243
FXUS63 KDLH 120659
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
159 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler fall weather moves in today, then continues through
  the next week.

- Patchy frost is possible late Sunday night into early Monday
  morning across the typically colder locations of the
  Northland.

- Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday into
  early Tuesday, bringing a potential for heavy rainfall and
  soaking conditions. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The cold front that brought showers and thunderstorms to the
Northland Friday evening is currently advancing out of the
forecast area. Early this morning, only a few lingering showers
remain behind the boundary. Winds are gradually turning out of
the northwest during the overnight hours, bringing gusts in the
15 to 20 mph range. For today, expect a cooler and breezy day as
high temperatures reach only into the 60s to lower 70s.
Northwest winds will increase by mid morning, with gusts rising
into the 20 to 25 mph range through the afternoon. Cyclonic flow
aloft will bring some stratocumulus clouds to the Borderlands,
while most other areas will see only passing high clouds.

Quiet and even cooler conditions settle in for Sunday as
surface high pressure slides in to settle over Minnesota
overnight. High temperatures on Sunday will generally stay in
the 60s under mostly sunny skies. As winds become light and
variable Sunday night under clear skies, temperatures will drop
significantly. It`s not the best night for radiational cooling,
but I anticipate overnight lows cooler than the median of
guidance. Low temps should fall into the mid 30s to low 40s. The
typical cold spots could drop into the low 30s, which may
support the development of patchy frost by early Monday morning.


A strong upper low pressure system moves from the northern
Plains across southern Canada Monday through Tuesday of next
week. This system will tap into a plume of rich moisture,
spreading another round of widespread rain and scattered
thunderstorms across the region from west to east starting
Monday afternoon and continues Monday night. There is a risk for
moderate to heavy soaking rainfall, with a 60 to 80 percent
probability of getting at least a half inch of rain by 7 AM
Tuesday. Severe weather is not anticipated. Showers will linger
into Tuesday before the system departs to the east.

High pressure builds into the region beginning Tuesday night
and Wednesday, allowing cooler air to filter into the Northland.
High temperatures through the middle of the week will remain
comfortably in the 60s with overnight lows in the 40s. A
generally quiet weather pattern takes hold for Thursday and
Friday, though there are some chances for showers and isolated
storms. Temperatures will begin to slowly warm back into the 70s
for Friday and Saturday as southerly return flow sets up ahead
of the next potential system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A cold front is moving through the region tonight with showers
and isolated thunderstorms east of it. Showers are lingering
over several of the terminals, but will continue to slide east
for the next few hours. An area of MVFR ceilings will also
linger behind the cold front for a few hours before conditions
return to VFR. Winds will gradually turn northwest overnight,
then become gusty during the daytime on Saturday. Winds will
gust around 20 knots for several hours for the late morning and
afternoon hours, then drop back below 10 knots around 00z.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of western
Lake Superior through Saturday morning. Winds are shifting to
the west and northwest behind a cold front, with gusts of 20 to
30 knots expected through Saturday afternoon. Conditions will
improve Sunday as high pressure moves into the area, producing
diminishing winds and subsiding waves. However, hazardous
conditions are expected to return for Monday and Tuesday as a
strong low pressure system approaches, bringing a 40 to 70
percent chance for gale force wind gusts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast
period. A cooler and less humid airmass moves in today, with
minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 35 to 50
percent range and breezy northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 mph.
Similar humidity levels are expected on Sunday, but with lighter
winds. A widespread wetting rain is increasingly likely across
the region from Monday into Tuesday as a strong low pressure
system moves through.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     147-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ144>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
FIRE WEATHER...LE