465
FXUS63 KDLH 121133
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
633 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds will occur today with on and off rain showers
  through the day. Periodic gusts of 35 to 45 mph today.

- Seasonable temps and dry conditions early to mid this week
  give way to higher, widespread rain chances late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Strong high pressure centered over Quebec and low pressure
deepening over the ND/MT/SK border region of the Plains keeps a
strong southerly low-level jet over the Upper Midwest this
morning. Scattered rain showers are ongoing in northwest
Minnesota, but a few rain showers have spilled over into north-
central Minnesota. This keeps some 20 to 40 percent chance rain
showers in an area west of US Hwy 53 in northern Minnesota for
much of today.

Ongoing gusty southeast winds have been observed from 20 to 30
mph pre-sunrise this morning for the Brainerd Lakes to
Koochiching County. Forecast high-res model soundings indicate
that low-level jet keeping 40 to 50 knot winds about 1-2 kft
above ground level that has yet to be overcome to mix down to
the surface. The forecast keeps inline with around 40 mph wind
gusts today, but localized and periodic wind gusts around 45 mph
are not out the realm of possibilities (40% chance from high-
res ensemble guidance). The most likely timing would be sunrise
to mid-afternoon today in and the Brainerd Lakes and western
Iron Range. For now the region remains without any wind- related
headlines, but this will be monitored for any possible issuance
needs yet this morning.

As the low-level jet pushes eastward into the MN/WI stateline
region this afternoon, the chance of the gustiest winds also
decreases...while still gusting 30 to 35 mph. These strong
southerly winds persist over northwest Wisconsin through the
early overnight hours tonight, especially for the high terrain
of the South Shore.

As the low-level jet associated rain showers push through
Minnesota into this afternoon, a trailing cold front moves into
north-central Minnesota. This draws up another plume of moisture
and initiates a more widespread band of rainfall in central
Minnesota late afternoon today. Expect this band to lift through
far northeast Minnesota this evening and into northwest
Wisconsin late evening and early overnight. The forecast
continues to call for one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch of
rainfall by the time the cold front exits northwest Wisconsin
late tonight.

Westerly winds behind the cold front remain gusty along and
north of US Hwy 2 Monday daytime, highest in the Arrowhead and
Borderlands of Minnesota where gusts to 30 mph are expected.

Seasonable temperatures and dry weather is expected for Monday
through Wednesday daytime ahead of the next round of rain
showers building into the Upper Midwest Wednesday night into
Thursday. More widespread light to locally moderate rainfall is
forecast Thursday daytime into night with a deep low pressure
system progged on global deterministic guidance. As this US
Plains system lifts northeastward Friday/Saturday, a reinforcing
colder air mass drops into the north-central US from northern
Canada. This could be a start of a pattern favoring more near-
normal temperatures in the Upper Midwest beginning late next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Ongoing gusty southeast winds at 15 knots gusting to 25 knots
quickly increase to gusts of 35 knots from 13-15Z today,
especially first in north-central Minnesota. The gusts are due
to a low- level jet of strong southerly winds just off the
surface. Rain showers mainly again in north- central Minnesota
early this morning slowly move eastward into northeast
Minnesota later this morning. Expect even better coverage of
rain showers later this afternoon and evening as a second round
builds in from the south early afternoon today and lifts
northeastward into the evening hours today...all out ahead of an
incoming cold front. There will also be a wind shift to
southwesterly around 03-06Z late this evening and another wind
shift to westerly around 06-09Z Sunday night as that cold front
moves through the area. As the cold front passes over the region
expect a downturn in rain shower activity from west to east
tonight and dry weather by the end of this TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Gusty southeasterly winds will occur today across all western
waters, with gusts to 25 knots into this evening. Wave forecasts
range from 2 to 5 feet. These wave and wind conditions will
create periods hazardous to Small Crafts so Small Craft
Advisories are in effect today through Monday morning. As a
cold frontal passage occurs late tonight, a wind shift to
southwesterly then westerly will occur. Winds remain gusty into
Monday daytime especially along the North Shore so an Advisory
remains in effect near Grand Marais into Monday afternoon.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-141-
     144>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
     Monday for LSZ142-143.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy