118
FXUS63 KDLH 172332
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
532 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively quiet conditions are expected tonight through
  Wednesday morning.

- Rain chances, perhaps with a mix of light snow, move into the
  region starting Wednesday afternoon and depart Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures expected this weekend with dry
  conditions.

- A more active pattern may develop next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure remains in place over the Northland this
afternoon while a compact area of low pressure spins over the
central Plains. An upper-level low centered over northwest
Nebraska and southwest South Dakota will propagate eastward
toward the MN/IA border tonight. The low pressure system is
somewhat moisture starved and very dry air over the Northland
will advect into the system from the north. As a result, we`re
expecting to remain dry as that system passes by. The northern
gradient of the precipitation will be sharp and will remain to
our south. The high pressure will slowly drift southeastward
into southern Ontario by Wednesday morning and will keep
conditions fairly quiet over our area Tuesday and most of
Wednesday. Very dry air will remain in place with low afternoon
RH values. Nudged temps a little warmer for Tuesday with a blend
of the NBM 75 percentile and the bias-corrected RAP guidance.
Mostly sunny skies and bare trees should allow temps to trend
toward the warmer side of guidance. Highs should be in the upper
30s to middle 40s.

A pattern shift will begin on Wednesday as another upper-level
wave propagates east into Canadian Prairies and Upper Midwest.
Warm air advection and isentropic lift ahead of the system will
arrive over northern Minnesota on Wednesday. Cloud cover will
increase in response to the ascent. There is a signal for rain
showers or perhaps drizzle to develop Wednesday afternoon or
evening. Upper-level support for the wave will be modest with
surface low pressure advancing east across the northern Canadian
Prairies. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across
Minnesota and Wisconsin late Wednesday evening to Thursday
night. Another round of precipitation is forecast with the
frontal passage. Temperatures will be cold enough aloft over
portions of the Arrowhead for a rain/snow mix or a change to all
snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Little to no
accumulation expected, less than a half-inch on grassy surfaces.

Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front and dry air will
return Thursday night and Friday. Northwest flow is expected
aloft Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will trend on the
warmer side of normal. A few weak disturbances may bring
periods of clouds and small precipitation chances. Another
pattern shift may develop early next week. There are indications
of one or more high amplitude waves developing which could
bring a period of more active weather to the Upper Midwest
including the potential for accumulating snow late next week.
CPC`s Week 2 Hazard Outlook includes a Slight Risk of heavy snow
from Nov 26 to Nov 30 from southwest North Dakota to the Texas
Panhandle to northern Upper Michigan which is appears to be in
agreement with WPC cluster analysis and longer range model
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure will keep VFR conditions and light and variable
winds in place through the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 216 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure over Lake Superior tonight and Tuesday will
depart on Wednesday. Winds are expected to be relatively light
and variable with wave heights of 1 to 2 feet. There is a 10 to
30 percent chance of winds stronger than 22 knots near Grand
Portage Wednesday night and early Thursday morning and waves of
1 to 3 feet. Hazardous conditions become likely in the wake of a
cold front Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.
Small Craft Advisories will be needed. As of this afternoon, the
risk of gales around 35 knots is less than 10 percent during
that time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...Huyck