210
FXUS63 KDLH 291127
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
627 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and humid today with Heat Advisories in effect for most
  of the Northland

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday through Friday. Some
  strong to severe storms will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure is being shunted off to the southeast today.
This will allow for southwesterly winds to stream back into the area
promoting increased temperatures and dewpoints. To account for this
warmer weather we have issued a Heat Advisory for most of the
Northland. Precipitation chances today remain low. There remains
poor agreement among guidance but given the weakly forced
environment plus the smoke aloft, storm generation may be hard to
come by.

Tomorrow:

The upper level ridge that has been over the region begins to break
down early tomorrow morning as a shortwave trough advances in from
the west. This initial wave may lead to a few showers and storms
across our the International Border in the early morning hours.
Through the day a deeper trough will be advancing across the
Northern Plains with it`s attendant cold front marching east. These
features are set to move through the Northland late Thursday into
Friday which is when we have our highest chances for precipitation
and storms. Severe threat remains marginal as highlighted by the
SPC. Plenty of instability (2000 J/kg) to work with but bulk shear
may be lacking for severe storms to be sustained. Steep low level
lapse rates paired with high DCAPE seems to favor an environment for
damaging winds for any strong storms that do manage to develop.
Still a lot of spread in the high res guidance, particularly with
the storm evolution in the morning prior to the onset of the strong
trough.

Friday/Weekend:

Rainfall chances will then linger into Friday before drying out for
the weekend. The jet stream will then shift north of the border for
the weekend and into next week, keeping the main storm track to our
north. There will be limited chances for precipitation, but nothing
significant at this point. Temperatures cool into the 70s and low
80s for Friday and Saturday before slowly warming heading into the
new week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Surface high pressure over Lake Superior will be moving to the SE
today with southwesterly winds returning to the Northland. A few
pockets of fog this morning will quickly erode after day break. The
rest of the day will see VFR conditions with hazy skies aloft from
smoke. Radar/satellite show a tiny cluster of storms over Lake of
the Woods this morning, that could briefly impact INL if they manage
to hold together. Afterwards, there is a chance for storms to return
early tomorrow morning, however confidence is on the low side as
model guidance continues to oscillate.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Surface high pressure is retreating to the southeast which will
allow fog to disperse across the Lake today. Winds will still be
variable maxing out around 10 knots through the day. Thursday will
see storm chances return and linger into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Another warm day with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and
low 90s. Surface high pressure retreats to the southeast allowing
for light southwest winds to return to the Northland. Min RHs could
drop into the 30s around the Brainerd Lakes Region with the rest of
the area staying in the 40s. Storms return Thursday and linger into
Friday, some may be strong to severe.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038.
WI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001>003-006>008.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ141>147-
     150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt/BJH
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt
FIRE WEATHER...Britt