915
FXUS63 KDLH 221135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
535 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow showers along and north of the Iron Range in far
  northern Minnesota this afternoon and evening.

- The next round of snowfall is expected Sunday PM through
  Monday morning when there is a 30-60% chance of 1-3 inches of
  snowfall mainly along and north of U.S. Highway 2.

- There is a 60-80% chance of seasonably colder air setting up
  beginning Thursday of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Light rain showers and low-level stratus producing mist over the
South Shore snowbelt is expected to continue into the early
morning hours today under northerly low-level flow. As winds
back westerly, the precip chances decrease for those snowbelt
locations by later this morning.

Shortwave troughing over northern Manitoba supported by a mid-
level jet streak crossing over the International Border region
of MN/MB/ON dips southwestward this afternoon. Out ahead of this
setup, a skinny 850-500 mb layer of 80-90% relative humidity
advects into the area to create a 2-4 hour time period where
very light snowfall is forecast from along and north of the Iron
Range later today. While flurries are possible as far south as
the US Hwy 2 corridor today, accumulating snowfall (Trace to 0.5
inches) is most likely (20-50% chance) in northern Itasca,
Koochiching and northern St Louis Counties. While there is a
10-20% chance for a few tenths of an inch in northern Cook and
Lake Counties, and this is currently reflected in the forecast,
guidance points towards the better moisture lifting north of
those counties this evening so a trend downward in future
forecasts in the Arrowhead would not be too surprising.

High pressure sets up tonight to create near-normal low temperatures
forecast in the lower-20s areawide and a dry day on Saturday
with highs in the upper-30s for northwest Wisconsin and into the
Brainerd Lakes and and near-freezing along and north of the
Iron Range.

There is high confidence in some part of the Northland seeing
snowfall from a weak shortwave trough Sunday PM and into Monday
morning. The uncertainty in the forecast builds in though from
widely varying placements on the location and depth of that
shortwave trough moving through the Northern U.S. Plains Sunday
morning towards the Upper Midwest. Presently, the forecast
favors a more northern stream solution which keeps a general
1-3" of snowfall (30-60% chance of occurring) along and north of
U.S. Highway 2 in northwest Wisconsin for those snowbelt
locations and across much of far northern Minnesota. This
snowfall is most likely from Sunday evening through Monday
morning. Northerly flow behind a potential Colorado Low lifting
through the Lower Midwest and into the Corn Belt states in this
same time period creates lingering lake-effect regime snow
shower chances for the South Shore snowbelts Monday.

A colder airmass that will be located over the Northern High
Plains early next week pulls eastward into the Upper Midwest by
next Tuesday. Expect high temperatures in the upper-20s and low
temperatures beginning to drop into the teens routinely for the
start of Thanksgiving holiday travel. There is 60-80% confidence
in this colder than normal airmass setting up at least through
the end of next week...coldest on or just after Thanksgiving.
Current forecast low temperatures, dependent upon sky cover,
wind speed and temperatures aloft, could easily (50-70% chance)
begin to drop into the single digits above zero if this trend
continues. The coldest air over Dakotas is most likely to push
as far east as north-central Minnesota in this time period so
warmer temperatures would be expected and are forecast into
northwest Wisconsin for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

A few flurries spreading north to south through northeast
Minnesota creating localized MVFR visibility reductions that are
expected through mid-morning today. IFR stratus lingers through
16-20Z today before lifting to MVFR in the afternoon and through
the evening hours. An approaching weak weather system scraping
the International Border creates a 30-40% chance of light snow
showers after 19Z today first at KINL and then later as far
south as KHIB through 23Z today. Handled this with a TEMPO at
INL and PROB30 at HIB with this latest issuance. The snow
showers are expected to skirt by each terminal within a few
hours so by 00-03Z, most sites are forecast to be free of
impactful snowfall beyond the tip of the Arrowhead.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 213 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Northerly winds decrease in speed through the pre-dawn hours
today, lingering last north of Grand Marais and in the Outer
Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until 6
AM this morning for these last few forecast hours of gusts to 25
knots. Lighter westerly winds are forecast through Saturday
evening. An incoming weather system later Sunday increase
easterly winds over the North Shore though by late Saturday
night and could require another round of Small Craft Advisories.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     LSZ140>145-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy