019
FXUS63 KDLH 111124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
624 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through most of today with showers and storms
  possible starting in the evening. An isolated strong storm
  cannot be ruled out.

- Showers and storms chances continue for Tuesday with a brief
  reprieve on Wednesday before chances ramp up again to round
  out the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

A quiet start to the work week with zonal flow aloft and
surface high pressure crossing the Midwest through the day.
Areas of fog this morning will quickly erode shortly after
sunrise. Highs will be in the low 80s with some diurnally driven
cumulus developing through the day. Smoke from the Canadian
Wildfires will envelope the region today leading to unhealthy
air quality. This smoke is expected to slowly disperse west to
east through Monday.

This evening:

An upper level trough will move across the Northern Plains and
into the Northland this evening pushing a cold front along at
the surface. A fetch of low level moisture streams out ahead of
the frontal boundary and will allow for showers and a few storms
to form. Bulk shear will be sufficient to aide in overall storm
growth and maintenance but instability will be the limiting
factor for keeping storms in check. Sounding profiles showcase a
skinny CAPE profile and mid level lapse rates are of the weaker
variety around 6C/km. Some small hail can`t be ruled out but
there will be better chances for damaging winds as the storms
move across. That being said, severe chances are still on the
low side, SPC has a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) draped
across Cass and north through northwest St. Louis County.

Tuesday:

There will be two areas that still have chances (20-40%) of
additional rain. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with some diurnal
heating trends will promote scattered showers across northern MN.
Across NW WI the cold front will continue to move east and provide
additional lift for some rain chances as well. Both areas will
still have some weak instability to work with so a few rumbles
of thunder will be possible. No severe weather is expected at
this time. Much cooler air will move in from the NW with highs
in northern MN down into the low 70s for the day. NW WI will
still be in the upper 70s as the cold front works east.

The rest of the Work Week:

Quiet weather on Wednesday as high pressure will be over the region.
Northwesterly flow aloft may reintroduce some smoke back into the
forecast. Rain chances return Thursday morning as a shortwave ejects
out of the Northern Plains. Sounding profiles are similar to what we
will see for this evening. Skinny CAPE with some adequate shear
for storm organization. This set up would suggest some small
hail and damaging winds may be possible. The pattern looks to
remain active through Friday as a vertically stacked low moves
across central Manitoba into Ontario. An elongated boundary will
pivot through the region and southerly flow out ahead of the
boundary will destabilize the environment. Better instability
will build in for Friday which may see a higher severe risk if
model trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Patchy fog this morning will erode shortly after sunrise. However,
there may still be visibility restrictions through the day due to
wildfire smoke entering from the west. Later this evening a cold
front will march west to east bringing a line of showers and some
storms through the end of the TAF period. Strong winds may accompany
these storms as the pass through.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Southwest winds today around 5 to 10 knots. Winds will increase
tonight with a few gusts upwards of 20 kts. This may lead to some
waves building across portions of the North Shore. A Small Craft
Advisory may be needed. Additionally, a cold front enter from the
west tonight and may lead to thunderstorms across the Lake. Winds
will turn more westerly on Tuesday but will still remain elevated
with speeds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 20 kts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt