858
FXUS63 KDLH 222331
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
531 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few chances for a wintry mix late weekend into next week,
  with a 20-50 percent probability Sunday evening into Monday,
  with light precipitation accumulations.

- With warmer temperatures and a melting snowpack, patchy fog
  will be possible most nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

This afternoon, a broken line of snow showers will continue to push
southeastward from west of Hibbing to Duluth. This activity will put
down a quick, localized dusting of snow for the next few hours,
before drier air arrives. Will carry low pops across to portions of
the South Shore to account for these showers. Temperatures have
warmed above freezing this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine
making it through the mid to high level clouds. This is allowing
for some snow melt, adding to low level moisture and could see
patchy fog tonight as a result.

A weak shortwave will cross the region tomorrow morning, with
some flurries possible across portions of northwest Wisconsin.
In the wake of that shortwave, low level winds turn to the west
and southwest, with warm advection starts. A stronger clipper
dives southeastward into the Northland Sunday night. Drier mid
level air will keep precipitation amounts on the very light
side, with greatest precipitation chances across the Arrowhead.
Guidance continues to show high probabilities that surface
temperatures will be around freezing by early Monday morning,
plus or minus a few degrees of 32F. A warm nose aloft will
allow for melting, with a wintry mix at the surface as
temperatures hover around freezing. Precipitation totals have
trended downward this afternoon, and precip type will hinge on
the warm layer aloft. Right now, best chances for snow or ice
accumulations are in the Arrowhead and up the North Shore, where
only a light dusting of snow and a light glaze of ice is
possible.

As the shortwave exits to the east early Monday, another will arrive
Monday afternoon from the west. Better precipitation chances
will be confined to the southern portions of the forecast area.
With temperatures above freezing across most of the area, expect
light rain to be the main precip type, except for locations
near the Canadian border where a light rain/snow mix is
possible. Again, total accumulations are expected to be very
light.

Through the end of the week, there will be several more
opportunities for mixed precipitation. Precipitation chances
remain conservative at 20-40% with generally light accumulation
amounts. Temperatures in this period will continue to run above
normal, with highs in the mid to upper 30s, with lower 40s in
northwest Wisconsin, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions are prevalent at all terminals except HIB, likely
due to local effects. HIB ceiling is expected to lift within
the next hour. An inversion will set up overnight tonight ahead
of some warm air advection, which will lead to some chances for
fog in the morning when air aloft warms before the surface does.
Fog should clear as temperatures rise later in the morning.
Precipitation chances increase (about 40%) near INL towards the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Winds continue to decrease tonight and back to south along the
South Shore and to easterly along the North Shore. Winds become
southerly for all areas through the day Sunday at or lower than
15 knots. Expect winds to increase Sunday night out of the
southwest, 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Conditions may
become hazardous for small craft.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...HA