872
FXUS63 KDLH 261759
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional rain mainly in northwest Wisconsin today. Localized
  flooding is possible with 1-2" of rain, mainly around Price
  County.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday night
  through Sunday evening.

- Hot and humid weather is expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A nice break from the rain is happening this morning. Cloudy
skies persist in northwest Wisconsin and into east-central
Minnesota with some areas of fog. There are patches of clear
skies further north.

Rain Today and Tonight:

Another round of rain is expected today as an upper-level trough
passes through and deepens a low pressure system over Wisconsin
through tonight. There are pretty consistent signals that the
heaviest rainfall amounts over our region will be in northwest
Wisconsin, particularly over and in the vicinity of Price
county. Ensemble amounts vary a little bit, but generally hover
in the 1-2" range with some higher amounts to 3" possible
locally. Flooding chances are on the low end given the nice
break from rain we had from the first round. Similar to the
first round, this will be largely a steady rain, allowing enough
time in most places for efficient-enough runoff. Still,
persistent areas of rain could lead to some localized flooding
(~10-20% chance). All-in-all, it should be another rainy day
with largely minimal impacts.

On the Minnesota side, showers are possible, but are not
expected to last all day, nor amount to appreciable rainfall
amounts (maybe up to a quarter inch at best). Temperatures
should be warmer (70s) in northern Minnesota with some filtered
sunshine possible.

A nice break in the action with some afternoon sunshine is in
the forecast for Friday with brief high pressure, upper-level
ridging, and flow becoming southerly and starting a warming
trend that`s expected into the weekend.

Hot/Humid this weekend with strong to severe thunderstorms
possible:

The forecast is still pretty well on track for some strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop this weekend with southerly flow
pumping in plenty of warm and moist air. An initial short wave
and a strengthening low-level jet across the Dakotas Friday
evening/night may prompt an MCS to develop, and if it does, it
may move its way east into our region by late Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Some severe storms (containing low-end
severe wind/hail) will be possible (~5% chance). It looks like
these will largely fall apart as they move into our region
during the morning.

As we go into Saturday afternoon, instability will be on the
increase (MUCAPE rising to ~2-3 kJ/kg into late Saturday
afternoon/night) with ~30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear. The question
will be how soon a cap can bust for storms to develop given the
potential for morning convection, which may keep things stable
perhaps well into the afternoon. The best synoptic forcing may
be displaced over the Dakotas/Minnesota border with a weak
occluded front may be. But with all that said, if the cap can be
busted, soundings initially look favorable for all hazards;
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats, but with a
tornado or two not out of the question. As is often the case,
this could start with some discrete convection, then become a
bit more organized into Saturday evening/night, but there`s
still a lot of unknowns about how everything will come together.

On Sunday, a cold front passing through will probably trigger
another round of thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, with
northwest Wisconsin being the most likely place to be affected.
With the front passing through, this looks like it would be
mostly a hail/wind situation than anything else, but it`s really
too soon to be very precise about the nitty-gritty details.

With the storm talk out of the way, the southerly flow is still
expected to bring hot and humid temperatures to the Northland
both Saturday and Sunday. At this point, it`s looking slightly
less favorable that widespread Heat Advisories will be needed,
with some of that uncertainty owing to aforementioned storm
potential, which could cool things off a bit. Still, heat
indices approaching or hitting 90 degrees with highs in the 80s
and dew points in the 60s to low 70s will lead to some
unpleasant conditions for those sensitive to or generally
disliking hot weather.

Early next week:

We had previously been advertising mainly quiet weather, but at
least on Monday, there is potential for a trough to pass through
with west to northwest flow. This could lead to some
wraparound-style showers and perhaps storms (most likely non-
severe). Tuesday may be quieter, but then perhaps a cold front
going into Wednesday to keep things interesting. In general,
temperatures are looking to be around to a bit above average
early to mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Aviation conditions will continue to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR
ceilings at BRD/HYR/DLH/HIB as an upper level trough passes
overhead. Occasional breaks in the clouds to VFR conditions
possible. Rain is moving in currently, and will affect all
terminals, though lowest confidence is at INL as the system
could pass to its south. For now have left rain mention out of
TAF. East wind 10-15G20-25KT through 4-6Z, becoming NE at 5KT or
less thereafter. Rain ends at terminals around the same time.
DLH/HYR still showing 30-50% chance of fog with visibilities
less than 1 mile overnight. Tomorrow, skies will be starting to
clear from N to S toward the end of the TAF period, with wind at
or around 5KT from the NE.



&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Expect east-northeast winds to steadily increase this morning
and settle to gusts in the 20-25 kt range late this morning
through early this evening. Wave heights up to 4 ft are expected
as well. Small Craft Advisories have been issued from Taconite
Harbor into the Twin Ports and along the South Shore. There may
be some places that fall just short of Small Craft Advisory
conditions (perhaps with winds topping out around 20 kt and
waves just below 4 ft), but most places should see the 25 kt
wind gusts and waves to around 4 ft at times. Expect some rain
this afternoon and evening as well. There is a 20-40% chance for
some areas of dense fog later tonight into early Friday
morning along the South Shore into the Twin Ports. Winds
gradually become light on Friday from the northeast, becoming
variable Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ142>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...LR
MARINE...JDS