235
FXUS63 KDLH 161136
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky conditions continue throughout this week.

- Dangerous swim conditions today for the Twin Ports beaches
  along Lake Superior from a high rip current risk.

- Level 1 of 5 storm risk Thursday night into Friday for
  isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Another
  round possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Another round of dangerous heat is possible Friday for the
  Brainerd Lakes to WI/MN Stateline area.

- Potential early week fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The smoky conditions will continue today and into Friday for
much of the region. Visibility guidance is pointing towards a
brief break in the thickest smoke late morning to mid-afternoon
today before another round quickly moves across the Northland
again late afternoon to tonight. Air Quality Alerts remain in
effect for both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Easterly winds today are forecast from 3 to 7 mph, except along
the South Shore and Twin Ports where afternoon and evening gusts
to 20 mph are likely from a strong lake breeze. This lake
breeze strengthens wind gust speeds to 15 mph from east to west
as it moves inland over northeast Minnesota late this afternoon
and into this evening.

Those strong lake breeze winds creating a high risk for rip
currents in the Twin Ports this afternoon and evening were the
driver behind the Beach Hazards Statement issued this morning.
This covers mainly Minnesota Point and Wisconsin Point beaches
along Lake Superior in the Twin Ports.

Scattered rain showers are forecast today along and north of
the Iron Range where localized pockets of rainfall from one-
tenth to one-quarter inch could fall under the strong showers.
The more likely scenario though is evident in much lower
rainfall amounts. Modeled moisture profiles for the low to mid-
levels though show a similar signature as what occurred
yesterday in this similar area. Stripes of mid-level moisture
produce a Trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall, but
the dry low-levels and little to no forcing for ascent limits
any meaningful rainfall amounts. For this case, the Chances of
rainfall early this morning and during the daytime today were
capped at 30% in the forecast.

Isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Thursday
night into Friday early morning. The most likely area for any
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are far north-
central MN Thursday night, then spanning eastward into the
Arrowhead early Friday morning. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph are most likely from any strong thunderstorms
in this time. Friday daytime seems multiple rounds of scattered
thunderstorms still behind the morning strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm risk (Level 1 of 5). A secondary round of a
few strong thunderstorms are again possible in the Arrowhead
and northwest Wisconsin late Friday afternoon into the evening
hours depending how much environmental recovery can occur behind
the morning convection. The mesoscale forcing for Friday
afternoon is progged in guidance to be stronger than the
morning round, which could aid in that secondary round of Level
1 of 5 strong to marginally severe thunderstorms depending on
that recovery.

For locations to the south, the combination of dewpoints back
into the upper-60s and mid-90s for the Brainerd Lakes to I-35
corridor and far western inland Wisconsin districts has concerns
for Extreme Heat potential Friday afternoon. Heat Advisories are
likely to be needed in time, but potentially limited-coverage
Extreme Heat Warnings too.

The incoming cold front for the Friday convection passes over
the region Friday night to result in a wind shift on Saturday
back to north-northwesterly. This could aid in keeping smoke
from regional wildfires over the Northland even this weekend.

On Sunday, warm temperatures setup with lower MinRHs back into
the low-30% range. An incoming strong cold front drops southward
Sunday night. Keep an eye out on the forecast for this Sunday
night into Monday morning time period too for a low-end Severe
Weather potential time period. The post-cold frontal period on
Monday creates a wind shift with an uptick in northwesterly wind
speeds. Monday would be a day to watch for near-critical fire
weather conditions due to those strong northwest winds even as
MinRHs may recover into the upper-30 percent range.

Seasonable temperatures and a mainly rain-free forecast sets up
for Tuesday onward next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the rest of the day, a stalled frontal boundary remains
stretched across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
Dewpoints are gradually dropping from north to south behind this
boundary. Thick wildfire smoke advecting southwestward is
keeping temperatures cooler than previously expected.
Consequently, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled for several
central areas, but a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM
this evening along our southern tier of counties. With very dry
air in place, near- critical fire weather is possible this
afternoon and evening from the Iron Range northward. Tonight,
skies will be mostly cloudy with smoke thickening, while a few
isolated showers could clip the far northern borderlands after
midnight.

On Thursday, wildfire smoke will continue to linger across the
Northland due to persistent northwesterly flow and very poor
atmospheric mixing. Highs will remain unseasonably warm in
the 80s for most inland locations. However, a lake breeze
developing over Lake Superior will keep coastal areas cooler,
in the 70s and lower 80s. This onshore wind will also increase
the risk of dangerous rip currents at Twin Ports beaches. Rain
chances will slowly rise through the day, with scattered light
showers and perhaps a few isolated, non-severe thunderstorms
developing by Thursday afternoon, particularly across northern
Minnesota and near the international border.

By Friday, a brief reprieve from the thickest smoke may occur
as low-level winds shift to the southwest ahead of a cold
front. This front is forecast to trigger widespread showers
and thunderstorms starting late Thursday night and continuing
through Friday. Rainfall of a quarter-inch to a half-inch is
generally expected, with localized amounts up to an three
quarters of an inch. While this rain is highly beneficial for
the wildfires up north, the potential for lightning in the dry
Arrowhead raises concerns for new wildfire starts. A few severe
storms are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as
well, with damaging winds and large hail possible. High
temperatures will vary widely on Friday, ranging from the humid
upper 80s to cooler 70s along the North Shore within the lake
breeze.

As the cold front exits to the east, dry and sunny conditions
will return for Saturday. High temperatures will generally rise
into the 80s. However, the post-frontal northwesterly flow will
likely pull thick wildfire smoke back into the region. Places
that get the thick smoke will likely have lower high
temperatures than forecast. Sunday will start mostly sunny and
warm, with highs once again reaching the 80s to near 90 degrees.
A weak shortwave passing through could trigger a few isolated
showers or storms by late Sunday afternoon, but most areas will
remain dry.

A stronger weather system is forecast to cross the region Sunday
night into Monday as an upper-level low tracks to our north.
This system will bring another round of much-needed
precipitation to the area. Once this system exits, dry and
smoky conditions are expected to resume for much of next week. A
cooler, more seasonal air mass will filter in behind this
second front, bringing relief from the recent heat as daytime
highs trend back into the comfortable 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions continue with periodic LIFR visibilities
as wildfire smoke persists this TAF period. Expect some rain
showers and potentially isolated non-severe thunderstorms along
and north of the Iron Range today and tonight. Easterly winds
gust to 20 knots today for the Twin Ports and South Shore.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 134 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots today gust to 25 knots in the
Twin Ports and a period of hazardous conditions are expected
this afternoon and evening in the southwest arm. A Small Craft
Advisory was issued due to those expected conditions from Two
Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing through sunset this evening.
Northeast winds remain overnight and into Friday, but are
forecast to be lighter than today near the Twin Ports so right
now a Small Craft Advisory does not seem needed for Friday in
the southwestern arm.

The ongoing dense smoke over all of the western waters will
persist through today, but could be slight periods of
improvement to a few nautical miles this afternoon before
settling back in again below 1 nm by this evening. That Dense
Marine Smoke Advisory was extended in time for all waters to now
expire at 10 AM Friday morning. If future forecasts indicate
continued trends of this marine smoke lingering, another
extension in time maybe needed for that Advisory.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity today ranges from 38-48 percent across
all districts today. Easterly 20 foot winds today are forecast
from 3 to 7 mph, except along the South Shore and Twin Ports
where afternoon gusts to 20 mph are likely from the ongoing lake
breeze. This lake breeze strengthens wind gust speeds to 15 mph
from east to west in northern Minnesota as it moves inland late
this afternoon and into this evening.

Scattered rain showers are forecast today along and north of
the Iron Range where localized pockets of rainfall from one-
tenth to one-quarter inch could fall under the strong showers.
Isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out even Thursday
night into Friday early morning. The most likely area for any
strong thunderstorms are far north-central MN Thursday night to
the Arrowhead early Friday morning. Marginally large hail and
gusty, erratic wind gusts are most likely from any strong
thunderstorms in this time. A wind shift to southeasterly is
forecast Friday morning as a warm front moves into the Upper
Midwest. Another shift in winds to southwesterly by the
afternoon also brings a warm up in temperatures. The combination
of dewpoints back into the upper-60s and mid-90s for the
Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor and far western inland Wisconsin
districts has concerns for Extreme Heat potential Friday
afternoon. Wind speeds increase to 10 mph gusting to 20 mph by
Friday late afternoon and evening, but MinRHs are only forecast
from 40-60% Friday daytime. Friday daytime seems multiple rounds
of scattered thunderstorms still. A secondary round of a few
strong thunderstorms are again possible in the Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin late Friday afternoon into the evening
hours.

On Sunday, warm temperatures setup with lower MinRHs back into
the low-30% range. An incoming strong cold front drops southward
into Monday and creates a wind shift to northwesterly when
gusty northwest winds are forecast Monday. Monday would be a day
to watch for near-critical fire weather conditions due to those
strong northwest winds even as MinRHs may recover into the
upper-30 percent range.


See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this
     evening for MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this
     evening for WIZ001.
MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NLy
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy
FIRE WEATHER...NLy