804
FXUS63 KDLH 061126
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
626 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of rain showers with some isolated embedded thunderstorms
through midday bring light rainfall. Canadian wildfire smoke may
produce poor air quality for portions of northern MN.

- Another system late Saturday through Monday is expected to bring
another shot at rain and thunderstorms, with a 40-80% chance for a
widespread 0.5"+.

- Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend before a return
  to normal. Another chance for widespread accumulating rain
  late next week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Areas of rain showers continue to expand into the Northland early
this morning, progged to continue pushing ESE through today.
Rainfall rates have been fairly light but steady which should
continue. Looking at an additional several hundredths to a couple
tenths of an inch possible, with a couple locally higher amounts
possible where an isolated thunderstorm is able to pop up. The best
synoptic forcing for this system is expected to push out of the
Northland by midday, but lingering moisture may be able to combine
forces with afternoon heating and steep low level lapse rates to pop
up some scattered popcorn showers later today. Canadian wildfire
smoke lingers along the International Border through this evening
and down Western Lake Superior today - an Air Quality Alert remains
in effect from MPCA.

We should have a brief period from late this evening through midday-
ish Saturday without precipitation in the CWA before the next round
starts rolling in. A wound up low should begin to drop out of Canada
late Saturday into Sunday morning, pushing across the Upper Midwest
through Monday. This disturbance is currently visible in satellite
PW imagery sliding off the lee side of the Canadian Rockies. Also
visible is the pool of near surface to mid level high PWATs coming
off the Gulf into the central CONUS. This pool should be pulled
north as that low sweeps down from Canada, bringing a boost of
moisture to the primary synoptic system and increase chances for
rain ahead of it. Current guidance shows forecasted PWATs of 0.9-
1.4", around the 80-90th percentile of climatology for this time of
year. There has been a notable trend upwards in chances for
scattered showers on Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of the
Saturday evening cold front. This afternoon cloudiness combined with
a trend towards a slower progression of the cold front into our area
has taken what was already a pretty low chance of severe storms and
chopped it in half. There could be some gustier winds (30-40mp)
along the cold front along with some brief heavy rains. As upper
level low pushes SE through Monday, additional light to moderate
wrap around precipitation should make it through the area.

While QPF guidance has narrowed in spread and this system looks like
it could be a good rain maker, we still hold some reservations with
this forecast package on the higher amounts. Deterministic guidance
continues to show significant areas of mid level dry air which could
entrain into showers and storms. Latest NBM guidance has seen low
end guidance come up (10th percentile now 0.2-0.4" compared to 0.03-
0.2" 24 hours ago) while high end guidance stays persistent (90th
percentile 1-1.5"), this still leaves a large spread for a system
where the bulk of the heaviest precipitation should theoretically be
front-loaded along a progressive cold front moving through overnight
into Sunday midday. For now, our forecast QPF falls around the 50th
percentile of guidance. The cut-off low nature of the system could
bring at least a couple days of cloudy conditions, but with NW flow
coming in behind it, some Canadian wildfire smoke could be dragged
along as well.

Longer range guidance continue to show an increase in PWATs in the
second half of next week into the weekend, with another chance for
rain on the horizon. CPC hazard outlooks continue to put our area in
a slight risk of heavy precipitation for June 13-19 as a Bermuda
High sets up, allowing for a persistent southeasterly push of
moisture into the central CONUS that weak disturbances coming off
the Rockies may be able to turn into chances for good rains - it
will just be a matter of time to determine if our moisture-parched
neck of the woods will get to benefit.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Areas of rain showers continuing into this morning are expected to
bring MVFR cigs and vis to BRD, DLH, and HYR. There is about a 15-
20% chance of some IFR visibilities with these showers. Near-surface
smoke at INL will continue to lead to MVFR vis, but should slowly
improve through the day. Areas of showers should depart the area
through this morning, though there is a 15-20% chance of some
isolated afternoon showers popping up. Light winds expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Mostly light and variable winds are expected today, with an onshore
light lake breeze in the afternoon and early evening. There could be
some localized acceleration towards the head of the lake in the late
afternoon/early evening leading to some gusts up to 15 knots and
waves of 1-2 feet for the Twin Ports. East to northeast winds are
expected across Western Lake Superior Saturday, with some stronger
gusts of 15-20 knots possible for the Twin Ports. Areas of rain
showers are expected through early afternoon today, and then another
round of rain showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens