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FXUS63 KDLH 051137
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
637 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized areas of dense fog are possible through sunrise.
  Portions of the South Shore and locations at the head of the
  lake have the greatest chance of visibilities below 1 mile.

- The next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms begins
  overnight Saturday into Sunday. More widespread rainfall
  arrives Monday through Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of strong to severe weather for northern
  Minnesota Sunday and Monday, with more widespread potential on
  Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior
  early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Widespread low clouds and fog persist over the Northland this
morning. Given the saturated near surface layer, drizzle has
also been persistent overnight. Clouds have kept temperatures
warmer than previously expected, with most locations still in
the 60s at 3AM. Foggy conditions will improve with sunrise, with
low clouds lingering through the morning for most of the area.
Temperatures today will top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

With surface high pressure centered to our northeast, winds will
be light away from the shore lines. Breezy east winds off of
western Lake Superior will be be weaker today, with a lower
swim risk. If wind speeds trend upward, will need to re-assess
the swim risk and potential for rip currents.

The reminder of the forecast remains on track, with a break in
showers today, before a more active pattern returns Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The break in active weather ends very early Sunday morning as
thunderstorms return then for the rest of the Holiday weekend.
As instability surges into the region, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. This
environment will also be characterized by a very moist airmass,
bringing the threat of heavy rainfall alongside any severe
hazards. If it can form, low confidence right now, severe
weather would mainly be limited to north- central Minnesota and
the Borderlands Sunday afternoon to evening before quickly
decreasing environmental favorability into northeast Minnesota.

Widespread light to moderate wetting rainfall is forecast for Labor
Day Monday, especially from the afternoon through Tuesday morning
as a dynamic low pressure system approaches. This would be
another day of low-end severe weather chances for severe
weather potentially in northern Minnesota, but much lesser
favorability into northwest Wisconsin.

By Tuesday afternoon though, the more likely severe weather
chances for the region, cross over the entire Northland and
could be a day to watch given the more notable forcing combining
with a highly moist atmosphere. The instability though appears
to be a narrow corridor that will have to line up with daytime
heating to erode any mid-level capping.

Gale force wind gusts from easterly winds will impact the North
Shore on Monday, reaching up to 40 mph. As the system moves
northeastward, winds will shift to southerly for the coastal
North Shore near and just offshore of the Grand Portage area,
where gusts to 40 mph are possible again on Tuesday.

Expect a third wind shift and even stronger westerly winds behind
a cold frontal passage on Wednesday morning. Gusts of 30 mph are
forecast for land areas on Wednesday, with Lake Superior waters
exceeding 40 mph. Gale Watches may be needed in time for the
coastal nearshore waters. After this wet and windy early to mid
next week time period, only very limited rain shower coverage is
expected to end next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Low stratus and fog/drizzle will be slow to improve this
morning, with MVFR cigs lingering through mid day at most
terminals. The poorest conditions are expected at DLH where
upslope flow will continue LIFR ceilings, IFR to LIFR
visibility, and occasional drizzle through 18Z. Winds will be
from the northeast this morning at 6-7kts.

As cigs improve this afternoon, winds will turn to the
southeast, at 5-10kts. Another round of fog is possible late
tonight, particularly at the head of the lake, with possibly
impacts at DLH, HIB, and HYR. Scattered showers will move into
the BRD area late in the forecast period, after 06/06Z.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current northeast winds over western Lake Superior are gusting
to 10-15kts, with low clouds and patchy fog possible,
particularly near the Twin Ports. Northeast winds continue
through today, at 10-15kts, with gusts to 20kts. More active
weather returns Sunday into early next week, with several
opportunities for showers and storms. In addition, easterly
winds increase Monday evening, with gusts to 25kts along
portions of the North Shore. Gale force gusts of 25 to 30 knots
are expected, possibly up to 35 knots are along the North Shore
on Tuesday from the south, and extend to portions of the South
Shore on Wednesday, as winds become northwesterly.Gale Watches
will likely be needed for at least one day early to mid next
week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 50
percent through the weekend as abundant moisture stays in place.
East to southeast winds will generally remain under 15 mph today.
Widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday
into Tuesday, with potentially over 1 inch of rainfall along and
north of the Iron Range during that timeframe. Winds will
increase significantly next week, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph on
land starting Monday and peaking on Wednesday behind a cold
front. Expect southeasterly winds Monday to shift to southerly
Tuesday with a secondary wind shift to northwesterly on
Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HA
DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
FIRE WEATHER...HA