373
FXUS63 KDLH 171137
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm temperatures for today with continuing chances for
  showers and isolated thunderstorms as the cold front moves
  through the Northland.

- Cool with some sunshine this weekend. Highs only in the 50s
  Sunday.

- Periodic chances for rainfall will be seen through the
  remainder of the forecast period with overall cooling
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Southerly flow ahead of a low pressure system that has been
moving north through the Great Plains and into Manitoba this
morning is helping to generate showers which keep moving across
the Northland. Rainfall amounts so far have been highest around
International Falls where approximately an inch and a half has
fallen so far. Amounts taper off to the southeast, but there has
been precipitation nearly everywhere in the last 18 to 24
hours. This low pressure system will continue to move northeast
today and tonight, dragging a cold front across the forecast
area this afternoon and tonight. Ahead of it we should continue
to get intermittent showers, with even a few thunderstorms
remaining possible. There is not a lot of instability so we do
not expect any strong storms, but people may hear some rumbles
of thunder. Today should be the warmest day for awhile with the
warm sector bringing mid 60s to low 70s for highs this
afternoon. As the system continues northeast, we will have
westerly winds moving in along with some drier air for Saturday.
There may be enough instability during the afternoon and
evening hours to generate some showers, mainly over northwest
Wisconsin. The steep mid level lapse rates will extend into
Minnesota, but there is probably too much dry air to generate
showers. A ridge of high pressure builds into the area for
Sunday, and we can expect sunshine, even if the high
temperatures only get into the 50s.

Intermittent rain chances return Monday through Tuesday as a
strong upper trough/upper low move along the International
Border and into the upper Great Lakes. The models still have a
lot of variance between them in the track and strength of this
system as it moves across this area. Chances for showers will
then linger into midweek with this system being slow to clear
out and the potential for another clipper behind it.
Temperatures will climb back into the 50s to low 60s on Monday
before cooling into the 40s and 50s heading into midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Southerly flow across the region continues to produce warm air
advection and scattered rain showers with a mixture of VFR to
MVFR conditions. The low level jet has produced low level wind
shear concerns this morning for KHYR for a few more hours. A
cold front will move across the terminals from west to east
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Ahead of the front,
the mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions along with chances for
showers and isolated storms to continue. Behind the cold front
winds will become westerly with conditions becoming VFR for all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Southeast to southerly winds will continue today at around 5 to
15 knots. A cold front will move across western Lake Superior
this afternoon and evening and turn winds southwesterly at 10 to
20 knots with gusts to 25 knots this afternoon and night before
diminishing into early Saturday. These winds will generate
waves of 3 to 5 feet along the North Shore north of Grand
Marais. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the
nearshore waters for today and tonight. Winds will remain
westerly for Saturday at around 10 to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-141>147-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT
     Saturday for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE