510
FXUS63 KDLH 062338
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
638 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog tonight into Saturday morning on and near Lake Superior.

- Widespread rainfall Saturday night into Sunday with amounts
  between one quarter and three quarters of a inch for most
  areas.

- Warming up mid to late next week with high temperatures in
  the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Smoke is expected to finally diminish near the International
Border by evening, and the Air Quality Alert for portions of
northeast Minnesota will expire at 700pm this evening.
Otherwise, rain showers along a convergence zone from Lake
Mille Lacs into northwest Wisconsin will continue this afternoon
and into the evening, with daytime heating driven scattered
rain showers and thunderstorms elsewhere across northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Severe weather is not
expected.

Fog is likely to expand across western Lake Superior and adjacent
coastal areas tonight into Saturday morning with ample moisture
added to the marine layer from precipitation today and with light
winds expected. Most guidance shows visibility dropping across
the lake and adjacent land areas.

For this weekend, the main story will be rainfall potential.
Precipitable water will slowly increase through the day on Saturday,
and with daytime heating scattered rain showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop across most of the Northland. With
rather modest buoyancy and weak deep layer shear, severe
weather is not expected. More widespread precipitation is
forecast Saturday night into early Sunday morning as a cold
front and strong shortwave propagate across northeast Minnesota
and northwest Wisconsin. Widespread, and very much beneficial,
rainfall amounts of one quarter to three quarters of an inch
are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning. Higher amounts
at this time are limited by the front and wave propagating
rather quickly through the area.

On Sunday, the broad upper level low centers itself over the
Northland with embedded waves pinwheeling around its cyclonic
flow. Thus, Sunday will be cooler with high temperatures
generally in the 60s with continued scattered rain showers
through the day and night, with a few thunderstorms as well
given the cool temperatures aloft. As this upper level low
begins to propagate to the east, one final wave in its cyclonic
flow will move through on Monday, continuing the scattered rain
shower and thunderstorm coverage. With limited buoyancy and
shear, severe weather is not expected.

Mid to late next week at least low amplitude ridging builds across
the Upper Midwest, favoring a warm up in temperatures into the
upper 70s and lower 80s. The next best chance for thunderstorms
is Thursday into Friday in association with a likely warm front
across the Northland extending from low pressure across the
Northern Plains. With increasing moisture and better buoyancy,
will have to watch the severe thunderstorm potential for this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The last few diurnal rain showers and smoke over the Borderlands
dissipates over the next few hours with dry conditions very
likely overnight. Marine fog off the Big Lake may lead to
limited areal coverage reductions in visibility for those
terminals along and near the shorelines. At this point the only
categorical reduction in the TAFs is DLH, but HIB could see
typical radiational fog too further inland. Scattered rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms reform again Saturday
afternoon to create some PROB30 and TEMPO mentions at most TAF
sites in the Northland tomorrow after 20Z. Expecting a line of
thunderstorms to move from west to east across the Northland
from 23Z Saturday to 06Z Sunday which may bring gusty and
erratic winds, small hail and localized heavy rainfall. Future
TAF issuances will likely need some further storm mentions for
this line of expected general thunderstorms late Saturday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Fog is expected to expand across western Lake Superior this
evening into Saturday morning, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed. Light winds are expected this evening into Saturday
morning with waves of 1 foot or less. East to northeast winds
around 10 kts will develop through the day on Saturday.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will
become numerous Saturday night into Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PA
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...PA