


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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061 FXUS63 KDLH 092050 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds with gusts of 15 to 25 mph (up to 35 mph in central MN including the Brainerd area) continue into this evening and diminish tonight. - Scattered rain showers are expected late afternoon through tonight ahead of a cold front. There is a 10-20 percent chance of a few thunderstorms. - Temperatures trend a little cooler Friday and then warm up Saturday and Sunday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Sunday night. - Temps trend cooler late next week with rain chances returning Wednesday or Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching cool front will broaden the area of cloud cover over northern Minnesota through this evening. Showers are still expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward tonight. Radar echoes developed over the past half hour east of Fargo and north of International Falls per regional radar mosaics. CAMs appeared to be consistently a little slow with the onset of precipitation. That trend continues with the latest RAP/HRRR runs. The 18Z HRRR at 22Z appears to be similar to what we`re seeing in the mosaics. Look for precipitation to fill in over the next few hours. A compact and deep upper-level trough with a closed 300 mb low at the center will propagate southeastward tonight. The cold front and weak surface low will move into Minnesota around 10.00Z and transit the Northland overnight into Friday morning. The rapid progression of the trough and surface features will limit the precipitation chances. Ridging aloft will begin to develop Friday morning over northern Minnesota and adjacent areas of Manitoba and Ontario. The surge of cold air behind the front will be short lived. Temps will be in the middle and upper 50s over most of the Northland with a narrow ribbon of low 60s from near Brainerd east into the St. Croix River Valley. Winds may be gusty again, mainly during the morning hours, due to deep boundary layer mixing in the cold air advection behind the front. Southerly winds will return for Saturday which will usher in slightly warmer temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. The upper- level ridge will propagate eastward across the Upper Midwest through Sunday. Rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms return to the picture for Sunday and Sunday night due to isentropic lift over Minnesota. Farther west a seasonably strong low pressure system will move northeastward over western North Dakota into the Canadian Prairies. That system will push another cold front across the Northland Sunday night and Monday. While the potential for widespread "warm sector" showers will be present, any thunderstorm chances will likely need the additional forcing for ascent of the cold front. Temperatures trend a little cooler Monday through next Thursday, although pretty close to normal. Highs will be in the low to upper 50s. While the forecast becomes a bit muddled for the second half of next week, cluster analysis points to rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Clouds over western MN to NW Ontario will continue to build eastward this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers are forecast to develop this afternoon and advance eastward through the evening. A cold front over the Dakotas will move east through the Northland late tonight and early Friday morning. Winds will be gusty this afternoon from the south ahead of the front and will veer northwesterly for Friday. LLWS will be a concern tonight as a strong southwesterly low-level jet is forecast. Strong northwest winds aloft will follow behind the cold front. As of this afternoon forecast soundings suggest a well-mixed boundary layer due to cool air advection Friday which should result in sustained winds of 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts which would reduce the risk of LLWS. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Southerly winds over western Lake Superior and northeast winds over the southwest arm of Lake Superior late this afternoon will veer south-southwesterly tonight and will strengthen. Winds and waves will become hazardous to smaller vessels near Grand Portage initially and then along the South Shore. A cold front will propagate east over the waters tonight and Friday morning which will veer winds northwesterly. There may be a 2 to 6 hour lull in the stronger wind gusts as the front moves through. Winds will strengthen again behind the front and will become hazardous for small craft. There is a 30% chance of gales over western Lake Superior during the day Friday. We added the North Shore waters to the Small Craft Advisory for 4 AM to 4 PM Friday. We also extended the existing advisory until 11.03Z (10 PM Friday evening). The period of strong winds will be relatively short lived as high pressure will build into the region quickly Friday evening. Gusty winds return Sunday and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-145>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday for LSZ141>144. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...Huyck MARINE...Huyck