885
FXUS63 KDLH 212030
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
230 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues into early next week with Sat-Wed
  highs 5-15F above normal for this time of year. Lows Mon-Tue
  will be 20-30F above normal.

- Melting snowpack combined with warm air advection may lead to
  foggy conditions late weekend into next week.

- A few chances for a wintry mix late weekend into next week,
  with a 30-60 percent probability Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Current Conditions:

Surface high pressure has moved well off to our SE and now resides
over MO. Southwesterly flow at the surface is promoting warm air
advection with high temps this afternoon hovering around the
mid 20s. An upper level trough moving into Ontario is bringing
some moisture from the Pacific in the way of some mid to high
level clouds.

Tonight/Saturday:

Overnight mid level lapse rates steepen to 6C/km as the nose of an
upper level jet sinks in from Manitoba. With the pacific moisture in
play this could generate some light snow across northern MN. At this
time there is not strong agreement among the CAMs so we have limited
the chances to 20%. Accumulations would be negligible

The rest of Saturday looks to be largely uneventful. Southwesterly
surface winds continue with WAA aloft showing our 850 temps nudging
closer to above freezing. Our overall afternoon temps will be above
freezing with some areas climbing into the mid 30s. Still a lot
of questions as to what cloud cover may look like due to melting
snow.

Sunday:

Models continue to struggle with the precipitation chances
associated with a clipper for Sunday. More than a handful of
ensemble members keep the region dry. But given that the
divergent sector of an upper level jet will be over the
Northland we are leaning towards favoring some flavor of
precipitation. That being said, QPF totals are on the low side.
A stout warm nose in the lower levels will lead to mixed
precipitation types with rain favored during the day and snow
after sunset. There has been a slight uptick in freezing rain
potential for northern MN as ensembles show a 20-40% chance of
below freezing temperatures by Monday morning. If ice was to
develop it would likely be less than or equal to 0.01 inches.

We are still monitoring the potential for some low stratus or fog to
develop Sunday and linger into early next week. Surface
temperatures are expected to be 10-15F above normal placing
them firmly in the above freezing category. Sublimation of our
snow pack should lead to an excess of water vapor being trapped
near the surface as a stout warm nose will be over the region.
Models struggle mightily with low level moisture and these
scenarios but high res probabilities are at least hinting at
low ceilings as early as Saturday with the best chances on
Sunday.

Early Next Week:

Warm temperatures persist through the first half of the week with
highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s. If we do manage to get some
more sunny days mixed in there than the pine tree effect over our
region could see our temperatures drastically over achieve due
to the higher sun angle.

Cloud cover will remain a challenge as models show a wide
variance in moisture content and upper level patterns. Initially
it looks like mid level dry air moves in behind the clipper
system Monday morning. But with a saturated low levels we may
see some drizzle mixed in with fog. Dreary conditions look to
persist through the day with highs in the lower 40s. Beyond
Monday multiple shortwaves look to weave through the pattern
maintaining low PoPs of 20-30% through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions currently in place across the Northland with some mid
and high clouds moving overhead. Gusty southwesterly winds will
continue through the afternoon before tapering off after sunset.
Clouds may increase overnight across northern MN with a 30% chance
of seeing some snow showers at INL by the morning hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 223 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Southwest winds will continue with gusts of 25 to around 30 knots.
There is a 30% chance for gale force gusts this afternoon and early
evening along the North Shore. Waves will build through the day
peaking along the North Shore around 8 feet from Grand Portage to
Taconite Harbor late afternoon into the evening. Some freezing spray
will also occur with the higher waves. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect this afternoon into tonight. West or southwest winds
tonight will decrease overnight into Saturday. Winds will decrease
further Saturday night.

The strong southwest winds have lead to some ice shifting.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140>146-
     148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt