247
FXUS63 KDLH 160828
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of low clouds and drizzle this morning will transition
  to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Areas of fog,
  potentially dense, will be possible tonight into early Monday
  morning.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances arrive Monday afternoon and
  evening along a cold front. A few storms may be strong,
  especially in the Brainerd Lakes area, capable of producing
  small hail and gusty winds.

- Dry and cooler weather is forecast for Tuesday into Wednesday,
  with additional rain chances and slightly warmer temps late in
  the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Low pressure, currently located in northern Ontario, will be
propagating east today as a 500mb shortwave trough moves downstream.
An occluded front associated with this sfc low has been sweeping
through the CWA, with the main lingering impact early this morning
being low cloud cover and patchy drizzle. Northwest post-frontal
flow is expected to occur today, ushering in a drier airmass from
Canada and decreasing cloud cover. There will be the potential for
scattered light rain showers in the Arrowhead this morning, with
model soundings from CAMs indicating weak low-level instability and
saturation. By the afternoon, precipitation is expected to come to
an end as dry air advection continues.

Northwest winds will be easing this evening as high pressure briefly
builds over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. These light winds
combined with diurnal cooling will likely lead to patchy fog
development tonight into early Monday morning. Some of this fog may
become dense for the Monday morning commute, with the 00z HREF
showing a 25-35% chance for visibility of 1/2 mile of less from St.
Louis County to the I-35 corridor and across northwest Wisconsin.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives on Monday into
Monday night as a 500mb shortwave and attendant sfc cold front move
into the CWA. Expect cloud cover to increase on Monday morning, with
showers and thunderstorms likely to arrive to the western CWA on
Monday afternoon. These showers and thunderstorms will move from
west to east across the area through the afternoon and evening as
the cold front sweeps through. A few of these storms may become
strong, especially in the Brainerd Lakes area, capable of producing
small hail and gusty winds. The better chance for severe
thunderstorms will mostly likely be southwest of the CWA in
southwest MN, with our neck of the woods being on the far northern
periphery of the highest CAPE values and deep moisture.

Following the cold frontal passage on Monday night, a drier pattern
is expected to settle over the CWA for Tuesday through Wednesday
night. Of note will be unseasonably cool temperatures, especially on
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning where low temps in the
low 40s are forecast. The latter half of the workweek will see
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms as the pattern
aloft remains active. High pressure remains favored for next
weekend, with high temps ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Largely MVFR to IFR cigs are occurring early this morning, with
isolated pockets of LIFR conditions. The expectation through the
period is that overcast skies will gradually clear by the afternoon
as drier air moves into the area. Before skies fully become mostly
clear, there will be the potential for scattered VFR rain showers in
the Arrowhead this morning. Northwest winds will be breezy at times
late this morning into the afternoon. As winds become calm tonight,
patchy fog will be possible towards the end of the 06z TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Northwest winds are expected today following an occluded frontal
passage that occurred overnight. Winds will generally be around 5 to
10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, with highest gusts expected this
morning. Expect to see decreasing cloud cover and easing winds
tonight as high pressure briefly builds into the region. Winds shift
to the west-southwest on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed along the North Shore,
especially from Grand Marais to Grand Portage, on Monday as these
west-southwest winds gust as high as 25 knots in the afternoon and
waves build up to 4 feet. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase
late Monday afternoon and continue through the evening as the
aforementioned cold front sweeps through.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Breezy northwest winds are expected to bring a drier airmass into
the area today, which will result in decreasing cloud cover through
the day and easing winds this evening as high pressure briefly
builds. Min RH this afternoon will generally be in the 45-55% range.
This drier airmass will be short-lived, as the next chance for
showers and thunderstorms arrives on Monday afternoon in north-
central Minnesota along a cold front. This cold front will sweep
west to east across the area on Monday into Monday night, shifting
southwest winds on Monday to the northwest by Tuesday morning. A few
thunderstorms may be strong on Monday afternoon and evening,
especially around the Brainerd Lakes, capable of producing small
hail as well as gusty and erratic winds.

Ahead of this cold front, min RH will be moderately dry in northwest
WI on Monday in the 35-40% range. Expect higher min RH for locations
farther west in Minnesota. High pressure settles into the area
following Monday night`s cold frontal passage, with Wednesday
expected to see the lowest min RH this week. Additional rain chances
arrive late in the week, with another period of high pressure
favored for next weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh
FIRE WEATHER...Unruh