the northern High Plains. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed again Saturday night through early next week. Rain
showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast Sunday into Monday.
A cold front will advance east across the waters Sunday night
and Monday with winds veering northwesterly in the wake of the
boundary.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140-141-147-148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Huyck