022
FXUS63 KDLH 181128
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
628 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of smoky conditions continue though the weekend, along
  with near-critical fire weather due dry air and the threat for
  lightning. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for Monday with
  much stronger winds.

- Additional rain showers and thunderstorms are possible late
  Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
  possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A cold front had cleared the Northland early this morning with
showers and thunderstorms pushing well to the south across
central Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. High pressure was
located over the Northern Plains and will start to spread
eastward into the western Great Lakes through the day Saturday
resulting in light northerly winds. This could bring some smoke
back into the Arrowhead, the North Shore, the Twin Ports and
northwest Wisconsin. No significant changes were made to the
forecast with isolated severe storms remaining possible Sunday
night and near-critical to critical fire weather conditions
returning for Monday and Tuesday with gusty northwesterly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A warm front from a low weak low pressure center moving along the
International Border has pushed over the area this morning,
prompting shower and thunderstorm development over far north and
northeast Minnesota. Temperatures and dewpoints in the warm sector
are high and a Heat Advisory remains in effect. As the cold front
from the aforementioned low pressure system pushes over the area,
additional thunderstorm development is expected. With ample
instability and shear, some isolated storms are possible this
afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. Southwesterly flow
has started to improve air quality, pushing the smoke back north. It
is expected that a wind switch back to the northwest behind the
front could drag another round of smoke back into the area for
Saturday, with the worst conditions expected in the MN Arrowhead
where an Air Quality Alert remains in effect.

Saturday should be a fairly dry day with lower dewpoints and
slightly lower temperatures as well. With those drier conditions
however, near-critical fire weather concerns return. Dry afternoon
and RH and breezy northwest winds could cause fires to spread
quickly, especially if there were any new starts from today`s
lightning activity. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for
Saturday, and another may be needed for Sunday, due to the threat of
both dry afternoon relative humidity, gusty southwest winds, and
additional storms that could make for more cloud-to-ground lightning
and brief gusty erratic winds.

Those storms Sunday are expected to arrive fairly late, overnight
into Monday with shower and thunderstorm activity continuing Monday
as a shortwave pushes east over our area. sufficient instability
and shear could once again lead to some isolated to severe storms in
this time period.

Along with and behind that disturbance Monday into Tuesday, very
strong gusty wind from the west to northwest are expected Monday and
Tuesday. This, combined with dropping dewpoints behind the system
could lead to dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for
critical fire weather concerns in this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

High pressure will influence the weather through the period,
keeping the weather quiet with VFR conditions this morning.
Winds will become northerly, and this will bring some wildfire
smoke back over and in the vicinity of most terminals except
perhaps BRD. Predicting onset timing and the lowest potential
visibility is difficult to do with any high confidence, but
visibilities around 1.5 to 2.5 SM up in Canada suggest that we
will probably see some MVFR visibilities at times once smoke
makes its way in this afternoon. Went as low as 5SM for now,
expecting that smoke in the immediate vicinity of wildfires will
disperse some.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Northwesterly winds this morning of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to
20 knots along the North Shore will become light and variable
this afternoon and tonight. Sunday will see southwesterly winds
of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots becoming possible
near the Twin Ports Sunday night. Some smoke will remain
possible this morning but with winds having a more southwesterly
component outside of the western arm, this should help push
smoke further out of western Lake Superior. However, northerly
winds tonight over the Arrowhead may bring more smoke back over
the lake. It doesn`t look as concentrated as before, but may
still lead to some visibility reductions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Dry conditions are expected for Saturday with highs in the 80s.
Afternoon RH values will fall into the 35 to 45% range with
northerly to northwesterly winds at 5 to 10 mph. Some gusts to
15 to 20 mph will be possible along the North Shore and across
northwest Wisconsin. The gusty winds and dry conditions will
lead to near-critical fire weather conditions and a Special
Weather Statement has been issued. Mainly dry conditions will
continue for Sunday with highs in the 80s and lower 90s.
Afternoon RH values will again be in the 35 to 45% range with
southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph across
north-central Minnesota. Near-critical fire weather conditions
will again be in place and another Special Weather Statement
may be needed. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. A few storms may be
strong to severe and bring gusty and erratic winds.

Breezy winds will return for Monday and Tuesday behind a cold
front. Northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 to
30 mph will be possible Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Dry air
behind the front will also lead to dropping dewpoints leading to
critical fire weather concerns both days. A Fire Weather Watch
may be needed.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH