831
FXUS63 KDLH 121150
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
550 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning, for
  wind chills near or below -30F across northern MN. Another
  Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed again tonight into
  Thursday morning.

- Temperatures, for both highs and lows, will continue to run 15
  to 20 degrees below normal for most days through early next
  week.

- Best snow chances this forecast period occur Friday into
  Saturday, with a 50-70% of measurable snow south of the Iron
  Range in Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin. Up to 3-4
  inches possible across portions of northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Arctic high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
over the Northland for another day, keeping most of the area dry
and cold. High temperatures today will remain in the single
digits to lower teens. The area will be on the northern fringes
of a large weather system moving through the Lower Mississippi
River Valley. This will lead to an increase in cloud cover by
this afternoon, with low snow chances across far southeastern
counties this afternoon and evening. Snowfall amounts will be
around 0.50 inch or less.

Drier air quickly returns to the area as a thermal trough
rotates across the area tonight. With mostly clear skies,
temperatures will be in the -5 to -15F across northwestern
Wisconsin, and -15 to -25 across northern Minnesota. With winds
at 3-6mph, wind chill values will again fall below -30F for much
of northern MN, and another Cold Weather Advisory will be needed
for tonight through Thursday morning.

Airmass starts to moderate into Friday, with low level winds
becoming southerly and warm advection occurring ahead of the
next storm system. Highs on Friday will be closer to normal,
with highs in the teens to lower 20s. Snow showers will develop
Friday afternoon through the evening, ahead of a surface low
moving out of the Central Plains. There is a 40-60% chance of at
least 2 inches of snowfall for locations south of the Iron Range
and across northwestern WI. Drier air returns for the weekend,
with another push of arctic air into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

High clouds streaming across northwest WI this morning, and
expect coverage of those clouds to expand through the day.
Variable winds at 3-6kts are expected, as high pressure over the
regions weakens today. VFR conditions expected through most of
the forecast period for most terminals.

MVFR cigs are expected after 13/00Z at HYR, as a system moves
well to our south. Low chances of snow showers should remain
just south and east of HYR this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 343 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Surface high pressure is moving across the Upper Midwest
providing southwesterly winds around 5 to 10 knots across the
Lake. Winds will turn northwesterly this afternoon and evening,
as the surface high continues eastward, while maintaining
similar speeds. Winds will increase from the north tonight, at
10-15kts.

Satellite and radar continues to show lake effect convergence
bands extending from the western arm of Lake Superior up toward
Rock of Ages and Isle Royale. This area of snowfall will
persist and slowly migrate north toward the North Shore this
morning, before dissipating.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA