198
FXUS63 KDLH 311136
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal to well-above normal temperatures for the next
  several days with near-critical fire weather conditions in the
  afternoons to early evenings due to low relative humidities.

- 20-50% chances for showers and a few general storms in the
  Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley late this afternoon
  into Monday.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are likely on Monday due to
  strong northeast winds and building waves leading to a high
  risk of rip currents for the beaches of Duluth and Superior.

- Better coverage of shower and thunderstorm chances return
  starting on Wednesday when we transition back to a more
  active weather pattern.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Early this Morning and Today:

Surface high pressure has settled over the Great Lakes during
the current overnight hours, which is leading to an easing of
winds across the Northland. Some mid- and upper-level shortwave
energy to our southwest is kicking off some light rain shower
activity in southern and west-central MN, but this activity will
remain south of the Northland through the morning hours. Expect
low temperatures to range from low to mid 50s in north-central
MN and portions of inland NW WI to mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

For today, while upper-level ridging largely remains overhead,
the aforementioned shortwave energy does nudge into portions of
the Brainerd Lakes east into the St. Croix River Valley for late
this afternoon/evening and tonight. There is a 20% to locally
50% chance for a line of scattered rain showers and perhaps a
couple weak thunderstorms (10-20% chance) in the aforementioned
areas, but drier low-level air may keep much of this
precipitation from reaching the ground. Forecast accumulations
are less than 0.1-0.2" and limited in coverage.

The main concern for today will be for near-critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon into early evening as minimum
relative humidities dip to 15-25% for the Iron Range into
Arrowhead and areas north. The remainder of the Northland will
largely be in the 25-40% minimum relative humidity range as
cloud cover will be higher for southern portions of the
Northland, though a few pockets of 20-25% RH can be expected in
north-central and inland NW WI. East to southeast winds will
largely be on the lighter side today at 5-10 mph with gusts
remaining less than 20 mph except on a localized basis in the
Brainerd Lakes, so conditions do not warrant a need for Red Flag
Warnings. Look for high temperatures in the 70s to 80s--cooler
at the Twin Ports and immediately near Lake Superior--before a
Lake Breeze pushes inland during the afternoon and evening.


Monday - Tuesday:

Low chances for showers (10-40%) and isolated storms linger into
daytime Monday as the shortwave energy lingers in the Brainerd
Lakes to St. Croix River Valley with nil to very light
additional rainfall accumulations. Otherwise, expect dry
conditions for the Northland for Monday and Tuesday. A pseudo-
omega blocking pattern aloft keeps the mid- and upper-level
ridge influence in the Northland through Tuesday, keeping high
temperatures above to well-above average both days in the upper
70s to 80s away from Lake Superior and cooler near the Lake.
Near-critical fire weather conditions continue for both
afternoons into early evenings due to low relative humidities,
but winds not being overly gusty should keep fire conditions
below Red Flag Warning criteria. Expect Lake Superior lake
breezes to also occur Monday and Tuesday afternoons into
evenings.

Breezy onshore winds on Monday into Monday evening at the head
of Lake Superior will likely lead to increasing waves and a high
risk for rip currents at the beaches of Duluth and Superior. A
Beach Hazard Statement will likely be needed.


Beyond Tuesday:

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. The
pattern becomes more active starting on Wednesday as

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Backdoor cold front has stalled out over western MN this afternoon
with some breezy northeast winds streaming across Lake Superior.
Still looking at a warm and dry day across the region, especially
away from Lake. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s before a Lake
breeze sweeps in later this afternoon. This breeze will quickly
reduce those temperatures into the 50s and 60s through the evening
hours.

Sunday-Tuesday:

Not a lot of changes on the horizon through the early portions of
next week. An omega block contorts itself a bit over the time period
with the Northland remaining on the outskirts of activity with upper
level ridging lingering over the region. A fairly classic set up
for the Northland albeit slightly warmer than normal with
temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s before a Lake Breeze comes
plowing through in the afternoon and evening hours. There will be
continued concern for some near critical fire weather conditions as
we dry out in the afternoon hours, but wind speeds are not expected
to be high enough to warrant any Red Flag Warnings. Sunday evening
into Monday there is some low chance (15-30%) PoPs across the
Brainerd Lakes as a shortwave pivots in from the southwest. Not a
consistent signal at this time but some of the CAMs want to form a
line of showers.

Midweek:

Cluster analysis has the omega blocking pattern breaking on
Wednesday with upper level ridging shifting to the east. This will
allow for southwest flow aloft and a return to a more active weather
pattern. PWATs will increase to over 1" with southerly surface winds
boosting dewpoints to above 60F. Instability will build back with
this influx of moisture increasing the chances (40-60%) for showers
and storms to develop. Upper level flow becomes more zonal with
several impulses moving across the region allowing for continued
precipitation chances through the end of the work week. A bit too
soon to really narrow down the potential for severe weather. At this
time there is some agreement amongst the 12Z suite of deterministic
guidance of bringing an upper level jet into northern MN on
Wednesday. Paired with the instability could bring about some
stronger storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Outside of scattered sprinkles in the vicinity of KBRD early this
morning, expect dry conditions today with VFR conditions through the
period. Winds will be from the east-southeast, easing tonight.
Another round of light rain chances arrive over KBRD tonight into
early Monday morning with visibility and cigs most likely to
remain VFR. There are indications of patchy fog early Monday
morning, but opted against reducing visibility given that the
probability is a low 25% chance at this time.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Winds weaken during the current overnight hours with waves also
diminishing. Variable winds become northeast once again today
into this evening at 5-10 kt, with gusts to around 15 kt in the
southwest arm of Lake Superior during the daylight hours leading
to wave heights of 1-2 ft near the Twin Ports. Winds become
variable and light again Sunday night, then increase out of the
Northeast on Monday at 10-20 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt building
waves to 2-5 ft. Strongest winds will be northeast of Taconite
Harbor, in the Outer Apostle Islands, and the southwest arm of
Lake Superior. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected once again
for portions of northeast Minnesota including the Arrowhead,
Iron Range, and areas north to the International Border. These
areas have the least potential for cloud cover to inhibit mixing
today, and Min RH is forecast to dip to 15-25% this afternoon
with southeast winds of 4-8 mph, afternoon gusts of around 9-15
mph and high temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elsewhere in
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, expect 25-40% min
RH, though pockets of 20-25% min RH may still be found in
portions of north-central and inland northwest Wisconsin.
Similarly light wind conditions can be found in these other
locations, as well, with the caveat that the Brainerd Lakes
could see occasional afternoon gusts of 15-18 mph. A lake breeze
is also expected to push inland during the afternoon and
evening.

Can`t rule out some scattered light rain showers and perhaps a
storm or two (20-50% chance) late this afternoon through daytime
Monday in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley, but nil
to localized 0.1-0.2" of rain are expected. Overall, warm and
dry conditions are favored for Monday and Tuesday across
northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with similarly
lighter winds and locations of lower RH on Monday, while 20-30%
min RH coverage is wider on Tuesday but winds remain largely
lighter.

Better rain shower and thunderstorm chances return starting Wednesday,
with off and on rain chances through the latter half of the
week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Rothstein
FIRE WEATHER...Rothstein