113
FXUS63 KDLH 212347
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
547 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong and gusty north and northwest winds persist along the
  North Shore tonight.

- High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions for Friday
  and Saturday.

- Light snow chances return Sunday night into Monday as a
  clipper moves through the region. Chances for snow are
  expected next week as temperatures dip below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Cold cyclonic flow will persist over the Northland tonight and
Friday. Ample low-level moisture remains in place and upstream
over Ontario and west over the Dakotas. Look for cloudy skies to
linger. Strong cross-terrain flow over the Sawtooth Mountains
and farther southwest toward Silver Bay will keep gusty winds
cranking through the evening. We extended the Wind Advisory for
the lakeshore portions of Lake and Cook counties until 10 PM.
The strongest gusts will likely be found from Taconite Harbor to
Grand Marais.

Lake-effect showers will persist overnight and gradually taper
to flurries and sprinkles. Negligible snow accumulations are
expected, less than half an inch. Temperatures overnight will
bottom out in the middle 20s over central and north-central MN
to the middle 30s over north-central Wisconsin.

Temperatures trend cooler Friday and Saturday, though still
above normal. Ridging aloft will attempt to erode the cloud
cover as high pressure builds at the surface. The low altitude
of the cloud layer may make that difficult. Think there will be
some breaks in the clouds while mostly cloudy skies dominate the
pattern.

Another shortwave trough will move into the region late in the
weekend into Monday and will bring a chance of light snow to the
Northland. As of this afternoon, accumulations look light,
generally less than 2 inches. Moisture with that system will be
limited to what crosses the northern Rockies. There will also be
some terrain and lake enhancement along the North Shore
particularly Monday morning and early afternoon.

A progressive upper-level pattern will continue through next
week with a few additional chances of light snow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to be prevalent tonight, with most
terminals dropping to IFR after a few hours. There is some
inconsistency between observations and timing out lowering
ceilings to IFR, as many models suggest that ceilings should
already be IFR at some places where they are MVFR currently.
Therefore, I delayed the drop to IFR by a few hours this
evening, but expect that IFR ceilings will eventually develop
everywhere. There may be some embedded light precipitation in
the form of light drizzle or flurries this evening as well, but
visibility is expected to remain VFR. Surface high pressure
approaches on Friday, but an inversion aloft is expected to keep
the low clouds and moisture around through the morning and
afternoon for most places. DLH may see some afternoon partial
clearing with downsloping northwest winds. Wind speeds overall
will be breezy this evening, decreasing later tonight into
Friday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 454 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Strong north to northwesterly winds are expected to persist
into tonight, but gradually decreasing in strength. Headlines
have been downgraded by one category with this update, leaving
Gale Warnings from Silver Bay to Grand Portage through midnight
and Small Craft Advisories elsewhere through 6 AM. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed along the North Shore from
Silver Bay to Grand Portage later tonight and possibly into
early morning Friday. Northwest winds persist on Friday and
Friday night with gusts below 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MNZ020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-143>148-
     150.
     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS