709
FXUS63 KDLH 230513
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1113 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few chances for a wintry mix late weekend into next week,
  with a 20-50 percent probability Sunday evening into Monday,
  with light precipitation accumulations.

- With warmer temperatures and a melting snowpack, patchy fog
  will be possible most nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

This afternoon, a broken line of snow showers will continue to push
southeastward from west of Hibbing to Duluth. This activity will put
down a quick, localized dusting of snow for the next few hours,
before drier air arrives. Will carry low pops across to portions of
the South Shore to account for these showers. Temperatures have
warmed above freezing this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine
making it through the mid to high level clouds. This is allowing
for some snow melt, adding to low level moisture and could see
patchy fog tonight as a result.

A weak shortwave will cross the region tomorrow morning, with
some flurries possible across portions of northwest Wisconsin.
In the wake of that shortwave, low level winds turn to the west
and southwest, with warm advection starts. A stronger clipper
dives southeastward into the Northland Sunday night. Drier mid
level air will keep precipitation amounts on the very light
side, with greatest precipitation chances across the Arrowhead.
Guidance continues to show high probabilities that surface
temperatures will be around freezing by early Monday morning,
plus or minus a few degrees of 32F. A warm nose aloft will
allow for melting, with a wintry mix at the surface as
temperatures hover around freezing. Precipitation totals have
trended downward this afternoon, and precip type will hinge on
the warm layer aloft. Right now, best chances for snow or ice
accumulations are in the Arrowhead and up the North Shore, where
only a light dusting of snow and a light glaze of ice is
possible.

As the shortwave exits to the east early Monday, another will arrive
Monday afternoon from the west. Better precipitation chances
will be confined to the southern portions of the forecast area.
With temperatures above freezing across most of the area, expect
light rain to be the main precip type, except for locations
near the Canadian border where a light rain/snow mix is
possible. Again, total accumulations are expected to be very
light.

Through the end of the week, there will be several more
opportunities for mixed precipitation. Precipitation chances
remain conservative at 20-40% with generally light accumulation
amounts. Temperatures in this period will continue to run above
normal, with highs in the mid to upper 30s, with lower 40s in
northwest Wisconsin, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Warm air begins to advect into the region tonight and brings with it
fog chances after 09Z tonight. Fog and IFR ceilings could last through
18Z tomorrow, even longer in the Arrowhead. After morning fog/mist
burns off, a brief period of improved conditions in the early afternoon
gives way to another round of rain/snow/mix chances after 21Z and lasting
into the evening hours. These late TAF period precip chances were handled
with shower and vicinity shower mentions for now. Southwesterly winds
increase after 03Z Monday as a low level jet moves overhead.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 941 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Winds continue to decrease tonight and back to south along the
South Shore and to easterly along the North Shore. Winds become
southerly for all areas through the day Sunday at or lower than
15 knots. Expect winds to increase Sunday night out of the
southwest, 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts. Small Craft
Advisories are now in effect through Monday afternoon as those
southwesterly winds linger into the early afternoon.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM CST Monday for
     LSZ140>146-148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...HA